The BJP National Executive meeting at Indore has set at rest doubts regarding Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee advancing the next Lok Sabha election due in October 2004 by several months, before the law of diminishing returns becomes applicable. Even though Venkaiah Naidu and other leaders have set before partymen an unrealistic target of 300 seats, the ground realities preclude the party from improving upon its last tally. Vajpayee has, no doubt, completed five years as Prime Minister and demonstrated his durability as a politician, but the anti-incumbency factor may operate also at the Central level for reasons such as mounting economic and internal security problems, failures on the foreign policy front highlighted by Washington openly siding with Pakistan over Kashmir and refusing to brand it a state-sponsor of terrorism, and the NDA’s collective performance falling short of expectations.

The Congress Party seems to have got the hint and, at the convention of block-level party functionaries, Sonia Gandhi made very spirited speeches to generate the momentum for the next elections. She is trying to keep the party in a state of preparedness for the electoral battles ahead in the four Congress-ruled States—Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. She is conscious of the fact that if the party loses the "semi-finals" to the Lok Sabha polls and the forces of "cultural nationalism and Hindutva" win, the prospects of the Congress returning to power at the Centre will recede. Both parties are trying to set their respective houses in order by checking indiscipline and factionalism, though the Congress faces a more difficult task of enthusing grassroots workers in States where it is not in power. Vajpayee would certainly like to strike before the Congress campaign gathers sufficient momentum or before the NDA allies start to rethink their electoral strategy.

A realisation is slowly dawning on the NDA allies that their State-bases are no longer secure against a Congress assault and that any increase in the BJP’s tally in the Lok Sabha will be at their expense and further reduce their political clout at the Centre. The BJP has made it clear that it will have its own temple-based agenda for the ensuing elections and the question of a common agenda will arise after the elections. In the unlikely scenario of Hindutva and temple issues generating an emotion-packed electoral wave, the allies ruling in the States too will be swept away without a trace. The BJP is counting on the results of the ensuing Assembly elections, though its move to please the Hindutva lobby has been turned down by the Supreme Court, which wants the status quo at Ayodhya to be maintained. With the concerned parties showing little interest in resolving the issue amicably, or putting their faith in court intervention, the making of an emotion-packed campaign to yield rich dividends in the ensuing Assembly elections is clearly visible.

It is, therefore, safe to conclude that regardless of the outcome of these elections, Vajpayee and his colleagues will be under compulsion to advance the date of the Lok Sabha election. A victory will generate optimism about the BJP’s prospects and the proposition will be capitalised on the feel-good factor. A defeat will create the feeling that the people are disenchanted with the BJP and will not again repose confidence in it. Before such a feeling sinks in deeper and the opposition forces, principally the Congress, have an upper hand, the leader will then also feel compelled to call for elections before pessimism sinks deeper and the party’s national performance slumps.

The Himachal Pradesh experience has shown that Gujarat was an exception and that Hindutva does not work everywhere and in all situations. It is unlikely to work in Chhattisgarh, where the BJP suffered a serious split and has not revived yet, or in Delhi, where an entirely different set of criteria operates, mostly economic and social and comparisons are made between the Congress and BJP governments in the nation’s capital. But, looking at the mobilisation by the Parivar outfits and the green signal given by the central leadership, it is evident that Hindutva will be made a plank in Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. Chief Minister Gehlot has been under tremendous pressure in Rajasthan due to successive droughts and the Centre’s step-motherly treatment in the allotment of relief supplies, cash and foodgrains which caused temporary distress in the worse-affected areas. The situation was seized even by the national BJP leaders to point to the shortcomings of the Rajasthan Government, accompanied by denials of any discrimination in drought relief allotment.

The BJP’s victory in the three Assembly by-elections gave Gehlot’s opponents a chance to ask for his scalp. But the Congress central observer, who spent weeks touring Rajasthan, meeting party MLAs and block and district level functionaries, returned with the impression that much good work had been done despite the natural calamity and there was no need to replace the chief minister. He, in fact, went to the extent of saying that the amount of work for the people done in the State was more than anywhere else, including other Congress-ruled States. Sonia Gandhi has launched herself on an extensive tour of Rajasthan to defend the State government and counter the BJP’s offensive. The Chief Minister himself has a credible mass base, is energetic and does not see any other party leader who can deliver better. But the State has a border with Gujarat ruled by Narendra Modi and is not totally immune from Hindutva influence. The BJP, which has a strong presence in the State, is sharpening its axe for an assault on the Congress government and only time will show how far it will succeed in influencing the voters’ minds in its favour. Unity among the Congress leaders is being forged to ready them for the fight and the Gehlot government is also asked to initiate more steps to remove distress and to enthuse the people by redress of grievances and providing employment opportunities.

In Madhya Pradesh, the Digvijay Singh government appears to be in a secure position due to the good work done in the villages over the past decade. The BJP leaders have let Uma Bharti loose in the State with the specific purpose of generating a Hindutva wave, with Togadia-style speeches and organising religious functions. Digvijay Singh does not feel the need to change his style of governance to counter Uma Bharti and has already initiated steps such as setting up of goshalas. "I have never asked for votes in the name of religion. But, if the BJP raises religious issues, I will react to them" he said. However, he does not take his secularism to the limit of giving an impression that he is anti-Hindu. His policy of decentralised governance has been acclaimed nationally and internationally and evoked genuine response from the voters.

For a good Lok Sabha showing, the BJP cannot rely solely on itself, but will have to also depend on the performance of the governments run by its allies in the States. Therefore, the BJP leadership is toying with the idea of going to the polls early before the anti-incumbency factor operates in these States to the detriment of its interests. Mayawati has created such a mess for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh that the Central leaders are in a fix what to do in the face of total hostility of the State leadership to the Chief Minister, who has considerably eroded the BJP’s upper caste base.