Blooming lotus, trembling hand

It has finally happened. The BJP has won an election in a southern state on its own. Though this does not mean that now it will also play a major role in the other southern States yet it does signify that now it is being accepted beyond the cow belt. The Congress in the meanwhile has only to look into the mirror and recognize that apart from the aging and fatigued lines there are self inflicted scars on its face. 

It was widely belied that BJP will have a significant share of the voters pie in Karnataka but no one had imagined that it would come close to winning a majority on its own. Now that it has happened there is no doubt that the Congress and JD(S) will find reasons to rationalize what has happened but the fact remains that for much too long the voter has been taken for a ride and therefore it was high time that there be a strike back.

But for a very brief interregnum, Karnataka has been ruled by either the Congress or its break away parties. In the process a state that was among the most enlightened and progressive was reduced to not only a chaotic mess but also where the end of power lay in the prosperity of the self and the family. Bangalore is a prime example of all that the collective might of the politicians have achieved. From urban chaos to loot of the prime land, all indicate to the state of governance.

Add to it the governance and politics of the state during the past five years that ended with the betrayal of the BJP by the JD(S) after entering into a power sharing agreement. The politicians might say that politics and opportunism have a very thin dividing line but in popular perception a wrong is a wrong that has to be righted. The voters contributed their might in bringing the JD(S) to justice.

However, explaining away the BJP victory in Karnataka thus would be too simplistic an explanation. There were many more factors and a number of wheels within wheels, not the least important being the role of the Congress party and the subtle shades of the now asserting regional leadership.

The Congress, it is now very clear, is suffering from a death wish. Those who are the main beneficiaries of the Congress victory of sorts in 2004 have not only forgotten that they were forced to remain out of power for almost a decade by voters who are not taken in by either old and familiar faces or the socialist – secular chants but also that the people of India give them mandate only for a limited period and that it has to be renewed on the basis of their performance. If they remember this basic principle of a democracy then it must be suggested that they have come to accept ‘it was my turn, now it is your turn’ principle.

This principle eases the pain of defeat and it also condones the failure of the party and therefore it becomes a handy tool. The question that the Congress needs to address is that why has such a culture developed and can it rid itself of it?

The answer lies with the President of the party Sonia Gandhi. She need only look around her objectively to notice that she is surrounded by advisers who cannot win an Assembly election on their own. These are the people who offer her advice over not only the leadership in a state but the prospective candidates. Thus even the bawarchis and drivers living in Delhi are given tickets for contesting in some far away hill state. The distribution of tickets in Karnataka was no different. It is true that Congress is a democratic party and whenever there is a possibility of its winning an election the number of aspirants rises dramatically. It also results in proportionate dissidence when the list is out. But even if this is inevitable, the responsibility of containing dissidence and ensuring results has to be fixed. This does not happen for those responsible for these decisions and consequents defeats do not have the stature in the party to do so.

The Congress high command need only analyse the elections of Uttaranchal, Punjab and Himachal Pradesh before taking up the defeat in Karnataka to see what others can see. Uttaranchal went into the polls with a leader who should have sent to vanprastha long ago. Rather than doing that the high command allowed him to remain the Chief Minister even when he had declared that he would be retiring from active politics! In Punjab and Himachal Pradesh where the Congress had leaders who had carved a niche for themselves were systematically cut to the bonsai size that seems to be most popular with the party. For the first time, the party had a leader who could be as combative and popular as any Sikh leader in the state and yet the high command allowed its minions to off set his influence. The same happened in Himachal Pradesh where the high command has been trying to decimate Virbhadra Singh since the time when he had won an overwhelming victory during Narsimha Rao’s time.

Faces in the high command have changed but for some strange reason the love for bonsais remains. This was more pronounced in Karnataka where S.M. Krishna was brought back from Maharashtra’s Raj Bhawan but was not asked to contest the election! The problem seems to be that the advisers begun to count the chickens even before the eggs have been laid. When they fear the rise of a Chief Minister who might not listen to them they try to ensure that he does not even become a candidate.

Ever since India’s independence, Congress has been battling fundamental forces especially among the majority community and late Indira Gandhi never let an occasion pass without condemning these communal elements. The country has long believed that the southern states would never fall prey to the virus of communalism and yet today Sonia Gandhi has recorded a dubious first by letting the political face of these forces take charge of an enlightened state. This should be reason enough for sleeplessness.

The irony is that the fear of the central leadership of tall regional leaders is not peculiar to the Congress party. This is a universal phenomenon which when wisely handled leads to the strengthening of the party and the society and which when dealt in the manner in which Congress does, leads to disintegration and shrinking of the base. If only the Congress had looked at the BJP it would have known of this.

It is no secret that the central leadership of the BJP is wary of Narendra Modi. During the last election some attempt was made to reduce his size but he still managed to win the election for his party for he had backed his divisive politics with good governance. It is also known that in Karnataka, B.S.Yedyurappa, the party boss had literally forced the central leadership to enter into a power sharing understanding with H.D. Deve Gowda’s son Kuamaraswamy and his JD(S). The subsequent fiasco notwithstanding, the central leadership backed himfor the state polls knowing fully well that he was the party face in the state. Now that he has delivered the goods, the central leadership can pat itself for backing him in matter of selection of candidates and strategy.

Apart from losing Karnataka, this defeat has wider ramification for Congress. Before next year’s Lok Sabha polls, a number of other important states including BJP ruled Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh are going to the polls. There is little doubt that BJP has got a shot in the arm and has given a clear signal that it is back in contention for grabbing the centre. Not a little help has been rendered to it by rising prices and the terrorist strikes. When former Punjab Chief Minister Captain Amarinder Singh had attributed his defeat to rising prices in the urban areas the so called advisers had interpreted it as his criticism of the Prime Minister’s and by extension Sonia Gandhi’s policies. Now it is obvious that it is a major issue with the voters and if something is not done in a hurry, the Congress can bid goodbye not only to the States but also the centre.

Another factor that needs to be honestly addressed is the increasing impression that the country is a soft state. It ill serves any one’s interest if it is reminded that V.P Singh. or Atal Behari Vajpayee’s government was more weak. Their weakness does not justify the weakness of present rulers. Moreover people are increasingly questioning as to how more and more Indians are getting involved in terrorist attacks and why strong deterrent steps are not being taken. Even more dangerous is the argument that if only Narendra Modi’s methods can ensure security of the state then so be it. After all USA is no saint when it comes to ensuring its own safety and the world knows about the Guantomano Bay. It is possible that this logic worked in Karnataka which has lately come on the terror radar.

So where does the Congress go from here? It has its trump card in Rahul Gandhi but the truth is that he is far from ready for taking the weight of so many dead horses. He is still in the process of learning and understanding the challenges and experimenting with the solutions. He understands that it is too big and complex a country and therefore cannot be run with the help of a coterie. Thus he is building the cadre and leadership afresh. He has some distance to go but in the meantime the party needs an holding operation by unfolding plan B.

Will it or will it not? The answer will determine the fate of the party in the next round of Assembly polls before the Lok Sabha elections