Punters Favor Regional Parties

Though run illegally, Satta markets are suggesting big gains for Regional parties surpassing UPA & NDA individual tallies.

These are generally illegally run close-door, high on mobile telephony, hawala type transaction oriented markets, dwelling in forecast business. Corporate world, stock broking business, agrarian businesses & election results are few of their domains that have earned them a lot of recognition & respect from all sectors individually. So one must take their predictions seriously, considering they seem to be banking so much on their network of human intelligence, information technology & their past record based on gathering, collating & deciphering information. Quite interestingly, they have predicted huge gains for regional parties that cumulatively shall be more than the BJP & Congress party’s individual tallies. That being the case, they are the real dark horses who would determine who gets to the throne in Delhi. Come to think of it. Love them or hate them but you can’t ignore the betting experts. They are there to stay.

Make no mistake. 2019 Lok Sabha may well spring a surprise & a shocking one at that. This is one election that has been riddled with maximum controversies, maximum abuse & maximum violations. As we begin to draw curtains to the making of 17th Lok Sabha, we may well gird up our loins & fasten our seat belts for the ultimate flight of fancy come 23rd May. With the last stage only left for 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the impatience and anxiety among the people are soaring. More than who will the election, what people want to know is how many seats will the BJP get. From streets to homes, from offices to public transports, election and the possible outcome of 2019 Lok Sabha polls is dominating the debates. All kinds of speculations and guesses are doing rounds, and the betting market or the Satta Bazaar is sizzling in the political heat.According to the trend prevailing in betting market, at present, in comparison to the NDA and UPA, the third front or ‘mahagathabandhan’ may grab 225 to 250 seats.

This is what the host of betting syndicates is saying. Regional Parties will Leave NDA, UPA Behind as Rs 12,000 Cr Rides on Polls. Amid myriad predictions and possible scenarios, one thing that is consistent with most Satta Bazars is that the BJP will emerge as the single largest party. Reports suggest that the size of the election betting market stands at over a thousand crores, almost twice as big as it was in 2014. Physical betting and gambling are illegal across India. But the growth of the ‘satta’ market can be attributed to mobile apps and websites, as many of them operate from abroad where betting is legal. An India Today report says that payments are done through back-channels. The Seventh Schedule of the Constitution says that states have the rights to make laws and policies regarding “gambling and betting”. 

With more than Rs 12,000 crore placed in bets, the 2019 Lok Sabha election has a lot in stake, literally, for punters. Only one round of polling is remaining in which the fates of candidates in 59 seats would be decided.As the general election got underway, the campaign pitch touched surgical strikes, nationalism, welfare schemes (like Congress’ NYAY), Rafale and may end on fierce poll rhetoric around the Bofors issue.While gamblers are unsure about any party getting a majority, the battle between the two main opposition parties is likely to be a fierce one.

What is also of some concern is the eventualities that may unfold once it emerges that what the punters have predicted comes true. ‘Mahagathabandhan’ (grand alliance) may win a sizeable number of seats and lead to large-scale horse-trading and post-poll alliances. There is a possibility of a hung Parliament, as well.According to the betting market, the BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) may still manage to come to power.The betting in the favour of the NDA government is Rs 11, while for the Congress-led United Progressive Alliance (UPA) it is Rs 33.

Punters feel the NDA is likely to get 185-220 seats and the UPA may be confined to 160 to 180 seats.

According to speculators, the NDA is presently attracting a rate of Rs 2, while the Congress is getting a rate of Rs 1.5. If the bettors are to be believed, the saffron camp may not be able to reap the desired benefits of the ‘surgical strike’ in this election.Before the poll schedule was announced by the Election Commission, speculators had estimated about 250 seats for the BJP.According to the trend prevailing in betting market, at present, in comparison to the NDA and UPA, the third front or ‘mahagathabandhan’ may grab 225 to 250 seats.

Speculators in cities like Surat, Mumbai, Kolkata and Delhi believe the ‘mahagathabandhan’ may get a decisive number and fare better than the two main opposition parties.As far as Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP national president Amit Shah’s home state is concerned, there is bad news in store for the saffron camp.If speculators are to be believed, the BJP may lose as many as six seats in Gujarat this time.However, betting markets in Surat, Mumbai and Delhi have different views over this.According to those in Delhi, the BJP may win 22 seats in Gujarat, while the grand old party would have only four constituencies in its kitty. Punters in Surat and Mumbai feel 19 candidates of the saffron party may emerge winner in Gujarat, while seven seats would go to the Congress.The bettors’ arithmetic has predicted loss of two-three seats for the BJP in the Saurashtra region, two in north Gujarat and one in south Gujarat.In the Saurashtra region, however, the Congress may win Amreli, Surendranagar and Junagarh, while in the north, it may be a record win for the Rahul Gandhi-led party in Banaskantha and Patan. Valasad in the southern part of the state may also go to the Congress.