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The political
climate is changing fast. Two years ago, Prime Minister Atal
Behari Vajpayee was in a fairly comfortable position. The
coalition at the Centre had the numerical strength to
withstand any challenge and the allies had little option but
to support the Prime Minister whether they agreed with his
policies or not. It was more due to survival instinct and
their own compulsions, that the regional parties did not
create any problem for the NDA. The Telugu Desam Party leader,
Chandrababu Naidu, for instance, did recently show his
resentment over the refusal of the PM to sack Gujarat Chief
Minister Narendra Modi, but lacked the courage to withdraw
support. The TINA (There Is No Alternative) factor ensured the
longevity of the BJP-led government.
The situation after the last round of Assembly elections, the
Ayodhya dispute and the recent communal violence in Gujarat is
totally different. The election results in Uttar Pradesh,
Uttaranchal and Punjab exposed the vulnerability of the BJP
and its dwindling influence among the voters.
Concurrently, the Congress suddenly found its fortunes rising.
Sonia Gandhi, who was once the butt of jokes in the media for
her Hindi diction is now a leader to watch, with 14 States in
her kitty. Her newly-gained confidence shows her
aggressiveness and political maturity. Soon, two more States—Goa
and Gujarat— will have Assembly elections and the results will
indicate if the Congress fortunes continue on the upward path.
The secular allies of the BJP are seeing the shifting
loyalties of the voters across the country. There’s little
doubt they feel suffocated within the coalition as the hawks
in the BJP apply pressure for a total shift to the Hindutva
mode. I feel strongly that any over-emphasis on the saffron
agenda of instilling fear and a sense of insecurity among the
Muslims will be counter-productive as well as dangerous. The
attempt to divide society on communal lines could have
disastrous consequences. If BJP leaders like Jana
Krishnamurthy and others in the RSS and VHP keep quiet for
some time, the Prime Minister will have a chance to restore
the minority community’s faith and trust in the government.
The Prime Minister is at present faced with dissensions within
the BJP and continuous battering from the Sangh outfits, while
a belligerent opposition keeps breathing down his neck. Thus
with the TINA factor in favour of Vajpayee fast disappearing,
I wonder whether the SITA (Sonia Is the Alternative) factor is
tilting the scales in favour of Sonia Gandhi. |
