IS it the incumbency factor that caused the near-rout of the National Democratic Front in the general election and loss of almost 90 seats? Was the parting of ways with the DMK and nine or ten other outfits in the past few months that left it in such a mess? Was the feel-good factor really no good at all? Was the Shining India slogan all moonshine? Was Murli Manohar Joshi’s aggressiveness in many areas of education, including history, earn the ire of the voter? Was the drop in savings interest rates something that hit the retired and others hard? Was Telugu Desam’s rout and Narendra Modi’s failure one more reason, besides a host of others? Was Sonia Gandhi’s and her son’s and daughter’s consistent campaigning was something that lured the voters not only in east UP but in large parts of the country and did the alliance with the DMK and several other parties hurt the BJP and NDA? Is it that the Congress realised that it had better played the same game and learn coalition politics and not put up candidates in all 543 constituencies but concentrated its assets and used them wherever it was strong and hopeful?

The May 13 election results stunned the NDA and surprised the Congress and the Left parties and all other contenders. None of those in the fray expected to do so well or so badly even though the BJP pretends that the Congress itself has won just 10 or more seats than the BJP, but the NDA has been brought down to 188 and the BJP, which was hoping to increase its tally to 200 and claiming that it would secure outright majority on its own turned out to be an empty boast. The entire media world, all the soothsayers, all the political analysts and financial wizards have been proved wrong beyond their best or worst calculations.

The BJP partner’s rout in Andhra has not been fully compensated in Karnataka, either in the Assembly or in the Lok Sabha. The Left Front’s tally increasing by about 20 Lok Sabha seats and Mayawati’s announcement of support, whether acceptable readily or not, may already help the Congress-led coalition past the 300 mark and make questions Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin irrelevant. Mayawati may be trying to upstage Mulayam Singh Yadav by coming out in the open even before she is asked to join what is called the secular front; even as Harkishen Singh Surjeet continues to try to "rope in other secular elements in Parliament to strengthen the position of the new government to be formed". In fact, Ghulam Nabi Azad, one of the architects of the Congress victory in Andhra, and earlier in Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, would still like Mulayam Singh to join the Congress-led coalition, in view of his proven secular credentials. The Congress still supports his government in UP and would like to continue its support to him rather than have Mayawati on board and be forced to bring down the UP government to please her. This is regardless of the fact that Mulayam Singh has a secret understanding with the BJP which helped him with 13 Thakur MLAs who defected from Mayawati’s BSP. Such cross-currents are the stuff that polity is made of and are a fact of life. Live and let live is a credo practised at times and yet the cut and thrust is as much a part of life, public as well as private, for individuals, politicians and parties, working people and organizations.

There have been shifts in voter loyalties in a number of states, except in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh , Chhattisgarh (where new State Assemblies were elected a few months ago and the results there motivated the BJP leadership to try to cash in on what it saw as a wave in its favour and the "charisma" of Atal Bihari Vajpayee), Bihar, West Bengal, Orissa, Maharashtra, Delhi and some smaller States. In UP, the unique phenomenon has been that both Mayawati and Mulayam Singh improved their position at the expense of the BJP and the Congress hardly made any worthwhile gains in the key State from where Prime Ministers often came, as even in the new formation.