India-US deal becomes ‘headless’

The truth is that much before the two important interlocutors from USA and India had decided to call it a day, the Indo-US nuclear had begun to suffer from a state of terminal decline. The forces opposing it in India were too formidable. Now the important thing is for India to find a suitable replacement with a view of the change in guard in the USA later during the year to keep the ties on a high.

by REPORTER@DAYAFTERINDIA.COM

The India-United States nuclear deal has received another jolt with key interlocutors in its negotiation leaving their posts. Close on the heels of US Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs and Washington’s point-person in the nuclear negotiations, Nicholas Burns, announcing his retirement has come an announcement from India’s ambassador to the US, Ronen Sen, that he is putting in his papers.

Both Burns and Sen will leave office at the end of March. Unlike Burns, who is expected to continue working on the nuclear agreement even after he quits the State Department, Sen is not keen to take on any advisory role on the deal.

Sen’s tenure as India’s ambassador in Washington saw an upswing in Delhi’s relations with the US. The high point of this was the civilian nuclear agreement between the countries, which was to pave the way for lifting of global restrictions on nuclear trade with India.

That nuclear agreement is currently in limbo, having run up against fierce opposition from India’s political parties, especially the left, which provides the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) with crucial support in Parliament, where the deal has to be ratified.

Seemingly endless political wrangling over the deal by India’s politicians last year appeared to provoke an exasperated Sen to make an off-the-cuff remark to a journalist that opponents of the deal back in India were “running around like headless chickens”. The remark ruffled feathers in India, prompting political parties across the spectrum to demand Sen’s removal as India’s envoy in Washington.

Sen subsequently apologized and said that the “headless chicken” remark was not about parliamentarians but about “friends in the media” who kept running here and there for comments. It is a commonly used colloquial expression, he later contended, saying that he used it often with his wife when he found her moving about aimlessly in the house.

Sen managed to get out of the “headless chicken” soup. But that soup took its toll on him. He had reportedly wanted to step down then, but was persuaded by the Prime Minister’s Office to continue as India’s envoy in Washington through the critical final phase in the nuclear deal negotiations.

Sen’s decision to quit now has been interpreted by some as indicating that the deal is in a state of terminal decline and that Sen would have continued to steer the show in Washington had there been some hope that the negotiations would be fruitful. Others say his decision is unrelated to the deal itself as he had indicated to his team last year that he would not be keen on an extension in Washington.

Whether or not Sen’s decision is related to the fortunes of the nuclear deal, negotiations on the latter will miss his inputs. Sen was one of the key architects of the deal, he conceptualized the agreement and engaged in the tortuous negotiations on it. More importantly, he worked the political establishment in Washington to push it forward, winning it bipartisan support among US legislators and marshalling the support of Indian-Americans.

The impact of Sen’s exit will not be felt immediately as little is happening on the American front now with regard to the nuclear deal. India is currently negotiating an India-specific safeguards agreement with the International Atomic Energy Agency. Once that’s done, it will have to get clearance from the 45-member Nuclear Suppliers Group (NSG). Indian diplomats have been talking to NSG members seeking their support for a change in the guidelines so that restrictions on nuclear commerce with India can be lifted.

Only after these two critical hurdles are crossed will the India-US agreement return to the US for the final green light from Congress. By the looks of it, it does seem it will be a new US Congress that emerges from the November poll which will decide on the nuclear agreement with India.

Reports suggest that a tussle is currently on between the Prime Minister’s Office and the Foreign Office. The latter apparently want a career diplomat rather than a political appointee to become India’s ambassador in Washington. The ambassador to the US has generally been a political appointee, the one exception being K S Bajpai, who was a serving diplomat when he was appointed to the US.

The two leading contenders are Shyam Saran, Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s special envoy on the nuclear deal and a former foreign secretary, and Satyabrata Pal, currently India’s High Commissioner to Pakistan.

Saran, who enjoys the backing of the prime minister, has formidable experience in handling the delicate negotiations on the nuclear deal. As foreign secretary he was India’s key negotiator for the deal with the US since the discussions began in July 2005 and his services were utilized even after his retirement when the government decided to appoint him as special envoy on the nuclear deal. In the past year, he has been traveling to various capitals to win support for India in the NSG.

Saran’s big handicap is he does not have the support of the left parties, which see him as being too pro-American.

Pal, who is being backed by the Foreign Office, is known to be a quiet professional with an excellent reputation. Although he is not familiar with the intricacies of the complex nuclear deal, he has served in New York as deputy head of mission.

Other names that have cropped up are Meera Shankar, India’s ambassador to Germany, and Tarun Das, chief mentor of the Confederation of Indian Industry. Das has been credited with energizing India’s business ties with the US over the past decade. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee is said to be in favor of sending a heavyweight political appointee to Washington, even one of his ministers. The name of Union Minister of State for External Affairs, Anand Sharma, is making the rounds.

At this juncture it seems that given Saran’s expertise and his backing from the Prime Minister’s Office, he stands the best chance of going to Washington. But he has in the past been cut out of key appointments at the 11th hour.

Saran was the prime minister’s choice as India’s candidate for Commonwealth secretary general until UPA chairperson Sonia Gandhi, arguably India’s most powerful politician, came up with ambassador Kamlesh Sharma’s name. Sharma went on to become India’s candidate and won the post. Saran remained the prime minister’s envoy on the nuclear deal.

If Saran is appointed it will be a clear indication that India continues to have a high level of hope in being able to clinch the nuclear deal. It will signal that it remains the key component of Delhi’s ties with the US. Many believe he is the best man for the job, given the importance India has placed on the deal.

But decisions in Delhi, especially regarding key appointments, have rarely been made after considering merit. Saran could find himself out in the cold again.