BJP skating on thin ice

by Lalit Sethi

For the Sangh Parivar, bygones are not bygones and that is why the BJP is not sure of what lies ahead. Sangh Parivar by all accounts is not interested in just being in office for a period of five years or more and propounding the tenets of coalition dharma. The Parivar is willing to lend support to whichever party commits itself to the building of Ram Temple, banning cow slaughter and abrogation of Article 370 of the Constitution.


Is the BJP gaining or losing ground with India's voters? That is a question the BJP is asking itself all the time even as it prepares for probable, if not possible, snap elections to the Lok Sabha in the near future. But it is unable to find the right answers even as it puts up a brave face and hopes for the best in the upcoming Assembly elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, dates for which have already been announced by the Election Commission and ordered before the year ends. Gujarat is extremely important even if Himachal is somewhat peripheral as victory or defeat there does not affect national prospects.

But even more important is the electoral contest for the Delhi Assembly early next year, possibly in February. There is euphoria in the Delhi unit of the BJP after its landslide victory in the Municipal Corporation in spite of rivalries and a lot of bad blood between party leaders and cadre. In spite of that the national scene for the BJP is grim. Why is it so? The reason is simple. The BJP has annoyed the Sangh Parivar so much by its antics like the L. K. Advani's Jinnah episode in Karachi that bygones are not bygones and nothing is forgotten although there are occasional news leaks that because of the poor health of Mr. Atal Bihari Vajpayee, Mr. Advani is now accepted as a possible shadow Prime Minister.

But it appears that the Parivar wants a hardcore man, loyal to the Sangh ideology, and not political jugglery of being good to all kinds of parties and people to abide by what is called coalition dharma. Coalition politics and being in office for five years or more is not something that is of interest to the RSS and several of its outfits. They want obedience to and implementation of at least their three point agenda and a pledge to do so. Being in office or losing it is of no concern to the Parivar. If some party other than the BJP is ready to implement even one or two of its basic planks, the Parivar could be quite happy and willing to support it by deploying its cadres.

What is the three point agenda? Number One: build the Ram Temple at Ayodhya. Number two: ban on cow slaughter all over India. Number three: Delete Article 370 from the Constitution giving Kashmir greater autonomy than other States. There is absolutely no compromise on the first two. But the BJP refuses to honour any of the three basic Parivar tenets. In view of its refusal to do so if and when in power, it can remain in the doghouse for ever and in political wilderness. The RSS and its outfits could not care less.

But the Gujarat unit of the BJP is a house badly divided against the crafty, yet ruthless Chief Minister, Narendra Modi. The banner of revolt raised by Keshubhai Patel remains at full mast and the party's central leadership has failed to bring the rivals together on a single platform. In fact, many party faithful have left the BJP after years of service in disgust and the BJP headquarters' refusal to sack Mr. Modi for what they consider his high-handed ways in dealing with those who refuse to pay court to him. The Gujarat outfit of the party is cut up right through the middle and the bickerings between party men often reach a crescendo. It appears impossible to set the Gujarat house in order even though it has been a BJP stronghold for quite some time.

How has Mr. Narendra Modi managed to create a crisis of sorts for himself and therefore managed to damage the party's prospects all over India? Before he became the Chief Minister, he appeared to be such a smooth operator, endowed with great leadership qualities, a man who had a sweet tongue, a man who could coin words to fool the people and appear to be extremely popular? How has he managed to disinvest and lose his political capital as well as damage his capital, especially within his State and the rest of the country? He appears to be still popular with Gujaratis around the world as they are big investors in their home State: Gujarat receives India's largest foreign direct investment. But that does not change the political realities.

What are the political realities? These are that Narendra Modi may lose the Assembly elections unless as a measure of fire fighting the BJP top leadership orders Mr. Modi to hang up his boots, throw in the towel and make room for somebody non controversial or less controversial. But the time for that change appears to have passed and there is little that can be done to repair the damage already done.

Mr. Modi has succeeded in annoying the Sangh Parivar by banning the entry of the volatile general secretary of the Vishwa Hindu Parishad, Mr. Praveen Togadia. Thus Mr. Modi, once the darling of the Parivar for espousing hardcore Hindutva, is now among the most despised. Mr. Modi's antics are doing enormous damage to the BJP and the party tries to push the crisis under the rug and wish it away, but it does not go away.

The BJP's dream of unseating the Congress in view of the incumbency factor appear to be fanciful. It is not the question whether the Congress will win or lose the next election. The only question before the BJP is whether it will win the snap elections, if called soon or General Election in the year 2009. There, its prospects appear to be poor.