If one were looking for election atmosphere in Jammu and Kashmir one would be totally disappointed as it is just missing. The State is still in the grip of hysteria created by terrorists and other peripheral issues like the efforts to bring in the Hurriyat Conference and other leaders belonging to the dissident groups to participate in the elections. The effort in this direction is not making headway as the entire exercise has started too late and is just not enough. The leaders sitting in Delhi are aware of the antipathy that people have developed towards the ruling National Conference and its leader, Dr. Farooq Abdullah, but they see no alternative emerging.

The Hurriyat Conference has many problems. It just cannot ignore the Pakistani pressure which literally gave them a road map which involved non-participation in elections and insistence on Pakistan being made a party before any dialogue can start. This was spelt out in clear terms by Gen. Pervez Musharaf in his speech on Pakistan's Independence day. This weighs heavy on the shoulders of the Hurriyat leadership which at present is demoralised and divided. The pressure exerted by the Western Powers has forced the Hurriyat to avoid giving a call for a poll boycott, but is no way near to becoming a participant in the elections. In private, Hurriyat leaders readily admit that they need a face-saver before they can go for elections as they owe an explanation to thousands of families who lost their near and dear ones in the ongoing struggle in Kashmir. Elections can hardly be sold as a gain for the movement which brought in its wake so much of suffering for the people as the price for compromise as this alternative was available or attainable in the past also. The result is that most of the Hurriyat leaders, finding themselves in a bind, are running away or becoming silent spectators. A lot of meaning is being read in the decision by Maulvi Farooq, past chairman of the Hurriyat Conference, to extend his stay abroad as part of his honeymoon and study tour.

The leaders of the Peoples’ Conference, that is the sons of A. G. Lone, who had taken on the leadership of the party after the killing of Lone and Shabir Shah, one-time firebrand in the dissident camp, are closer to agreeing to the idea of participating in the elections. If things move in the right direction even Maulvi Farooq can be persuaded to cut short his visit and return to take part in the elections. But this will not be adequate as without the active participation of the Jamait-e-Islami or its leader, Sayeed Ali Shah Gillani, the Hurriyat is not in a position to offer any credible challenge to the National Conference and this is one dilemma for which there is no solution.

The only reason which can persuade the Hurriyat to participate in the poll is an assurance that it will get a reasonable chance to emerge as the true representative of the Kashmiris in the contest, a possibility which looks remote at present in view of the election schedule announced and limited time available to them. As such, the Jethmalani Committee, in the words of a senior journalist in Kashmir, has come too late and is offering too little.

At this stage, one can not help but recall the events in 1975 which paved the way for the return of Sheikh Abdullah. He was made Chief Minister and allowed to have a Cabinet of his own choice while the Congress majority supported him from outside. The Sheikh was allowed a free hand and the party with a majority watched in silence while it was humiliated every day and made to eat humble pie on the plea that the return of the Sheikh and his men was in the national interest. There is no leader or party at the Centre which could even suggest to Dr. Abdullah or his followers to make a similar sacrifice to reach a compromise with the Hurriyat.

More so, there are also doubts whether the Centre, which has been blowing hot and cold in its relationship with Dr. Abdullah, is keen on such an arrangement. They would certainly like a free and fair election and they would also like as wide a representation as possible in the elections to gain credibility in the eyes of the world. But the maximum they can offer as a concession is placing the State under Governor’s rule or a limited postponement of the poll dates. This is just not enough to make even Shabir Shah or Maulvi Farooq or others to take the bait and swallow it.

It was this reality which helped in calming Dr. Abdullah who had earlier attacked the Kashmir Committee headed by Ram Jethmalani in very clear terms to come around and praise their efforts. There was a underlying message in his turnaround which was not lost on the people that all the efforts to bring the Hurriyat into the mainstream have failed and the field has been left open for the National Conference to return with its baggage of misrule intact. It is this feeling of helplessness which brings about a mood of despair and frustration as far as elections are considered in Jammu and Kashmir as they see no light at the end of the dark tunnel.