he detection of two bombs
near the royal palace on April 26 just when King Gyanendra was to pass
through shows which way the wind is blowing in the Himalayan kingdom.
It is apparently part of the Maoist's (MCC) plan to capture power
after the assassination of King Birendra and Queen Aiyeshwarya last
year.
The Maoists have adopted the same tactics that Mao
tse Tung used to seize power in China before 1949. In the Sixties,
President Sukarno of Indonesia also faced a similar situation, which
ultimately led to the take-over by General Suharto. The rebels in
Nepal are terrorising people in the rural areas which do not have
adequate surveillance by the police. The five-day general strike
called by the rebels, from April 23 to 27, was also part of the grand
design.
Who are these so - called Maoists? Are they agents
of the Chinese and the Pakistani ISI, funded by these two countries?
After all, no agitation or subversion can be carried out without
funds. The killing of policemen in remote villages show that the
Nepalese police are not an organised force and do not have sufficient
arms and ammunition.
They have yet to learn the art of tackling
subversive elements, never having faced much a problem before. The
illiterate masses in Nepal have always been fed anti-India propaganda.
They are also not politically conscious. On the other hand, there is a
long porous border in the south, giving the subversive elements easy
access to a clandestine supply of arms and ammunition. The landlocked
geography of Nepal has always been an irksome factor because of their
need for an Indian gateway for supply of essential articles. The 1965
Indo-Pak war compelled them to shift their attention to India.
In the late Eighties Nepal was shaken by a violent
pro-democracy movement. After a great deal of resistance, King
Birendra conceded to the demand of the people for a democratic
government. Democracy was thus introduced in 1990.
The Leftist parties formed the Unity Centre in
November 1990. But it did not last long. In 1994, the Maoists broke
away and formed the Communist Party of Nepal (CM-M) for fulfilment of
their dream for a 'red' Nepal.
The Maoists drew up a new programme of radical
socio-political reforms through violent means, They won the support of
the rural population in western Nepal. On November 25, 2001. they
broke up talks with the Deuba government for peaceful reforms. Finding
them in a violent mood the government declared a national emergency
the next day and asked the army to suppress the movement ruthlessly.
But the Maoists did not look back and started killing policemen to
terrorise the people. It was the culmination of their offensive
against the government since 1996. So far they have covered 45 of the
75 districts of western Nepal. One of the main political demands of
the Maoists is the snapping of ties with India.
The Nepali Congress government brought political
stability to the country under the G. P. Koirala government in 1991.
But the struggle for power within the Nepali Congress gave the
Communists an opportunity to capture power and expand their influence
in the rural areas. The political vacuum created by the weakening of
the Nepali Congress suited the ISI and the Chinese. From 1990 onwards
up to June 2001, ten governments have ruled the kingdom. The
assassination of King Birendra and his Queen in June 2001 came as a
windfall for the ISI and the Chinese. King Gyanendra who was hailed by
them earlier is not so popular now. His desire to see his son Paras on
the throne is yet to find favour with the people. The administration
is too weak to suppress the subversive elements.
Washington understands the international
ramifications of the Maoist offensive. It has released US$ 40 billion
to check the dangerous drift from democracy to anarchy which could
lead to a dangerous cocktail of Communism and Muslim fundamentalism.
The U. S aid is aimed at checking Chinese expansion beyond Tibet. The
Deuba government is sandwiched between a monarch and his dazed
administrators. The common man is fearful of the anarchists. The
people do not have confidence in the ability of the administrators to
protect them from the Maoists. This growing uncertainty will ruin
Nepal's economy. Tourists have already started avoiding the bus
journey to Kathmandu. Businessmen are being warned off by the rebels,
asking them to leave Nepal. Those at the helm of affairs in New Delhi
will have to impress upon the King and the Nepal government that they
should see the writing on the wall. The porous border with Nepal
should be guarded well to prevent the supply of arms and ammunition.
Those nurturing anti-India feelings in Nepal should understand the
game being played by Islamabad and Beijing and take preventive
measures before it is too late, This is no time for giving vent to
their anger against New Delhi because only India can respond to SOS
message from Kathmandu, not the Pentagon. Nepal may not be able to
meet the twin threat from the ISI and Chinese elements. Time is
running out.