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Political Cross Roads Lalit Sethi
The political scene is truly perplexing-for all players of the game. The leftist threat to pull down the Government if it goes ahead with formal negotiations and finalizing the 123 agreement on the use of nuclear technology for energy and peaceful uses has failed to shock the Government. It appears to have picked up the gauntlet. It seems to have told the leftists to do their worst. Enough is enough. It has yielded sufficient ground. It has cajoled the Communist and sought their cooperation, but found them intransigent. The Communists say they are ready to lose elections or many seats, if their opposition to the 123 agreement will dispatch them to the wilderness, but they are confident that their principles will stand them in good stead. Many in the country, including the BJP, wonder if they are indeed principled or just rigid and inflexible, unwilling to listen to the other point of view. The Opposition, mainly the BJP, should have normally been pleased that the Government is about to fall, even without their bringing it down. But it is far from happy. It feels as if it has been caught napping. It had wanted the leftists to join hands with them to pull the government down, but they knew the Communists will never do so. Now when they are precisely ready and willing to do that, they are shocked. Even though the leader of the Opposition, Mr. L.K.Advani, told party men around the country to prepare for early elections, he might well be flabbergasted if it happens all too soon. The BJP is a house badly divided. There is a furious debate going on over the question who is the tallest leader in the party. Mr. Advani claims he is. But nobody in his party, except his coterie, agrees with him. He is some kind of a loner. A letter from Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who is ailing that he hopes to recover soon and be with BJP friends, ended all hopes for Mr. Advani to the crowded in near future. As if to spoil his party, the Rashtriya Swayam Sewak Sangh or the RSS has laid down that Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpyaee is the man, who in their reckoning should be the next Prime Minister since he is the Chairman of the National Democratic Alliance, the coalition which governed the nation for six years from 1998 to 2004. He is still very much around. That leaves Mr. Advani less enthused, or not even interested in early elections. There is nothing in them for him. The question whether the BJP and its allies will win elections, if and when they are held, is not his concern. He wishes to be crowned even before it is time to choose the king. He thinks he is the shadow Prime Minister. Why is the BJP worried about early elections? The main reason is that Gujarat, once its stronghold, is in disarray, at least the BJP, which rules the State, is in total disarray. The Chief Minister, Mr. Narendra Modi, once the flag bearer of the Hindutva, is opposed by a strong rebel group and even by the arch protagonists of Hindutva, especially Mr. Togadia, general secretary of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad. Gujarat goes to the polls in the near future. All parties are looking at the trends in Gujarat as a pointer to the prospects of different contenders for the General Elections. The BJP is no longer sure of retaining the State in view of the deep fissures in the party and the fractured nature of the party cadres led by Mr. Keshobhai Patel and Mr. Modi. Efforts by the central leaders of the party to reconcile them to each other and resolve their differences have apparently failed. That leaves the BJP in some kind of distress. The BJP might feel strongly that the Government at the Centre will be defeated in the General Elections because of the incumbency factor but is countered by the fact that the BJP faces the incumbency factor in at least six States. To that add the deep rivalries within the party framework as dissidents do not accept the Chief Ministers in any of them. Even Ms. Uma Bharati has started a new revolt. She was expected to dissolve her own party and return to the fold, but that has not happened. Mr. Madanlal Khurana of Delhi was also expected to rejoin the BJP, but that also has not happened as yet. The Government may be aware that retail prices are rising by the day for a number of reasons, including this year's worst floods in 30 years, and leaving 20 million in Bihar alone, still in distress. Energy prices are rising as the international price of crude has touched $82 a barrel. The price paid by Indian refiners is above $75, but with world supplies not being stepped up by the Organization of Petroleum Producing Countries or OPEC, the coming winter could push them up to $90 per barrel unless OPEC takes steps soon to keep the prices in check by not allowing the market forces to make a fast buck. But the market forces are beyond them: they are in New York and London where the daily prices are determined on the bases of supplies, which appear to be inelastic. Food prices are an area of real concern in India and wheat, rice and vegetables are dearer than ever. It may not hurt or concern the rich and upper middle classes, but the middle class and the poor are hard hit and they are the voters. The rich generally do not go to the polling booth as they do not wish to rub shoulders with the hoi-polloi. Would they consider voting in special polling booths? They may, but that would be negation of democracy or professed democracy; absolutely against the grain of adult suffrage and the concept of rule by popular mandate. The Government has, indeed, started a guessing game about elections and has left all parties unsure whether the rulers of the day will take the plunge or not. The issue at stake is whether the Prime Minister thinks that he can no longer take leftist threats lying down and is ready to let them do their worst because he appears committed to the 123 agreement. But all parties, including the Opposition, know that the final decision lies with the Chairperson of the United Progressive Alliance, Mrs. Sonia Gandhi, on whether or not to go to the brink and allow the Prime Minister to face a defeat in the Lok Sabha. He leads the Government, but is not the leader of the House since he is not a member of the chamber, but has been elected to the Upper House. | |
The
BJP does not know what to do with the opportunity of an early poll: it
can cash in on the anti-incumbency factor but then has also to face the
same factor in the six States that are to go to polls. Add to it the
fact that old Advani has still not been anointed as the prime
ministerial candidate! The Congress too faces the dilemma of calling the
Left bluff and then face the consequences of the rising prices and cost
of living.
