Trapped in Trump Card

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During Trump regime, Russia may be revering that it destabilized the petro dollar regime of the US but in actual, it’s Washington who would be swapping London with Moscow

By Chandan Kumar

By the end of 2016, a geo-politic development that gave shivers to the Indian diplomats was none other than the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which was seconded by its fair weather friend Russia — a development, which if true, can change the whole global political establishment post disintegration of the USSR. Russia not only seconded the ambitious $45 billion investment of China in the region which is an Indian part in J&K it went on to seal arms deal with the Indian arch rival. These are some developments which forced India to raise its concerns to the Russian ambassador in New Delhi but rather giving any proper explanation for such a sudden Moscow’s warmth towards Islamabad the Russian government announced to take proper action against the terror establishment in Syria and other parts of the Middle East.

Indian defense experts are of the opinion that Russia wants Indian government’s active participation in the Middle East, especially against the terror establishment ISIS. They further said that Russia is of the opinion that New Delhi shouldn’t be hesitant in participating in Moscow’s military operation in the Middle East. However, New Delhi has been maintaining that terrorism is not just Russian or Indian problem, its’ global disorder. India believes that there should be an international treaty seconded by the global platforms like the UN so that it becomes a binding on all its member nations to stand against any kind of terrorism and negate any room for good terrorism or bad terrorism — an idea which has been helping terror organizations to hide into the countries which are traditionally hostile to the countries where these terrorist outfits are operational. For example Lashkar-e-Taiba, ISIS, Boko Haram etc. have managed to survive because they have been supported by countries that enjoy common borders with the countries where these outfits are operational.

Majority of the diplomatic experts these days are found ideating that China has been trying hard to pare the US hostility towards its interest in the South China Sea, especially after the verdict of the international arbitration on South China Sea. Being know to this Beijing woes, Russia is trying to score in both regions. On one hand, it’s actuating Indian government to go ahead with its plan to sell its supersonic missile Brahmos and Aakash in the smaller countries in the South China Sea while on the other hand it is asking China to fix Pakistan as its proxy in the Middle East to help Moscow implement its plans. In return Moscow would ensure Chinese participation into the petro dollar war raised by Russia against the US. So, on one hand it is asking China to leave some of its interests into the South China Sea and asking India to take advantage of it while on the other hand it’s trying to destabilize the US petro dollar regime in the Middle East.

It would be interesting to know that Russia is transferring technology to India for developing Brahmos. Hence, it would be an indirect beneficiary of this development. On one hand it would claim on the global platforms that it placated China while implementing international arbitration verdict in the South China Sea while on the other hand it would be balancing the uni-polar petro dollar regime established by the US. The Russian plan is dangerous as it is averse to the Sunni dominated regime which it feels is soil to all kinds of Islamic terrorism.

Therefore, in coming days, we can expect huge political unrest in the Middle East while South China Sea is expected to slow down and the unrest being witnessed in the region for last few months is expected to drawn soon if the Russia-China-Pakistan troika is developed.

Ironically, while discussing these developments which are pregnant in the Russian think tank womb, the diplomatic experts failed to think about the US course of action. They talked as if Russia would continue to destroy its petro dollar regime and the US would see these moves as mute expectators. While talking about the Russian plans in the Middle East, they completely ignored an important player Israel in the South East Asia, who has strong bond with India. Recently, Indian president was on an official visit to Tel Aviv and had signed various MoU some fo them were in the field of defense as well. So, the US would also chip in through India in the South China Sea while it would easily warm its relationship with the Pakistani establishment by giving it leadership of the Middle East. So, this single step is enough to diffuse Russian-Chinese ploy to fix India.

Taking US perspective in mind, Washington has nothing to do with the terrorism and unrest in the Middle East as its major concern is its petro dollar regime and arms sale in the region on account of rising conflict in the region. Once Beijing is deviated from the South China Sea, Washington would cement its position through New Delhi by pumping its arms by transferring technology to India via make In India and would replicate the Moscow plan in the South China Sea via New Delhi. Similarly, it would give befitting reply to the Russian plan in the Middle East as it has strong control over the Sunni dominated nations in the Middle East and we have witnessed that in the case of Syria-Turkey war. But, yes, once Donald Trump takes over as the new US President, he might swap Moscow with London and in such a case the Russian plan we discussed earlier would actually be done after the nod from the White House.

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