The electorate of Kashmir has conveyed a clear message to the world that the State  was an integral part of federal India and  no one can separate it from India even though the electorate has delivered a fractured verdict making it difficult for any party to provide a stable government. But in the fractured verdict is hidden another message that the electorate from other States have been delivering for the past one decade that the electorate would prefer governance as their prime consideration in voting in absence of the ideological commitment of parties in the fray.

No one could have imagined though some were keeping a confident stance that the National Conference would be defeated in the manner that it was defeated even though it emerged as the single largest party with 29 out of 87 seats. It has an edge in the Valley over other parties but it has fallen short of a clear majority even in the Valley because it could win only 19 out of 46 seats there. The Congress emerged as the single largest party in Jammu region where it bagged 15 out of 37 seats. Thus the Congress has also failed to win a clear majority in the region that supported it and rejected the Bharatiya Janata Party that had tried to eat the cake and have it also by fielding a morcha that was put up by the Sangh Parivar. The only party that has suffered a complete rout in the State is the BJP.

The verdict in the Assembly polls is truly reflective of the national trend. The fractured verdicts have been the outcome where there was multiplicity of parties and there was no bipolar politics deeply rooted. Only in the States where only two parties dominate like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Orissa, Karnataka and Tamilnadu that clear mandates have been delivered by the electorate in the last few Assembly elections. But in States like Uttar Pradesh and Maharashtra, where more than two powerful players were in the field, fractured verdicts were the inevitable outcome of the State Assembly elections. Since 1984, no Lok Sabha election has brought single party majority rule in New Delhi. It has forced on the nation the politics of coalition and compromises. It also has clearly reflected that in the absence of ideological commitment, no party was in a position to win a clear majority. In the 1991 elections, the emotional issues of the Mandal Commission-based reservations and the Mandir were in the forefront but they also did not result in giving a clear verdict in favour of the proponents of either issue. The Congress party emerged as the single largest party only because of the swing it received after the assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. It added nearly 50 more seats to the Congress box and thus enabled Narasimha Rao to become the Prime Minister for five years.

The social elite was concerned by the new trend of political fragmentation that has been underway for the past two decades. However the masses have shown that they were least worried by the political fragmentation that was underway. The reason for the fragmentation was an alienation that the national parties have caused in their social blocks. The Indian National Congress was hitherto seen as an all-encompassing party that had a nationwide base. With the departure of Indira Gandhi and also due to economic policy shift, the Congress no more remained an umbrella-like structure that could accommodate all social blocs with their diverse aspirations. Its geographical wide base had begun to shrink with the victory of the DMK in the fourth general election held in 1967.

But the rate of its geographical and social shrinkage was intensified in the past one decade when the BJP emerged with a promise of replacing the Indian National Congress on the national scene. In 1991 and subsequent Lok Sabha elections, it emerged as the single largest party. But it could not expand its social or geographical base despite the desperate efforts. Many believe that it was because of its decision to put on the backburner the Ram Janambhoomi temple and other issues that had given it an identity. But it was only a myth. That the BJP leadership was under an illusion was proved by the results of the recent Assembly elections in Uttar Pradesh.

The defeat of the BJP could be attributed to the absence of the Ram Janambhoomi Temple issue in its election manifesto or at least so the section of the BJP believes. How can the victory of two regional parties that were far ahead of the BJP in gaining a number of seats in the State Assembly elections be explained? Both the parties, the Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav and the Bahujan Samaj Party of Mayavati have definitely taken an anti-temple stance in this election. Yet they emerged with more seats in the State Assembly than the BJP and the Congress could win. The shift from the social bloc that had stood firmly with the BJP was visible also in the last Lok Sabha party so that it could stand on its own for the next round. The Congress seems too eager to form the government with Ghulam Nabi Azad at the centre stage. He was removed from national politics, as others were who had stayed with Narasimha Rao. But now he wants to remain in the eye of the political storm by refusing an opportunity to Sayeed Mohamed Mufti to become the chief minister and become the sacrificial goat.

Even though the people of Kashmir have ignored the boycott calls given by the Hurriyat leaders, threats of violence by militants, and actual violence during the campaign period to come out in large numbers and vote without any goading by the security forces, the problems remain complex and confusing. The free and fair elections add more feathers to the cap of the Chief Election Commissioner for the effective conduct of the process of election. It might be a setback for Pakistan for a time. But the fundamentalists have had a large share in power as indicated by the last elections in Pakistan. They would certainly ensure that the militants continue to be active and more aggressive in Kashmir and other targets in India. The State Government was a buffer for the Centre but with the Congress bent upon taking over the State even though it had not won a clear verdict, it is easier for the Vajpayee government because it has found a whipping boy to blame for all its failures on the Kashmir front.

It is not possible to provide good governance when one has to make so many compromises and accommodate so wide and so many interests to cobble up a majority in the State Assembly. Independents, the regional parties and the break away group from the People’s Democratic Party would all demand the ministerial berths and other perks in return for their support. How far such a bandwagon would move is a question that would stare in the face of the people. Thus the lessons from the Assembly elections and also the important messages conveyed by the Kashmir elections are lost on the Congress in its eagerness to reach the corridors of power by riding on the back of greedy legislators.

election in the State where the Samajwadi Party could win as many as 27 seats in the Lok Sabha. So the BJP has to seek the answer to the causes of the shift from its social bloc elsewhere. It would need to investigate how far tinkering with the reservations issue by the last BJP government headed by Raj Nath played a decisive role in shifting large sections from its political vote base? The Ram Janambhoomi issue has not led to further expansion of the party base is evident in this factor.

The absence of ideology forced fractured verdicts in the country. And the fractured verdicts have forced the coalition politics that has in turn reduced the role of ideology in governance even further. Thus, the country has been caught in a vicious circle. In the absence of ideology and due to dominance of coalition politics, the governments have to necessarily go in for performance. The Indian voter has become conscious of the performance of the coalitions that have been installed at the Centre since 1996 and in the States thereafter. That is why the incumbency factor is playing a greater role in the Assembly elections in the last two decades.

The Congress could win in 1998, 1999 and subsequent Assembly elections to bring in 14 States under its rule but it had reaped the advantage due to the anti-incumbency factor in these State elections. As it reaped the benefit it would have also suffered the disadvantage in the coming round of the Assembly elections because the electorate is now demanding performance. That good performance would give political advantage was proved by the Left parties in Bengal and Chandrababu Naidu in Andhra Pradesh. The Congress could not remove him in Andhra Pradesh and the Congress could not move out the Left government from the corridors of power even though it played the role of a B team to the Trinamool Congress of Mamta Bannerji.

Thus the Kashmir election is an indication for the next round of the Assembly elections in eight States next year and in Gujarat this year. Ideology had no role in the Kashmir Assembly elections. The National Conference had given a different message by shifting its alliances from the Congress in 1987 to the National Front in 1989 and back to the Congress in 1991 and again with the United Front in 1996. It had lost no time in joining the BJP-led alliance at the Centre though it was never explained what compulsions had forced Dr. Farooq Abdullah to go with the National Democratic Alliance in the first place and then fight the Assembly election separately? The shifts have caused considerable damage though it was not the sole reason for its defeat. That the lack of performance also damaged its prospects is evident.