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Pakistan's military kitted for new
power
By Syed Saleem Shahzad
The political endgame in Pakistan is expected very soon. Meanwhile,
Washington has also broadened its contacts to include the Pakistan Army,
as the military is a key player in the country and any breakdown of
Musharraf's military-backed government would be a severe loss not only
to the army but the Americans too. That is why military too has been
included in the negotiations with Bhutto.
Pakistan has established itself over the past six years as the strongest
link in the West's chain of influence in South and Central Asian
countries whose internal stability is linked to progress toward Western
goals in the region, especially in the US-led "war on terror".
Pakistan's military establishment has used this for both its de facto
and de jure rule and for its broader strategic regional goals.
Therefore, when US Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte arrived in
Pakistan recently, after visiting Afghanistan, he is speculated to have
finalized a blueprint for a fresh and aggressive two-pronged US approach
to defeat radical Islamists in Afghanistan and to nurture a new popular
political leadership in Pakistan.
The major contractor of US policy in Pakistan will remain the military,
which, under President General Pervez Musharraf, aims for a smooth
political transition of power from civilian-military rule to complete
civilian rule.
Amid much publicity, former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif arrived in
Pakistan after seven years in exile, only to be deported within a few
hours. Lebanese leader Saad Hariri and Saudi Prince Muqrin bin Abdul
Aziz were in Islamabad to persuade Sharif to return to exile in Saudi
Arabia to avoid muddying the region's political waters.
The Supreme Court's decision to allow Sharif - ousted in a coup by
Musharraf in 1999 - to return to Pakistan came at a time when Washington
and Islamabad were putting the final touches to the formation of a
consensus government between Musharraf and another former prime
minister, Benazir Bhutto. Under this arrangement, Musharraf is likely to
be re-elected as president, after which he will shed his uniform and
position as army chief of staff and share power with Bhutto. The aim is
to bring more stability to Pakistan, as Musharraf currently faces
widespread popular opposition.
The real battle in the "war on terror" can then begin. Negroponte is
believed to have spelt out Washington's aims in very clear terms to
Pakistani authorities. He has provided precise targets for Pakistan to
tackle, such as al-Qaeda and Taliban bases in Pakistan, and if Islamabad
fails to act within a given timetable, North Atlantic Treaty
Organization-led forces from across the border in Afghanistan will take
matters into their own hands.
Over the years, Pakistan has tried to deal with the problem of militants
in the tribal areas, with both the iron fist and the velvet glove. The
problem remains, though, and in the latest show of force, militants last
month captured more than 400 Pakistani troops and security officials in
the North Waziristan tribal area.
After news leaked of a new video by al-Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden, the
US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) informed Pakistan about the
presence of a new militant base in the valleys of the Shawal, a remote,
inhospitable region that spans the Pakistani-Afghan border. The CIA
suggested that the tape might have been shot in the Shawal, and that
high-value targets such as bin Laden's deputy, Dr Ayman al-Zawahiri, and
Tahir Yaldeshiv, leader of the Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan, might be
in the area. In response, Pakistan sent troops to the Shawal on
Saturday, but they immediately came under fire in the mountainous
terrain. Though a spokesman for the Pakistan Armed Forces, Major-General
Waheed Arshad, denied the claim, independent sources confirmed that 35
troops died during the Shawal operation, which failed.
Washington has also broadened its contacts to include the Pakistan Army,
as the military is a key player in the country and any breakdown of
Musharraf's military-backed government would be a severe loss to the
army. It has therefore been included in the negotiations with Bhutto.
The political endgame is expected very soon.
Washington is absolutely right in including the army in its plans,
despite the popular political face of Bhutto, as militants will remain a
threat across the country. In fact, Bhutto will need the army to protect
her and the government's security. In such a "protected" atmosphere,
Bhutto, Washington's ace card, will be beholden to General Headquarters
Rawalpindi and its regional games. All the same, the army will stay
behind the scenes as far as politics is concerned, but it will be the
only channel through which Washington will deal.
Once a smooth transition of government is completed, the demands of the
militants for a complete withdrawal of Pakistani forces from the tribal
areas will be met and a ceasefire agreement between the security forces
and the Taliban is likely by November.
At the moment, talks between the Taliban and coalition forces in
Afghanistan are stalled because of Pakistan's internal situation.
However, Taliban sources signal that ceasefire agreements are expected
by the winter in southwestern Afghanistan, after which talks for a
political settlement will start. In the coming few months, as the
changes in Pakistan take place, no major offensives are anticipated in
Afghanistan, beyond unplanned skirmishes.
Coalition headquarters in Kabul are fully aware of the Taliban's
strength, which will be further boosted once the Pakistani military is
withdrawn from the tribal areas, as the Taliban will be able to
consolidate their bases there to support operations in Afghanistan.
Pakistan will be in a position to build new bridges between the military
and the Taliban, which will guarantee a new Pakistani-sponsored "easy to
talk to" Taliban leadership, which will push for a political settlement
in Afghanistan.
The dynamics in the "war on terror" will be changed toward peaceful
resolution or, if that fails, the whole process will give the
Pakistan-backed Taliban enough breathing space for a major offensive
next year.
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