CHANDRABABU Naidu has taken a fall despite his im-age as a modern re-form-minded and successful Chief Minister. Image-building is a very important part of modern day politics and in Andhra Pradesh Chandrababu Naidu had perfected this art and made people believe that he was a most modern Chief Minister the country had produced. He had borrowed the vision 2020 concept from Malaysia, he went around the country and the world with his laptop impressing people and more so the media. Whenever he visited Delhi, it was to make the Centre pay some money to his State. Since he provided the much needed support to the Central Government, he was able to get away with most of his demands. Despite all this, the economy of the State was in the doldrums.

There are many analysts who are now coming up with theories as to why Naidu failed to return to power. The same media, which is now trying to explain why he failed, had put him on a pedestal as the best chief minister India ever had. Naidu believed that he could do wonders with money and media. These were the two things he depended upon rather than looking to the common man. He must have learnt a bitter lesson that these things are not going to help him.

Three factors helped the Congress and hurt Chandrababu: reforms and their impact, Telangana issue and smart alliance building by the Congress. While he is presently keeping mum, his rival and the new Congress Chief Minister Rajashekhara Reddy has hit the nail on the head. He pointed out that Naidu neglected the common man's key concerns such as irrigation, agriculture, power and unemployment. The former CM had also neglected other issues like education, health care and provided inadequate social security facilities. Also his pro-rich and pro-urban image and pessimism about reforms did not enthuse the predominantly rural and agricultural vote base in Andhra Pradesh.

Secondly, Chandrababu Naidu's rejection of the demand for a separate Telangana state on the grounds that the other regions would not agree, hurt his chances. The agitation, which was led by the Telangana Rashtra Samithi, took on highly emotional overtones and it was a complete rout for the TDP in Telangana. In-fighting in the past as well as the inability to build coalitions had hurt the party in the past. In the 2004 elections, astute alliance building helped the Congress. The Congress built alliances with CPI, CPI-M and Telengana Rashtra Samithi which added up to its arithmetic. Another factor that helped the Congress was that Andhra has always been a Congress bastion.

If one looks at the Andrha track record, the Congress lost its primacy only when N.T.Rama Rao launched Telugu Desam. He won 200 plus seats in 1983 but could not keep his flock together even for a year. Again he came back with 200 plus in 1984 but his arrogance made him lose the State in 1989. He won back the state in 1994 with a huge majority but Chandrbabu dislodged him within a year.

Naidu’s chances were hurt by the caste equations in the State. He tried to divide and rule. The Kamma vote was divided while the Reddy vote went to the Congress. Kammas, his own community people, rejected him because they were annoyed that he was encouraging a few Kamma leaders at the expense of other Kammas. Reddys and Kammas were always rivals in state politics.

The women voters on whom Chandrababu had a lot of faith also ditched him besides the youth. Even within the TDP, Naidu had been dictatorial all through. He did not allow anyone to grow. He had an iron grip over his MPs. Many of them were disenchanted with him for not allowing them to join the government. They were not able to get any work done for their constituencies, as there was no one in Delhi to listen to them.

Now that the party is over, what happens to him? When NTR was in the opposition, he would not even attend the Assembly and it was Naidu who stood for him. So he will have to do the same once again if he wants to remain relevant in politics both at the state level and national level. Gone are the days of his image as a king maker or a candidate to become the king. He may also distance himself from the BJP.

For the new incumbent Rajashekhara Reddy, sitting on the throne is a dream come true. Rajiv Gandhi, Narasimha Rao and Sonia Gandhi had projected and encouraged him. Interestingly both Naidu and Reddy had begun their career at the same time in 1978 and they were also good friends. But once Naidu left the Congress, the two went on their own. Several challenges await Reddy. First of all, he has to take everyone along and forget about encouraging groupism within the party. With such a huge majority, it is going to be difficult for him to satisfy various aspirants.

Andhra Pradesh is known for its groupism and it may not be surprising that within a month dissidents will fly to Delhi to complain about Reddy. Unless Rajashekhar Reddy is given a free hand, it is going to be the same old story of infighting and groupism. Secondly, he will have to appease other caste groups. Reddys have always dominated Andhra, which has sparked resentment from other castes. Except four or five, all other chief ministers had been Reddys so far. So Rajashekhar Reddy has to ensure that the other castes and communities feel at ease. So, while choosing his Cabinet, he has to ensure that all groups and regions are represented in the limited number of Cabinet posts. He also has to keep the TRS happy. The TRS is not a reliable ally as it has already given the signal that it is open to alliances with either party. The least the TRS expects is that the Assembly should pass a resolution for a separate Telengana state.