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  WHY THE USA DOES NOT WANT INDIA TO ACT IN HASTE
 
  • M.K. Dhar
 

Expressions of shock and sympathy by U.S. President George Bush, his Secretary of State, Colin Powell and others over the Pakistan-sponsored horrendous terrorist attack near Jammu cannot heal Indian sentiments deeply wounded by Gen. Pervez Musharraf's diabolical acts. Nor do unanimous parliamentary resolutions, condemnatory of the action, necessarily inject a sense of responsibility or determination to act in the Union Government which, for years, has been promising counter- measures to eliminate the threat from Islamabad. The policy of restraint pursued by the Government is an apology for inaction, which may win it some brownie points from patronising Western countries. But it is undermining public morale, raising doubts about the Government's ability to respond effectively to threats to national unity and integrity.

It is now as clear as daylight that the United States' policy towards the sub-continent has again developed a tilt towards Pakistan, which the Clinton Administration had painstakingly tried to correct, with the result that India's strong case on cross-border terrorism does not register. New Delhi is clearly told that it cannot expect Pakistan, which has re-emerged as a crucial member of the U.S.-anti-terrorism alliance and whose friendship is essential for the furtherance of Washington's vital interests in the region and Central Asia, to change. On the contrary, Vajpayee, Jaswant Singh and others are clearly told that India must resume talks with Pakistan over Kashmir if relaxation of tension, as argued by Gen. Musharraf, is to be achieved. President Bush offered condolences to Vajpayee and, at the same time, asked him not to escalate the situation. Assistant Secretary of State Christina Rocca, while in New Delhi repeated the American phraseology that terrorism against India is as unacceptable as it is against America, but refused to hold any country or group responsible for the Jammu outrage, though it undermines peace and stability in the region. In Islamabad, she showers praise on Gen. Musharraf for his commitment to the international fight against terrorism, which, obviously, excluded India. She wanted India to talk to Pakistan to resolve the conflict because, without dialogue there could be no progress on any front.

Washington refuses to take note of the fact that Gen. Musharraf has set free most of the jehadis whom he had arrested to score points with it. National Security Adviser to President Bush, Condoleezza Rice, wants time to be given for Gen. Musharraf's anti-terrorism agenda to work and "more importantly" to begin a dialogue over the issues that are the root cause. Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage edorses Gen. Musharraf's line that since Pakistan was a nuclear armed country, India had no choice but to avoid a clash, which could become nuclear, and to resume talks with Pakistan over Kashmir. Nobody talks seriously about cross-border terrorism and the threat to India's security; the emphasis is on accepting Pakistan's credentials as they are, normalise relations and do business with it, as usual.

After Washington's endorsement of his Presidential referendum, Gen. Musharraf exudes a great deal of self-confidence. Having involved the U.S. militarily in Pakistan on a permanent basis, and leaving it no escape route, he now dictates terms to Washington for his continued cooperation. Washington's efforts to get at Osama bin Laden, his Al Qaeda fighters, Mullah Omar and his Taliban hardcore are unlikely to succeed in the near future because they have been provided sanctuary in Pakistan. As long as the chase against them continues, so long will the U.S.A. stay engaged in Pakistan and continue to supply it with loans and arms to bolster its economy and fighting potential.

Prime Minister Vajpayee's expectation that Washington will armtwist Islamabad into calling off the terrorist campaign in Kashmir has been belied. At the moment U.S.A. forces are lost in the alleys of Pakistan's crowded cities and gullies of the mountains looking for Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and the rest of the gang Gen. Musharraf, with the Pentagon's help, has effectively neutralised the capacity of the White House to intervene on India's behalf, if President Bush ever so intended, to stop terrorist attacks. So, India has now to take recourse to its own devices because American pressure on Pakistan will not be effectively applied in the first instance, and Islamabad's compliance will never be sought. Washington is in no position now to pull out of the anti-Osama-Omar campaign, but stay involved on terms craftily dictated by Gen. Musharraf. Washington's role as a peacemaker has thus been effectively compromised, for it is now fully aligned on Pakistan's side, regardless of the implications for India.

India is being advised restraint because a conflict, even a limited one, will divert Pakistan attention more towards its eastern frontier and the U.S.A.-led antiBin Laden campaign will suffer. That is why India is being asked to suffer in silence, bear the pain and anguish caused by terrorist raids and never take any retaliatory action against Pakistan. This is the biggest dilemma facing the Indian leadership which, in the first place, blundered into putting too much faith Washington's words and, in the second, in not taking whatever punitive action was needed to teach the military dictator in Islamabad a lesson. India has been rendered inactive by Pakistan's threat to use the nuclear bomb if its territorial integrity is seriously threatened, a warning endorsed by Washington. President Bush has failed to get Gen. Musharraf to act on his anti-jehadi promise and commitment to eradicate terrorism, even though he never accepted that the terrorists operating in Kashmir were his commandos.

Without acting on the ground, Indian leaders keep repeating that terrorism has now become "intolerable" and that they are considering an "appropriate" response at the "proper" time. The massing of the bulk of the Indian Army along the border with Pakistan and the LoC has neither unnerved Gen. Musharraf nor inflicted unbearable financial costs on Pakistan's economy. The situation is being utilised by Gen. Musharraf to bring pressure to bear on the U.S.A. to intervene and get India to the negotiating table to discuss Kashmir. This is precisely what Christina Rocca and other U.S.A. Administration officials are doing. It is through American or other international intervention that Pakistan sees hope of extracting concessions from India in Kashmir. In a way, the American perception of a negotiated settlement feeds Pakistan's delusion that it will be able to grab Kashmir through a proxy war and threatening to escalate to nuclear confrontation. Gen. Musharraf has never missed any opportunity of holding out the nuclear threat in the hope of alerting the West and pressurising India to negotiate. Having massed the troops along the border, it is difficult for India to pull them back without achieving its objective, at least, partly. Cross-border infiltration will go up in the summer months, dictating the need for greater vigilance and action at and inside the border. Islamabad has refused to hand over the 20 wanted criminals to India and Washington which, at some stage, pleaded India's case before Musharraf, has given up the effort. India also wants to ensure that the ensuing elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly take place in a peaceful atmosphere and Pakistan-sponsored terrorists are not permitted to disrupt it. Pakistan has moved the bulk of the jehadi outfits involved in insurgency, as well as, terrorist bases to its part of Kashmir from where forays are made into the India side.

The Vajpayee Government is under great pressure to take the battle to the enemy. It could do so by striking across the LoC or the international border at terrorist bases and camps or act otherwise to inflict economic punishment on Pakistan. But, it has first to put its act together and summon up courage and resources to implement its plan of action, if any. If action has to wait till the Kashmir Assembly elections take place in September, that is a long way from here as, in the coming weeks, more horrendous incidents will be enacted by Pakistan. The people cannot forgive the Government as they did at the time of the Kargil conflict when India sacrificed hundreds of its soldiers to recover territory it had lost to Pakistan. The least the U.S.A. can do is to convey a message to Islamabad that Indian patience is running out and that its brinkmanship over Kashmir will not pay any dividends. Issuing of nuclear threats by Gen. Musharraf in the context of a conventional war with India should invite a decisive American response, which should include forced denuclearisation of Pakistan.

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