The
expectation that the outlawed ULFA may come to the negotiating table has
surfaced again. Dada Saheb Phalke Award win-ner Bhupen Hazarika and a number
of eminent personalities have offered to mediate and bring the banned outfit
to talks. Rebati Phukan, a prominent busi-nessman-turned-politician and a
childhood friend of Paresh Barua, the C-in-C of ULFA, has also offered to be
a mediator. However, the ULFA has issued a statement saying no one has been
entrusted to act as the mediator. The militant group also criticised Phukan
for his unsolicited endeavour to bring the organisation to the negotiating
table. A prominent editor of a daily published from Guwahati had requested
Chief Minister Tarun Gogoi to appoint Phukan as an intermediary to initiate
talks with the ULFA. However, the Chief Minister turned down the proposal.
Phukan, with the help of the same editor, had also approached former chief
minister Hiteswar Saikia in 1992. But, then too, it did not yield any
fruitful result. Interestingly, this time, the ULFA has not denied the terms
for talks. The ULFA is facing a tough time because many of its cadres either
have been killed or arrested by security forces during the last two years. A
number of top leaders of the National Democratic Front (NDFB)—a Bodo
militant outfit and a close ally of the ULFA—have been recently arrested by
security forces. However, observers say the arrests are stage-managed.
Militants are scared to surrender because of fear of reprisal. So they
secretly contact the police and get arrested. The recent arrests of a few
ULFA leaders may be on these lines. Sources said there is a rift between
sections in the ULFA on whether or not to come for talks. The pressure
doubled on the hawks within the ULFA, especially after the NSCN (I-M) came
forward and held parleys with the Centre. On the other hand, the government
of India is pressuring the Bhutanese government to destroy ULFA and Bodo
camps and this has put the outlawed groups in a spot. The Indian Army chief
recently went to Bhutan with a detailed plan to weed out the ULFA from that
country.
The ongoing exercise to improve bilateral relations
between India and Pakistan could have a deep impact on the insurgent outfits
that are operating from across the border in Bangladesh. Pakistan, which has
banned the Hizbul Mujahideen as part of its goodwill exercise, might ask the
ISI operating from Bangladesh not to sponsor the militant groups of
north-east India. The Indo-Pak exercise may also have a positive impact on
Indo-Bangladesh relations. India recently communicated to Dhaka about
details of rebel camps operating from that country.
This would put tremendous pressure on the ULFA, which was
receiving help from the ISI bases in Bangladesh and was virtually carrying
out their diktat. The ISI’s support to the Muslim United Liberation Front of
Assam (MULTA) is also being stopped. The MULTA militants are being trained
in Cox Bazar area of Bangladesh. A mosque near Hathijan is believed to be
used by the ISI to train the militants. The ISI has been trying to form an
Islamic militant organisation in Assam since long. However, after the
present process of normalising relations between India and Pakistan got
underway, the ISI stopped its operations—at least for the time being.
Generally, all north-east militant groups operating from Bangladesh are
having a tough time. The Ministry of Home Affairs listed 824
non-governmental organisations of the north-east that allegedly have close
links with the ultras. (See Box) Of these, 151 NGOs are in Assam. The ULFA
has strong links with the LTTE of Sri Lanka and it is understood that some
cadres of both the outfits are trained in Afghanistan and also in Pakistan.
A group of Sri Lankan journalists, whom this reporter recently met in
Chennai, also believe that the ULFA has close links with the LTTE. The Sri
Lankan government is trying hard to bring the LTTE to the negotiating table.
The LTTE has also emanated positive signals. After the NSCN (I-M) and the
LTTE changing direction, pressure is building on the ULFA. Its now up to
them whether to follow their Naga and Tamil brethren or to remain hawks.