s
the Bush-Administration emerges triumphant from a war in Iraq that
faced heavy opposition from across the globe, President Bush and his
national security advisers are struggling to identify the best mix
of confrontation and conciliation to achieve other foreign policy
goals that are being expanded and refined in the wake of the
collapse of the Saddam Hussein government.
The battle lines that characterised the
Administration’s internal debate on Iraq before the war—often
between the Pentagon and the State Department—are re-emerging,
officials said. But there is widespread agreement within the
Administration that the rapid toppling of the Iraqi government
presents a powerful demonstration of U. S. ambitions, determination
and goals as the United States of America continues to pursue what
the President has called a ‘global war on terrorism.’
The example of U. S. military prowess,
Administration officials said in recent interviews, should frighten
potential enemies such as Syria, Iran and North Korea into
curtailing their links with terrorism and pursuit of weapons of mass
destruction. "The world is changing," one senior official said.
"There are consequences to this behaviour."
North Korea dropped its long-standing demand that
it would only meet one-on-one with U. S. officials to discuss its
nuclear programme, a decision that U. S. officials interpreted as a
sign that the North Korean government has been shaken by America’s
quick despatch of the Iraqi government and is now more than willing
to compromise.
France, Germany, Russia and other opponents of
the war can draw their own conclusions, officials said, as the
conflict in Iraq moves into a post-war phase in which the interests
of the United States of America and members of the United Nations
may again be at odds. "If you need a demonstration of how serious
the United States of America is, it’s that serious," another senior
official said. The Administration, said a third official, has made
it clear that the new "21st century threats" have to be dealt with
firmly.
Although the war has emboldened Administration
hawks, there already are fierce disputes within the Administration
over how to build a functioning, representative government in Iraq
that will justify the cost and blood of the war, as well as over a
range of other foreign policy issues. Most prominent are the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the role of the United Nations, and
how to deal with Iran and Syria, two of Iraq’s neighbours that
America has long alleged have ties with terrorism and
non-conventional weapons programmes. The challenge posed by North
Korea also looms large.
At almost every turn, the Administration will
face a choice over whether to accommodate its policy to the concerns
of others, or whether to push ahead, sure of its own convictions and
confident that others will follow.
At the moment, hard-liners in the government feel
vindicated by the sudden fall of Baghdad and by North Korea’s
unexpected willingness to meet on U. S. terms. Yet, the intensity of
these fights is the result not only of policy differences but also
of a policy process within the Administration that results in most
debates being resolved only at the highest levels of government.
With strong and powerful personalities such as Secretary of State
Colin L. Powell, Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Vice
President Cheney at the centre of these disputes, the battles are
often carried on to the last minute, when Bush makes a decision.
Both sides wage spirited fights because, up to the moment Bush tips
his hand, they assure themselves that the President shares their
point of view.
The process, some officials say, at times verges
on dysfunctional, largely because people at the lower levels make
decisions without knowing or understanding the actual policy. That,
in turn, can confuse and confound allies and foes as the
Administration appears to shift tactics from diplomacy towards
confrontation, and back again. For the moment, the war may have
given the Pentagon a prominence in foreign policymaking that is
likely to provide ammunition for policy battles yet to come.