Pakistan’s Troubled Waters

It appears that with the hung parliament, Pakistan is entering a phase of uncertainty. With it the USA and the NATO forces too would be facing uncertainty as the course and the fate of the war on terror becomes murky. As it is there are calls for using the strategic positioning of Pakistan for economic aid before it has to commit itself to launching an offensive against the Taliban and the Al Qaeda. The USA is, therefore, working overtime to influence the new rulers of Pakistan.

by SYED SALEEM SHAHZAD

As the fallout from Pakistan’s general elections comes into focus, one enormous question mark has emerged: who will be included in the new government? Some major domestic political players have made hasty, if strategic, retreats from the government-making process and have adopted policies of wait and see.

Meanwhile, Washington has moved to mend bridges between embattled President Pervez Musharraf and the opposition camps in order to preserve its interests in the regional “war on terror”. Analysts believe that if Islamabad is gripped by further political turmoil, and if Musharraf exits the corridors of power, the US-led operation could flounder.

“We shall prefer to sit in the opposition and would rather provide support for the issues of national interest instead of making any bid to be a part of any set-up,” Senator Mushahid Hussain Syed, secretary general of the former ruling Pakistan Muslim League Quaid-i-Azam (PML-Q) said. “I think there are a lot of issues where any future set-up needs our support, especially in the ‘war on terror’, and we would provide our support while sitting in the opposition benches.”

The ruling PML-Q, the main ally of Musharraf, emerged from elections in third place - with 41 national assembly seats out of a possible 272. Independent sources maintain that PML-Q’s strategy to distance itself from the new government is the result of backroom maneuvering by US officials. Washington was reportedly surprised by the election results and pondering how to preserve the US-led terror campaign amid new political developments.

Indeed, the results have made for some strange bedfellows in the new parliament. For example, former premier Nawaz Sharif and Musharraf - a longtime Western ally - could be together in opposition, but working against each other, and their disagreements, along with the inclusion of an as-yet-undecided incoming president, could leave the “war on terror” hamstrung. Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League Nawaz (PML-N) secured the second largest number of national assembly seats with 67. The Pakistan People’s Party (PPP) was the winner with 87 assembly seats.

Sources said Zardari, the widower of slain former prime minister Benazir Bhutto, visited the US embassy on Tuesday afternoon and met with US officials. Sources maintained that the US is working on a scenario in which the PPP would form a government with a coalition of smaller parties such as the six-party religious alliance, Muttahida Majlis-e-Amal (MMA), the Muttehida Qaumi Movement (MQM), a Pashtun sub-nationalist party, and the Awami National Party (ANP), as well as independents and moderate leaders from tribal areas. The US is pushing the former ruling PML-Q to support the government from opposition and continue the US’s “war on terror” policies.

“We are ready to cooperate with the next set-up because any government will have tough challenges ahead. The year 2007 was the year when our government was forced to take tough decisions - the Lal Masjid operation and operations in Waziristan - and as a consequence we lost the elections,” said former Pakistani information minister Senator Mushahid Hussain.

According to sources, the political wrangling took place at an important gathering of politicos - including elements of the establishment and close confidants of Musharraf. A journalist was allegedly sent to Zardari to convey Musharraf’s assurances that the process of government formation could begin without the participation of Sharif. Sources said that Musharraf’s missive presented himself as head of the state and chief of the national security council in order to ensure the role of the armed forces in the key policy decisions of the country.

So far, no political party has come forward to join the PML-N’s demand for the restoration of the judiciary - even ANP, the majority winner in the North West Frontier Province, categorically denied that this was their issue. More important to the ANP is provincial autonomy.

Washington officially applauded the election process in Pakistan, which it termed transparent, among other praises. At the same time, however, the US has grave concerns that the vulnerability of a new government, or its unwillingness to cooperate with the US, could spell doom for the “war on terror”.

“I suggest that political parties should demand that until Musharraf’s resignation they would not take the oath in the parliament. Because, if they take the oath, it means they legitimize Musharraf’s presidency,” said retired Lieutenant General Hamid Gul, who has recently played a major role in organizing Pakistani veterans’ groups to demand retired general Musharraf’s resignation.

Gul was optimistic that the present vote against Musharraf and his allies was a vote against American domination of the region. He expressed hope that eventually mass support would push Islamabad to abandon all military operations in tribal areas.

“Americans cannot do anything if we stop the operations in tribal areas. If they stop military aid, they are welcome to do so. We don’t need military aid. All we need is economic aid and they just cannot afford to stop it. Why? Because all NATO supply lines pass through Pakistan and if they stop economic aid, Pakistan can stop supply lines which would end their regional war on terror theater once and for all. This is the biggest crime of Musharraf - that he could not understand the strategic value of Pakistan in the region and could not exploit it,” said Gul.