Time to prepare for the next Lok Sabha

Were people to vote on the basis of the report card presented by the Prime Minister then perhaps the UPA and the Congress would be re-elected but the problem is that voting is governed by a number of factors including the promises kept. But high on the need of the people is a credible leadership that inspires confidence and makes a difference in the quality of life. Now where does this leave the country in general and UPA in particular? 

The count down to the next general election has already begun and it is obvious that all parties including those that constitute the ruling alliance are all gearing themselves up for the polls. The party machine is being oiled and publicity material being polished. The Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh, following his practice has once again presented the report card of his government to the coalition partners and the people.

As the leading party of the UPA government the Congress has the difficult task of going to the people explaining how it has measured up to the promises that it had made and what it has achieved following the National Common Minimum Program of the alliance. Even to the uninitiated it has been obvious for quite some time that the flexing of the muscle by the Left notwithstanding the Congress has been mentally preparing itself for Lok Sabha polls, even early polls. The budget presented by the Finance Minister Chidamabaram was a clear indicator when the Rs. 60,000 crore farm loan waiver was announced. The cynics might add that the systematic manner in which that was made the focal point of the budget and the subsequent intervention of Rahul Gandhi as well Sonia Gandhi regarding the need to bring more farmers under its ambit was a well designed move to convert the waiver into an effective vote reaping instrument.

It has now been followed by the decision to make more farmers its beneficiaries by raising the amount to approximately Rs. 72,000 crores. This also indicates that the Congress plans to contest the next polls not only on the basis of the farm loan waiver but also a comprehensive plan for rural development.

Consider the fact that in its report card Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh has laid emphasis on the governments schemes that benefit villagers, farmers and tribal people. The UPA has put in place legislation to protect the livelihoods and land rights of tribal families living in forest areas apart from giving high priority to the revitalization of agriculture, the empowerment of the farmers and the modernization of the rural economy. Several initiatives listed in the Prime Minister’s report card claim to have been taken to reverse the decade long neglect of agriculture since the mid-1990s. It is further contended that the UPA has improved the terms of trade for the farmers, most importantly by increasing the minimum support prices payable for foodgrains. Investment in irrigation, agricultural research and rural infrastructure has been increased and the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana with an allocation of Rs. 25,000 crores for the 11th Five Year Plan launched. These initiatives along with the National Food Security Mission and the Rs 72,000 crore farmers debt relief package are supposed to facilitate a turnaround of our agricultural economy.

There is little doubt that these measures should be considered the high point of the UPA government. Never before has a focused so much on the rural areas and agriculture. Add to these steps the Flagship Programmes like the National Rural Employment Guarantee Programme (NREGP), the National Rural Health Mission, the Jawaharlal Nehru National Urban Renewal Mission, Bharat Nirman, the expanded Sarva Siksha Abhiyan and the Mid-Day Meal Programme, the Food Security Mission and the Rashtriya Krishi Vikas Yojana and one would say that indeed the UPA has a lot to boast of.

The UPA and the Congress is also aware of it and this shows in the publicity campaign that it has launched. Some might say that such campaigns are routine for governments entering the fifth year of the term but apart from the routine there is a disturbing similarity between the current spate of ads and the ones that were so aggressively launched by the NDA to spread the ‘Feel Good’ atmosphere.

Suffice it to point out the ads publicizing the NREGP and the Bharat Nirman scheme. Both these ads are being regularly telecast by the BBC World News and the sports channels. One wonders who the targeted audiences are and if for the rural employment guarantee programme targets its BBC watching audience then what purpose does it serve. Or, is that since it is a programme that can help ameliorate the lot of the rural poor the government had allocated fair amounts for its publicity which now are being doled out to channels telecast an ad that is not watched by the actual targeted audience. If one were to go by the designer suit worn by one of the beneficiary women in the NREG ad one can safely say that the ad was shot by keeping the BBC audience in mind.

Such campaigns have a disturbing similarity with the Feel Good campaign of the NDA not only because of the misdirection but also because despite the honest and sincere efforts agriculture continues to languish and with it the rural economy. Those regions that reflect prosperity in the rural areas are the ones that have been injected with heavy doses of private sector loans, remittances from abroad and the spurt in the prices of land. Economy based on agriculture needs much more than these props that are bound to lead to tragic consequences.

Meanwhile, the economy continues to grow at a rate of 9% but the advantages of this are being surrendered to an inflation rate that is hovering around 8%. The Prime Minister and the UPA are appropriately concerned and the knowledgeable know that they can do very little in the face of rising oil and food prices. Dr. Manmohan Singh hopes that the trend would be reversed but whether that happens before the voters have finally made up their mind or not remains to be seen. The common man does not understand how the oil prices result in affecting the prices of the essential commodities at home nor does the common man understand that the state governments need to act more effectively on this count. Since the increase in price of petroleum products is announced by the centre therefore the responsibility of the consequent price rise too has to be borne by the centre.

However, the voting pattern of a people is not governed by the report cards detailing the work done, especially so in a diverse country like India where every state and region has challenges that are peculiar. Add to it the federal structure and one can imagine the role that is played by the regional parties and the big and small states. It is in this context that the Assembly elections to the nine State to be held before the Lok Sabha polls hold the key to who is going to rule at the centre. The circumstances that have resulted in the rise of the regional parties have as yet not been addressed. Over the years they have become even more pronounced and because of the short term gains the national parties too have simply given in to those circumstances and parties.

The irony is that all those political parties that claim to be ‘national’ have been truly reduced to being national much like the Mughal rulers in their later years. Unfortunately this is becoming the norm as none of the political parties have a leader who truly straddles the national scene. The tallest among them is Sonia Gandhi. She draws crowds where ever she goes but even these crowds have never materialized into votes. Thus UP and Bihar remain outside the pan of Congress. The rest, including L.K. Advani are only acceptable in tiny pockets where fanaticism rules the hearts.

Even more worrisome is the fact that even though the Congress leadership might have declared that the post of Prime Minister is not vacant and it might be presumed that in case Congress and the UPA is voted back to power Dr. Manmohan Singh will once again head the government, the fact remains that he is at best an honest and effective CEO. Possessing neither charisma nor leadership qualities he is not expected to be a star campaigner, making campaigning a dicey proposition.

Leaders lead and such is their hold on their audience and followers that people are willing to make sacrifices to move in the guided direction. Sonia Gandhi has succeeded but only in patches and that brings in the Rahul Gandhi factor. Fortunately for the Congress he has displayed his willingness to be patient and to learn the nuances of a life he need not have rubbed shoulders with. But by opting a public life that is fraught with risks and by learning about the challenges of life in real life he is establishing bridges that can make a difference to the fortunes of the Congressmen. It must be added that he has yet to go a long way and probably will not be able to make too great a difference by next year but then who knows that by frog leaping the rootless leaders that abound in congress he might just do that – a miracle!