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U. S. Foreign Policy After Iraq
  Now What
  by Glenn Kessler & Karen Deyoung
 
The United States of America continues to pursue what the President has called a ‘global war on terrorism'.
 
 


A
s the Bush-Administration emerges triumphant from a war in Iraq that faced heavy opposition from across the globe, President Bush and his national security advisers are struggling to identify the best mix of confrontation and conciliation to achieve other foreign policy goals that are being expanded and refined in the wake of the collapse of the Saddam Hussein government.

The battle lines that characterised the Administration’s internal debate on Iraq before the war—often between the Pentagon and the State Department—are re-emerging, officials said. But there is widespread agreement within the Administration that the rapid toppling of the Iraqi government presents a powerful demonstration of U. S. ambitions, determination and goals as the United States of America continues to pursue what the President has called a ‘global war on terrorism.’

The example of U. S. military prowess, Administration officials said in recent interviews, should frighten potential enemies such as Syria, Iran and North Korea into curtailing their links with terrorism and pursuit of weapons of mass destruction. "The world is changing," one senior official said. "There are consequences to this behaviour."

North Korea dropped its long-standing demand that it would only meet one-on-one with U. S. officials to discuss its nuclear programme, a decision that U. S. officials interpreted as a sign that the North Korean government has been shaken by America’s quick despatch of the Iraqi government and is now more than willing to compromise.

France, Germany, Russia and other opponents of the war can draw their own conclusions, officials said, as the conflict in Iraq moves into a post-war phase in which the interests of the United States of America and members of the United Nations may again be at odds. "If you need a demonstration of how serious the United States of America is, it’s that serious," another senior official said. The Administration, said a third official, has made it clear that the new "21st century threats" have to be dealt with firmly.

Although the war has emboldened Administration hawks, there already are fierce disputes within the Administration over how to build a functioning, representative government in Iraq that will justify the cost and blood of the war, as well as over a range of other foreign policy issues. Most prominent are the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the role of the United Nations, and how to deal with Iran and Syria, two of Iraq’s neighbours that America has long alleged have ties with terrorism and non-conventional weapons programmes. The challenge posed by North Korea also looms large.

At almost every turn, the Administration will face a choice over whether to accommodate its policy to the concerns of others, or whether to push ahead, sure of its own convictions and confident that others will follow.

At the moment, hard-liners in the government feel vindicated by the sudden fall of Baghdad and by North Korea’s unexpected willingness to meet on U. S. terms. Yet, the intensity of these fights is the result not only of policy differences but also of a policy process within the Administration that results in most debates being resolved only at the highest levels of government. With strong and powerful personalities such as Secretary of State Colin L. Powell, Defence Secretary Donald H. Rumsfeld and Vice President Cheney at the centre of these disputes, the battles are often carried on to the last minute, when Bush makes a decision. Both sides wage spirited fights because, up to the moment Bush tips his hand, they assure themselves that the President shares their point of view.

The process, some officials say, at times verges on dysfunctional, largely because people at the lower levels make decisions without knowing or understanding the actual policy. That, in turn, can confuse and confound allies and foes as the Administration appears to shift tactics from diplomacy towards confrontation, and back again. For the moment, the war may have given the Pentagon a prominence in foreign policymaking that is likely to provide ammunition for policy battles yet to come.

 
U. S. ‘Watching’ Syria and Iran
 
 

Syria and Iran, two of Iraq’s neighbours, have emerged as potential flash points. U. S. officials have put both on notice that their behaviour is being closely watched, but the State and Defence departments disagree over how hard to push the message and whether it is being heard.

The Pentagon has taken the lead in challenging Syria, with officials accusing it of secretly aiding Iraq by letting military goods and backers of the Saddam Hussein government slip over the border.

"The concern we’re raising about Syria is that in recent days the Syrians have been shipping killers into Iraq to try to kill Americans," Deputy Defence Secretary Paul D. Wolfowitz said.

Asked if America was preparing to take some action against Syria, Wolfowitz said: "That’s not a decision the Defence Department makes. That obviously… would be a decision for the President and Congress."

Yet, on the same day as Wolfowitz’s comments, Deputy Secretary of State Richard L. Armitage told reporters that "in the last several days they have responded quite well to U. S. and coalition warnings and démarches about closing their borders and things of that nature and they have done so."

While the State Department is not unhappy to have Syria rattled, the rhetoric has begun to alarm some officials, as well as officials in the British government. Secretary of State Colin L. Powell is frequently forced to deny in television interviews overseas that the United States of America has a secret list of countries it plans to attack next.

The Administration, in discussions with the Iranians, has made it clear that it expects them not to interfere in Iraq. But officials were shocked to learn earlier this year that Iran’s nuclear weapons programme was close to fruition. Officials are pressing countries such as Russia and China to limit Iran’s access to nuclear technology.

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