THE stage was set for the crucial elections to 0five state assemblies-----Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chatisgarh and Mizoram, with Chief Election Commissioner J.M. Lyngdoh issuing the election notification and schedule of polls to be held in November and December. The significance of these state elections lay in the fact that they would be the pace-setters for the Lok Sabha general elections and state assembly elections that would follow in the coming year to decide who will sit on the throne in New Delhi and the thrones of various states of India. The polls would also be significant, because for the first time, the Supreme Court directives regarding the educational qualifications, assets and liabilities and criminal record of the candidates would be strictly implemented by the Election authorities to the chagrin of some of the notorious ‘criminals in politics’ and ‘politicians in crime".

Implementation of these directives would be first step in enforcing transparency and accountability in public life and electoral systems. It could hurt the images of many politicians and political parties, both in the incumbent and challenger camps all over the country.

The Election Commission had already attracted flak from the mouth-frothing political spokesmen, before the election notification, in an attempt to defame the institution. However, it refused to bow down to the pressure of the political pride and prejudice. The attempts by politicians to drag in autonomous institutions and other pillars of the State like judiciary, into unseemly controversies, particularly in the pre-electoral campaigns, were quite evident for a while. But now the voices of bullies and threat-mongers have been toned down. Now the coming elections in the states are sure to be a deadly political game of snakes and ladders where it will be interesting to watch who rides up the ladders and who falls. The one and only question, which will repeatedly be asked till after December I (last date of the state elections), is WHO WILL WIN?

Despite the exuberant show of public confidence about their sure victory and marshalling their win factors in the loudest possible voices, the campaign managers of various political parties and factions are also quietly and invisibly working out on lists of lose factors. One thing is clear, national and ideological issues will not yield as much dividend as local and state issues and clash of castes, personalities and tribes. In the strategic march towards the vote banks and the ultimate polling days, old bags of tricks may not pay full dividend. The media agents of the incumbent and challenging political forces are already active on the principle of more faithful than the king and looking for new poll tricks. The DayAfter Bureau team took a quick look at the Snakes and Ladders scene in which ladders symbolised the win factors and snakes the lose factors and threat perceptions of various political parties from their rivals as well as disgruntled saboteurs within their party ranks. Some of those were so important and significant that they could not be easily ignored. Of course, the two major players in this dicy game would be the BJP (the ruling party with NDA coalition at Centre) and Indian National Congress.

Three major personalities, whose shadow would lengthen during the poll campaign and affect its outcome, are Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee of BJP, Congress president Sonia Gandhi and Bahujan Samaj Party president Mayawati. As the poll-day draws nearer, the baffling speed of unexpected and unimaginable defections, poll alliances and poll fracas would gather dizzy speed. The health of Vajpayee, the foreign origin of Sonia Gandhi and the Taj Corridor connection of Mayawati will naturally recede in the background to place all the contenders under public scan for their non-performance and non-fulfillment of promises. Some issues of development are bound to surface and many politicians might find it hard to defend their non-performance and the relevance of their pride and prejudice.

Friends and foes, putting forward their theories about the prospects of the Indian National Congress led by Sonia Gandhi, in the coming polls, have already started listing the ‘win’ and ‘lose’ factors. Even if their assumptions might be too hasty and early, they deserve attention to understand their approach and thinking at this stage.

The ‘lose’ factorists argue that only Congress stands to lose something, and that because of the incumbency factor. It is in Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chattisgarh. Should an incumbent party always lose? The question is debatable indeed. The ‘win’ factorists argue that the Congress has better chances than its rivals because of the good governance provided by it in these states despite certain lack of support and cooperation from the Centre. People are bound to support it for its good governance.

The ‘lose’ factorists also have taken into account the internal dissensions within the political parties, particularly at the level of the states which are facing polls, specially on the question of choice of candidates and play of caste and religion factors. They pointed out that BJP today was more dissention and faction-ridden than the Congress. The ‘lose factorists’ also play of the third forces that can cause major corrosion in the winning and losing of votes of the principal contenders - the BJP and Congress. The third force factors included the primary factor of the BSP and Mayawati emerging as the direct participant in these states, for the first time in a big way, outside Uttar Pradesh.

The indirect influences of the SSP (Mulayam Singh Yadav), Janata Dal (Laloo Prasad Yadav), NCP (Sharad Pawar), caste-based regional parties of North-East and Chattisgarh tribal factor, cannot also be ignored. All these factors increased the number of snakes and ladders on the way to the final win spot in the forthcoming state elections gamble. There was also an important win and lose factor of clash of political personalities of state and national stature.

In a roving scan, Delhi presented an interesting picture at this point. The BJP campaign is led by former Chief Minister and sitting MP from Delhi Sadar, Madan Lal Khurana, who is also the chief ministerial candidate. There were reports of Khurana being put up as an assembly candidate from West Delhi. He is a man who has often survived controversies and serious political stumbles within and outside the party. Will he win this time? At least he himself and his close camp-followers are very confident. The Delhi BJP camp, however, had chinks in its armour too. The basic cause of tensions and internal tussles arises out of frustration and reservations of some of the tall figures in Delhi’s BJP realm.

According to sources in the BJP rank, Labour Minister and Outer Delhi MP Sahib Singh Verma, also a former Delhi Chief Minister, knew Delhi rural areas much better than anyone else, but his followers felt that he had been sidelined while selecting party candidates for the state election. It could be a very serious error. He was among the strong leaders who knew how to corner the Congress. South Delhi BJP MP Vijay Kumar Malhotra, Chief Executive Councilor of Delhi and an important Sharnarthi leader in Delhi for years, similarly, was said to have been not properly consulted in the planning strategy for the poll battle. Same is the fate of Chandni Chowk MP and Minister of State for Sports Vijay Goel, who was considered an upcoming BJP leader with considerable potential and capability.

In East Delhi, BJP MP Lal Bihari Tewari also felt that he represented and knew the large immigrant population of East Delhi from neighbouring Uttar Pradesh and should have been consulted in strategy and choice of candidates from East Delhi. The former BJP Mayor of Delhi and MP from Karol Bagh Anita Arya also have been ignored because she was considered as less experienced.

How much will the Delhi BJP campaign machine improve or deteriorate in the countdown to the poll-day only the snakes and ladders would tell.

The Congress camp, which looked ridden by internal dissensions till a few months ago, seems to have revamped itself and looks more united in support of one of the toughest and best performing Chief Minister in the country, they claim, Sheila Dikshit.

In the media and the masses, Sheila Dikshit has managed to project an image of good governance and hard work over the years, despite the fact that, the Delhi Administration is handicapped by all the snsitive and public concern and contact departments like police, transport, power, water and pollution being more under the control of the Central Government. Obviously, her success would be sought to be blocked by the Government at Centre with its own performance record.

The Congress High Command’ seemed to have realised the importance and benefits of the Sheila leadership and keeping the Delhi unit of the party united. Prem Singh, Subhash Chopra, J.P.Aggarwal, and Ram Babu, considered trouble-makers by the establishment once, are all united and seemed to be following the dictum that when Congress is united at home none can defeat it. They feel that they have more ladders to climb and less snakes.

There appears to be the confidence among the Sheila camp followers that neither the rivals nor the once dissenters within the Congress Party can now block Shiela Dikshit’s cake-walk to victory. But that would be known Come December.