xpressions
of shock and sympathy by U.S. President George Bush, his Secretary of
State, Colin Powell and others over the Pakistan-sponsored horrendous
terrorist attack near Jammu cannot heal Indian sentiments deeply wounded
by Gen. Pervez Musharraf's diabolical acts. Nor do unanimous
parliamentary resolutions, condemnatory of the action, necessarily
inject a sense of responsibility or determination to act in the Union
Government which, for years, has been promising counter- measures to
eliminate the threat from Islamabad. The policy of restraint pursued by
the Government is an apology for inaction, which may win it some brownie
points from patronising Western countries. But it is undermining public
morale, raising doubts about the Government's ability to respond
effectively to threats to national unity and integrity.
It is now as clear as daylight that the United
States' policy towards the sub-continent has again developed a tilt
towards Pakistan, which the Clinton Administration had painstakingly
tried to correct, with the result that India's strong case on
cross-border terrorism does not register. New Delhi is clearly told that
it cannot expect Pakistan, which has re-emerged as a crucial member of
the U.S.-anti-terrorism alliance and whose friendship is essential for
the furtherance of Washington's vital interests in the region and
Central Asia, to change. On the contrary, Vajpayee, Jaswant Singh and
others are clearly told that India must resume talks with Pakistan over
Kashmir if relaxation of tension, as argued by Gen. Musharraf, is to be
achieved. President Bush offered condolences to Vajpayee and, at the
same time, asked him not to escalate the situation. Assistant Secretary
of State Christina Rocca, while in New Delhi repeated the American
phraseology that terrorism against India is as unacceptable as it is
against America, but refused to hold any country or group responsible
for the Jammu outrage, though it undermines peace and stability in the
region. In Islamabad, she showers praise on Gen. Musharraf for his
commitment to the international fight against terrorism, which,
obviously, excluded India. She wanted India to talk to Pakistan to
resolve the conflict because, without dialogue there could be no
progress on any front.
Washington refuses to take note of the fact that Gen.
Musharraf has set free most of the jehadis whom he had arrested to score
points with it. National Security Adviser to President Bush, Condoleezza
Rice, wants time to be given for Gen. Musharraf's anti-terrorism agenda
to work and "more importantly" to begin a dialogue over the issues that
are the root cause. Deputy Secretary Richard Armitage edorses Gen.
Musharraf's line that since Pakistan was a nuclear armed country, India
had no choice but to avoid a clash, which could become nuclear, and to
resume talks with Pakistan over Kashmir. Nobody talks seriously about
cross-border terrorism and the threat to India's security; the emphasis
is on accepting Pakistan's credentials as they are, normalise relations
and do business with it, as usual.
After Washington's endorsement of his Presidential
referendum, Gen. Musharraf exudes a great deal of self-confidence.
Having involved the U.S. militarily in Pakistan on a permanent basis,
and leaving it no escape route, he now dictates terms to Washington for
his continued cooperation. Washington's efforts to get at Osama bin
Laden, his Al Qaeda fighters, Mullah Omar and his Taliban hardcore are
unlikely to succeed in the near future because they have been provided
sanctuary in Pakistan. As long as the chase against them continues, so
long will the U.S.A. stay engaged in Pakistan and continue to supply it
with loans and arms to bolster its economy and fighting potential.
Prime Minister Vajpayee's expectation that Washington
will armtwist Islamabad into calling off the terrorist campaign in
Kashmir has been belied. At the moment U.S.A. forces are lost in the
alleys of Pakistan's crowded cities and gullies of the mountains looking
for Bin Laden, Mullah Omar and the rest of the gang Gen. Musharraf, with
the Pentagon's help, has effectively neutralised the capacity of the
White House to intervene on India's behalf, if President Bush ever so
intended, to stop terrorist attacks. So, India has now to take recourse
to its own devices because American pressure on Pakistan will not be
effectively applied in the first instance, and Islamabad's compliance
will never be sought. Washington is in no position now to pull out of
the anti-Osama-Omar campaign, but stay involved on terms craftily
dictated by Gen. Musharraf. Washington's role as a peacemaker has thus
been effectively compromised, for it is now fully aligned on Pakistan's
side, regardless of the implications for India.
India is being advised restraint because a conflict,
even a limited one, will divert Pakistan attention more towards its
eastern frontier and the U.S.A.-led antiBin Laden campaign will suffer.
That is why India is being asked to suffer in silence, bear the pain and
anguish caused by terrorist raids and never take any retaliatory action
against Pakistan. This is the biggest dilemma facing the Indian
leadership which, in the first place, blundered into putting too much
faith Washington's words and, in the second, in not taking whatever
punitive action was needed to teach the military dictator in Islamabad a
lesson. India has been rendered inactive by Pakistan's threat to use the
nuclear bomb if its territorial integrity is seriously threatened, a
warning endorsed by Washington. President Bush has failed to get Gen.
Musharraf to act on his anti-jehadi promise and commitment to eradicate
terrorism, even though he never accepted that the terrorists operating
in Kashmir were his commandos.
Without acting on the ground, Indian leaders keep
repeating that terrorism has now become "intolerable" and that they are
considering an "appropriate" response at the "proper" time. The massing
of the bulk of the Indian Army along the border with Pakistan and the
LoC has neither unnerved Gen. Musharraf nor inflicted unbearable
financial costs on Pakistan's economy. The situation is being utilised
by Gen. Musharraf to bring pressure to bear on the U.S.A. to intervene
and get India to the negotiating table to discuss Kashmir. This is
precisely what Christina Rocca and other U.S.A. Administration officials
are doing. It is through American or other international intervention
that Pakistan sees hope of extracting concessions from India in Kashmir.
In a way, the American perception of a negotiated settlement feeds
Pakistan's delusion that it will be able to grab Kashmir through a proxy
war and threatening to escalate to nuclear confrontation. Gen. Musharraf
has never missed any opportunity of holding out the nuclear threat in
the hope of alerting the West and pressurising India to negotiate.
Having massed the troops along the border, it is difficult for India to
pull them back without achieving its objective, at least, partly.
Cross-border infiltration will go up in the summer months, dictating the
need for greater vigilance and action at and inside the border.
Islamabad has refused to hand over the 20 wanted criminals to India and
Washington which, at some stage, pleaded India's case before Musharraf,
has given up the effort. India also wants to ensure that the ensuing
elections to the Jammu and Kashmir Assembly take place in a peaceful
atmosphere and Pakistan-sponsored terrorists are not permitted to
disrupt it. Pakistan has moved the bulk of the jehadi outfits involved
in insurgency, as well as, terrorist bases to its part of Kashmir from
where forays are made into the India side.
The Vajpayee Government is under great pressure to
take the battle to the enemy. It could do so by striking across the LoC
or the international border at terrorist bases and camps or act
otherwise to inflict economic punishment on Pakistan. But, it has first
to put its act together and summon up courage and resources to implement
its plan of action, if any. If action has to wait till the Kashmir
Assembly elections take place in September, that is a long way from here
as, in the coming weeks, more horrendous incidents will be enacted by
Pakistan. The people cannot forgive the Government as they did at the
time of the Kargil conflict when India sacrificed hundreds of its
soldiers to recover territory it had lost to Pakistan. The least the
U.S.A. can do is to convey a message to Islamabad that Indian patience
is running out and that its brinkmanship over Kashmir will not pay any
dividends. Issuing of nuclear threats by Gen. Musharraf in the context
of a conventional war with India should invite a decisive American
response, which should include forced denuclearisation of Pakistan.