THIS year's presidential race - fueled by more than
a million donors, including many who have never given before - is well
on its way to becoming the country's first $1-billion po-litical
campaign, experts say. The money is coming in small donations and
large ones, online and in the mail, from wealthy philanthropists and
immigrants who can't even vote. In part, it represents unprecedented
interest in the campaign from people throughout the country.
Together, President Bush and his presumptive
challenger, Sen. John F. Kerry, have drawn money from 700,000 more
individual donors than those who contributed to Bush and Democrat Al
Gore in the entire 2000 campaign, according to figures provided to
The Times by the three campaigns.
Already, donations to Bush, Kerry and the Democrats
who had contested the Massachusetts Senator for the party's nomination
have exceeded more than $400 million - more than double what was
raised at this point four years ago.
By the time it's all over, when all the money spent
by the political parties, state party organisations, independent
groups, conventions and the candidates themselves is tallied, several
campaign finance experts said the total will be up to $1 billion or
more.
"The numbers are phenomenal," said Anthony Corrado,
a campaign finance expert at Colby College in Maine. "Something's
happening here. It's like the explosion of civic participation in
fund-raising."
Experts say several factors explain the 2004 money
phenomenon. The contribution limit from individuals was doubled to
$2,000, which naturally led to more money in the system. Both Bush and
Kerry opted out of the public financing system during the primaries
and caucuses, allowing them to raise as much money as possible until
this summer's conventions.
Donors can now give money over the Internet more
easily. And the country is politically polarised, which has motivated
people to try and give their candidate an edge in a very close race.
"It's the perfect political storm for fund-raising," said Terry
McAuliffe, chairman of the Democratic National Committee.
That money has translated into extensive television
advertising, particularly in the 17 battleground states where the
presidential election is being fought most intensely. It's also paying
for voter mobilisation drives and hefty fees for dozens of political
consultants who strategise, produce ads and conduct polls, as well as
to the broadcast stations and networks selling air time.
"You're definitely talking in excess of $1
billion," said Dwight L. Morris, who analyses campaign finance data
for news organisations. "It is mind-boggling." The thought of a
$1-billion presidential campaign shouldn't bother people, said Ed
Gillespie, the Republican National Committee's chairman.
"When you look at the amount of money spent to get
people to vote and participate in the political system," he said, "it
pales in comparison to what is spent to get people to buy toothpaste."
Not all experts agree on how the billion-dollar
figure will break down, but here's one conservative scenario that
would easily put the race near that mark: Bush is expected to raise
and spend about $210 million and Kerry $120 million, including funds
designated for legal and accounting expenses. After the conventions,
each candidate will receive $75 million in public money for the
general election. The rest of the Democratic field has already spent
about $160 million, including matching funds.
In the wake of campaign finance reform, the
outpouring of so much money - particularly from individual donors -
has turned conventional political wisdom on its head.
"Everyone's assumptions have proved wrong," said
Trevor Potter, a Washington lawyer and former chairman of the Federal
Election Commission. The political parties, particularly the
Democrats, were expected to be struggling for cash. The
McCain-Feingold legislation approved two years ago banned them from
receiving unlimited contributions - known as soft money - from unions,
corporations and individuals. Yet, the Republican and Democratic
national committees together have raised $230 million, more than what
they collected at the same time in 2000 when soft money was allowed.
Soft money is still finding a niche in the election through donations
to the independent groups, known as 527s after a section of the
Internal Revenue Service tax code. Most of those groups are spending
unlimited dollars on anti-Bush political advertising and
get-out-the-vote programmes Donors to both parties feel the outcome of
this year's election is critical - from the retired Honduran army
colonel who has given money to Bush even though he is not a US
citizen, to the Hollywood producer who counted more than 200 new faces
at a fundraiser she helped put on recently for Kerry.
"Bush is a great motivator. I can't stand the guy.
He's ruining our country and everything it stands for," said Roy
Cloud, 45, a wine importer in Washington, D.C. He made his first
political contributions this year - $250 to Kerry and a smaller amount
to the MoveOn.org Voter Fund, an independent anti-Bush group.
Louis Susman, Kerry's national finance chairman,
said he has never seen such interest in a presidential campaign:
"Every single event I've had, I've been closed down by fire marshals
or there's not been enough room." The political parties are also
benefiting from new money. The RNC said it had a million new donors
since Bush took office. And the DNC said it has counted a million new
donors since 2001, including 800,000 who were identified through
direct-mail solicitation.