Sunita Vakil

The unfolding of changing political scenario in Pakistan wrought by the recent general elections does signal a warning that the new dispensation is going to be more aggressive towards India.

Indeed, the most significant feature of the Pakistan election verdict is that it is an overwhelming mandate against the policy of "enlightened moderation" propounded by president Pervez Musharraf, a man who has been dubbed as the "best bet" for peace in Kashmir . The verdict sends out a strong message that there are no takers for Pakistan's renewed policy on Kashmir in recent years. Incidentally, this is for the third time after 1971 and 1988 in Pakistan's history that people's will has prevailed despite an oppressive regime.

In a way, the recent election results can be construed as an expression of discontent with President Musharraf's departure from Pakistan's traditional stand on Kashmir. Also, there was a growing resentment over his counter terror operations in continuation with the US led war on terror. Pitched battles between the militants and the Army in Waziristan and Lal Masjid are cases in point. The resultant setback to the hard-liners on Kashmir increased the disenchantment with the Musharraf regime. That the people of Pakistan have spelt out a comprehensive rejection of Musharraf and his coterie is indicative of their desire to keep the Kashmir issue on the front burner. The same has been reiterated by the chairman of Hurriyat Conference Syed Ali Shah Geelani. "The election results reflect that people have voted against the Musharraf regime and its policies. He changed the policy on Kashmir after he visited Agra and said that he has come with a different heart. Many a time he overlooked Kashmir as the core issue and said that the dispute can also be resolved by bypassing the UN resolution, "he is reported to have said. Keeping this in view, should the mandate be interpreted as a systemic shift in Pakistan's policy towards Kashmir?

Notwithstanding the rampant predictions that the general elections would be rigged to favour the presidents party facts speak otherwise. Unarguably, these elections have been hailed as the fairest elections in the history of Pakistan . The US senators in the country have termed them as the “most credible elections."

Meanwhile the US has let it be known that it is willing to work with the new dispensation in Pakistan, though it may be reluctant to see Pervez Musharraf booted out of power. The reason for this is that Nawaz Sharif is known to have a soft corner for hawkish elements in Pakistan, mainly because of his political coercions. It is not however, entirely surprising that the US may find it some what difficult to extend the much needed support to a hapless President Musharraf, who may be feeling down in the dumps right now.

Despite Musharraf's sabre- rattling with India over the Kashmir issue, the matter of fact is that there has been more advancement in Indo-Pak ties in the last four years than in the past few decades. It has been a long time since gunshots were heard all along the international time of control in J&K and also in Siachen glaciers. Trade between the two neighboring countries is rapidly expanding. With open border crossings, contact between people has flourished. And let's face the facts; even infiltration levels across the LoC have recorded an unprecedented low. More- over, there have been intense deliberations on settling the core issue of Kashmir with the result, it has been first time in four decades that the light at the end of the tunnel signified by a credible framework for a final settlement has been somewhat visible. It was in April 2005 that a breakthrough in J&K settlement was achieved. Since, then special envoys on both sides have continuously slogged for drafting an agreement on Kashmir. It has also been known that President Pervez Musharraf has been engaging in a back channel negotiation on Kashmir settlement since mid 2005 under four broad categories. These are: - no change in the Indo-Pak territorial disposition in Jammu and Kashmir, softening the line of control, substantive devolution of powers from New Delhi and Islamabad and finally, a consultative mechanism that will promote cooperation between the different regions of Kashmir.

The depth of opposition to Musharraf’s renewed policy on Kashmir can be gauged from the fact that almost every candidate who served in his government has faced crushing defeat. The defeat suffered by most of the ministers in the Musharraf’s regime can be safely traced to the party’s wavering policy on Kashmir, which ultimately sealed its fate. It definitely proved to be a terribly disastrous mistake for the Pak Foreign Minister Khurshid Kasuri who had got into the rut of repeatedly giving assurances that an agreement between India and Pakistan regarding the Kashmir issue was well within sight. Possibly, it did not exactly sound like music to the ears of common people as well as some sections of opinion in Pakistan.

As things stand, the drubbing suffered by the President’s PML (Q) was along expected lines. Among the reasons for this, a major one was that almost two years back, TO the bewilderment of his detractors, Mr. Musharraf allowed enough breathing space to the mainstream politicians of Kashmir for them to throw back the veneer of fear and highjack the agenda of moderate separatists. This unprecedented situation threw the Valley into chaos with there being no separate ideology between the mainstream leaders and the secessionists.

However, with a popular government in Pakistan, all this is going to change. India’s leading strategic expert also praised Musharraf for his courageous steps for his departure from the traditional stand on Jammu & Kashmir, in spite of the paradoxical approach. “He stabilised dialogue wit India and moved away from the insistence on the UN resolution on Kashmir”, he is reported to have said.

The Pak poll results have inevitably evoked a mixed reaction from different quarters. Though India has preferred to keep its nose out of Pakistan’s internal affairs preferring to watch the changing scenario from the sidelines, strategic experts have expressed satisfaction over the defeat of religious hard-liners. It maintains that the present developments will have a favourable impact on both Kashmir as well as Afghanistan. This was endorsed by the Minister of State for External Affairs Mr. Anand Sharma who expressed the hope that the poll outcome would be good for the democracy of Pakistan. “Pakistan is our neighbour, we want peace and stability in the region. Indian shares a special relation with Pakistan”, he is reported to have said. On the flip side, J&K liberation Front while commenting on the election results in Pak has said that people “rejected the negative “approach” of their President regarding the solution to the Kashmir issue. In a press statement, JKLF leader Farooq Dar has said that the election results are a clear answer to the point four formula of Musharraf regarding the long-pending Kashmir issue.

What remains to be seen is whether the new government is able to usher in a liberal, terror free and stable Pakistan. Since the fate of peace process as well as the future of J&K is inextricably linked to the country whether the new dispensation is competent enough to clinch the Historical agreement with India, remains a mute question.

Also, with intelligence reports pointing to the incidents in Pakistan clearly indicating the presence of terrorist base, and the infrastructure in the country, it will not be long before militants increase their activities in J&K and other states. So, the best option for the new government would be to tackle hard-liners there at the very earliest.

As for India, there is every possibility that the new regime will be more belligerent. Also its past experiences with Pakistan do not inspire much confidence. Nawaz Sharif’s Kargil intrusion during his stint as PM as well as Benazir Bhutto’s aggressive behaviour towards India are cases in point.