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Does Congress have a game plan? Fate can change very rapidly in politics. Last year the Congress appeared confident with the economy being vibrant and the middle class enjoying its fruits. Today as things stand it is the middle class that is prepared to put the first and the last nail in its coffin. Apart from the economy there are other factors that are playing a major role but the party seems to be oblivious to them. by Harbans Singh
With this knowledge and with the desire of not missing the bus at any cost, the BJP is busy plugging the loopholes. For example no sooner did it realize that its boat in Bihar had begun to leak, appropriate steps were taken. It knows that every Lok Sabha seat is going to count as there is little possibility of a clear mandate, certainly not the kind it got in Karnataka. Thus even at the risk of being accused of playing second fiddle to Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the party bosses called the bluff of the dissidents and opted to find the popularity of its State leader Sushil Kumar Modi via the secret vote. Ironically, it was this demand that had become the nemesis of Uma Bharati when she had demanded a secret ballot to find out the popularity of Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan. The party then had rejected the demand and had gone to extent of weakening the party by expelling the fire brand leader. But today it has opted for voting in order to establish not only its internal democratic credentials but also silence the dissidents who thought that they had the support of the majority. The party had undergone a crisis in Punjab too but once again its national ambitions forced the state leadership to eat the humble pie. In fact, Punjab is a case study to understand the mind set of the BJP. For long it has played second fiddle to the Akalis in the coalition politics. When the Akali-BJP combine came to power in 1997 it was only because of the magnanimity of Sardar Parkash Singh Badal the Akali supremo that BJP was made the junior partner. The Akalis had won a clear majority but honouring the pre poll arrangement he had formed the government with the BJP. However, this time around the fact is that but for the BJP the Akalis would have been hard put to cobble a majority. The Akalis had been beaten in their strongholds and it were the urban areas, from where the BJP has traditionally drawn support, that became instrumental in Congress defeat. Thus the Akalis were in power with a partner that was junior but was not willing to play the role of a junior. Tthe Akalis on their part were loathe to give an equal space to it and thus a conflict began from the first day. Fortunately for the coalition, it is led by Sardar Parkash Singh Badal a very seasoned and mature politician. Meanwhile the BJP central leadership, with the support of the Sangh Parivar, is also extremely pragmatic and focused on its goals. The goal being New Delhi, the central leadership has been keen on ensuring smooth relationship with the Akalis. After all ever since the Operation Blue Star and anti Sikh riots of 1984 a large number of Sikhs are opposed to Congress at all costs. It is equally important that this anti Congress sentiment of the Sikhs is harnessed by the BJP for there are many constituencies in the country where this minority community can play a decisive role in close contests. This explains the why and how of handling of the conflict between State BJP leaders and the Akalis in Punjab during the Panchayat elections. It was obvious that the Akalis had used the state machinery not only to intimidate the Congress workers but also the BJP leaders and despite violent clashes between the two all that BJP could do was make noises and bear with the humiliation. The goal for the BJP is clear and nothing will be allowed to come in between. Not the interests of the local BJP leaders in Punjab nor that of those in Bihar. In the process if the local leaders have to suffer then that is a minor sacrifice for attaining power at the centre. In fact, by opting for voting to determine the popularity of Sushil Kumar Modi in Bihar, the party has taken a huge risk of having to repeat the same process in Madhya Pradesh and Uttarakhand. But the risk is worth taking for the States have to be secured before launching an assault on the centre. Meanwhile, the Congress appears to be more and more rudderless, hit not only by the electoral defeats but also the inability to play any proactive role in controlling the prices. It is true that the ever rising cost in the oil is not within the control of the government but it is affecting the prices of commodities and hurting the people. The Congress happens to be in command and therefore take all the blame. But unfortunately, it has not been able to take advantage of the boom in the economy. More people have employment than ever before and there are genuinely people friendly schemes launched by it. Never before in the history of the country was so much money being spent on rural development schemes. The NREGS has been useful and so have been those related to infrastructure development. Massive funds are being pumped in the agriculture and the loan waiver to debt ridden farmers was the high point of this years’ budget and yet the Congress has not only to be on the defensive but apprehensive of the polls. The contrast with the BJP is interesting. While the BJP is moving from the States towards the centre the Congress hopes to grab the States from the centre. It banks only upon the charisma of Sonia Gandhi and still learning the ropes Rahul Gandhi. The state leaders are conspicuous by their ineffectiveness and those that are effective are emasculated by those who pretend to be the conduits between them and Sonia Gandhi. Much before the elections took place, the Congress had lost in Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Punjab. While in Uttarakhand a person who was preparing for a retired life was allowed to remain as Chief Minister. None knew who would be the next Congress leader. In Himachal Pradesh no effort was spared to undermine the influence of the Chief Minister, finally leaving him alone to battle in the difficult terrain. On the other hand Punjab remains a classic example of death wish afflicting the party. Today it has a leader who has compromised herself by having corruption cases withdrawn against her and is therefore busy protesting too much to prove her innocence. Meanwhile, the person who had emerged as a leader of people is being constantly insulted and belittled. In such a scenario what hope does Congress have in these States. It might be argued that these are small States and do not count for much in the Parliament. But therein lies the difference between the strategy of BJP and Congress. The BJP is giving importance to each and every seat while the Congress continues to live in the world of Mungeri Lal when it swept the large States of UP. MP. Bihar and Rajasthan. Except for Rajasthan it does not even have sufficient number of workers to man the booths in the others. So what is Congress banking upon? The States will go to polls before the Lok Sabha but will the anti incumbency factor work in Congress’ favour and if it does then will it not work against it during the Lok Sabha polls? During the next few months it has come out with a credible strategy that enthuses the people especially the younger lot. The world belongs to the Obamas who promise to work to change and not those who perpetuate an order that has not delivered. Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have both to come out aggressively with bold plans for combating the multiple economic problems as well as the threat to internal security. The question is will prefer working behind the likes of Dr. Manmohan Singh, P.Chadamabarm and Montek Singh Ahuluwalia or will they assert their leadership credentials. The three are exceptional gentlemen who have the good of the country at heart but they are no leaders. Democracies need leaders that can electrify people and give them dreams of a better and secure tomorrow. |
Punjab,
Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and now Karnataka. The list is growing and
the BJP leaders are clearly unable to hide their swagger. They know they
are very close to a kill with elections due to be held in Madhya Pradesh
and Chhattisgarh. They no doubt will be a dress rehearsal for the Lok
Sabha polls due next year.
