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Iraq War Influences Indo--Pak Relations
by Janak Singh
  The situation is changing now though the seeds sown for violence earlier still continue to sprout.
 

In the aftermath of the U. S. sweep in Iraq, there are clear indications that the Indo-Pak tension over Jammu and Kashmir and terrorist violence on this side of the border inspired by Pakistan’s ISI may be brought under control. While it is too early to say anything as to how this will happen, it seems some methodology would be worked out or evolved to achieve this result during the proposed fire-fighting visit to the two countries by U. S. Deputy Secretary of State, Richard Armitage. Following the removal of the Iraqi dictator, Saddam Hussein, Indo-Pak tension appears to be an important item on the U. S. agenda.

That the U. S. State Department really means business this time is clear from the spadework which is already being done to prepare the ground for the improvement of relations between the two neighbours without any bias or leaning towards any side. The
U. S. Ambassador in New Delhi, Robert Blackwill, who was known for his pro-India pronouncements has been recalled and reportedly asked by President Bush to carry on his academic work at Harvard University, although all this has been denied by the official spokesman in Washington. The U. S. government maintains that Blackwill’s decision to resign was voluntary and it had nothing to do with it.

Already, Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee, who was insisting on an end to terrorism as a pre-condition for talks with Pakistan’s President Gen. Pervez Musharraf, has somewhat changed his stance, as was obvious from his utterances in Srinagar, and later in Parliament. Alarm bells have also started ringing in Islamabad over the statements first by the British Prime Minister Tony Blair and later by the U. S. State Department’s policy chief Richard Haas that Pakistan is not keeping its commitment on infiltration and cross-border terrorism. Gen. Musharraf would never like to incur U. S. displeasure whatever the cost, especially after the humiliation of the Iraqi President. Some U. S. experts are already scheduled to visit factories in Pakistan suspected to be involved in the production of chemical weapons.

Shortly before flying back to New Delhi after a two-day visit to Srinagar, Vajpayee candidly said: "The Iraq war is a warning for the entire world, especially the developing world and those countries which are still caught in the cobwebs of poverty. I will not elaborate on that but we have to see how long India and Pakistan will keep on fighting. The time has come for a new beginning to be made." Replying to a question, Vajpayee said if Pakistan announced today that cross-border terrorism had been stopped, "I will send a senior official of our Foreign Ministry tomorrow to Islamabad to discuss the agenda for talks."

President Musharraf has also expressed similar views and started talking now of the emerging possibility of better relations with India. The Pakistan Foreign Office has started redrawing plans for holding the SAARC summit in Islamabad. Earlier, this exercise was given up because India had declined to participate in SAARC as a protest against continuing terrorist strikes in Jammu and Kashmir. The situation is changing now though the seeds sown for violence earlier still continue to sprout. After Vajpayee’s return from Srinagar, 26 people, including 18 militants, died in mine blasts and encounters with security guards in the Kashmir Valley.

That there was intense diplomatic activity behind new overtures of friendship with Pakistan made by Vajpayee at a well-attended public meeting in Srinagar on the very first day of his Kashmir visit was obvious. Simultaneously, just as the Prime Minister was saying that the door of talks with Pakistan was open, the
U. S. A. acknowledged in Washington its failure to check Pakistan from encouraging militancy in Srinagar. The Pakistan Prime Minister quickly reacted to Vajpayee’s statement and expressed the hope that both countries would soon end hostility. Although the U. S. A. had been trying for rapprochement between India and Pakistan for long, all efforts failed. But now the stage is being set for a different scenario.

In clear-cut and sharp tones, Haas said: "The U. S. A. for some time has urged the Pakistani government to stop cross-border terrorism across the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir. I will be honest: we have not succeeded." Saying that India had not exhausted the full range of dialogue options, American policy planners warned Pakistan that its ties with Washington would not improve beyond a certain point till the infiltration issue was adequately addressed. It is simply a fact of life for the Pakistanis that our relationship with them will never improve beyond a certain point unless this issue is adequately addressed. It will continue to be a major diplomatic reality for the
U. S. A."

Whether all this will usher in a new era of peace, prosperity and understanding between India and Pakistan cannot be said with any certainty at this stage. But there is no doubt now that America with the successful culmination of its operations in Iraq has demonstrated that U. N. or no U. N., it is determined to emerge as a policeman of the world, things may change. Already the people of Jammu and Kashmir, who have been the real sufferers of three Indo-Pak wars fought over the State and persistent tensions and terrorist violence, are happy over the pronouncements made by Vajpayee during his visit to the Kashmir Valley.

Vajpayee, the first Indian Prime Minister to go to Jammu and Kashmir since 1987, sought an end to bloodshed in the Valley. Loud cheers greeted him at the packed Sher-e-Kashmir stadium, where the rally was held, when he said New Delhi wanted the resolution of all internal and external issues through talks. In Islamabad, Pakistani Prime Minister, Mir Zafarullah Khan Jamali, hailed Vajpayee’s speech, saying: "I welcome this offer and appreciate it, but the basic principles will remain the same."

Poor Kashmiris, who depend for their livelihood mainly on tourism, the industry which has been completely non-functional in the troubled State due to terrorism for over 15 years now, shouted slogans, praising Vajpayee sky-high when he said that the government would make adequate arrangements for expanding employment opportunities for the people of the State. "I know unemployment is a big curse in Jammu and Kashmir, we have to remove it and bring joy and happiness in the arcadian Kashmir Valley." But Vajpayee, although giving messages of joy and happiness to the long–suffering Kashmiris, did not have the magic wand to change the situation: the exuberant mood in the stadium, where the Prime Minister was speaking, was in sharp contrast to the deserted roads in the city.

Although Vajpayee gave the impression that tension and terrorism would soon be a thing of the past in Kashmir, he was very cautious in his replies. When asked about the All-Party Hurriyat Conference, which is widely known in Jammu and Kashmir to be nothing but a spokesman of Pakistan’s ISI regarding Kashmir affairs, Vajpayee frankly dodged the question. He merely repeated what he had been saying since his arrival in the Valley that the door is open for all those who want talks with the Centre for resolution of the Kashmir problem.

The Prime Minister strongly supported the healing touch policy adopted by the State Chief Minister, Mufti Mohammed Sayeed, Vajpayee said the Centre would support Mufti in his endeavour to heal the wounds of Kashmiris who have been victims of atrocities instigated from across the border. But the healing touch would not apply to terrorists who have been terrorising the innocents and exploiting the situation with instructions from bosses sitting across the border. There was no doubt that the Prime Minister was accorded a heart-warming welcome by Kashmiris mainly on account of the enthusiasm about his visit generated by the State Government under the leadership of Mufti Mohammed Sayeed. The Chief Minister’s moves calculated mainly to rid the Kashmir Valley of terrorism and militancy deriving inspiration from Pakistan’s ISI are bound to win encomiums of praise not only from the long-harassed people in the Valley but also from the Kashmir policy planners in New Delhi’s South Block.

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