The decision of the conclave of Congress chief minis-ters in Srinagar to seek understanding and alliances with other opposi-tion parties in the coming elections was an admission of the fact that the Congress Party is not in a position on its own to challenge the National Democratic Alliance nor stake its claim to form the government at the Centre single-handedly. This had been obvious to all for a long time, but the Congress took a long time to acknowledge this fact, a long journey from Pachmarhi to Srinagar.

The cooler climate in Srinagar probably made for realistic deliberations. It is obvious that while admitting the fact that the Congress alone is not in a position to call the shots, the party is now looking at the limited objective of toppling the Mayawati government in Uttar Pradesh, an obvious priority with the likes of Mulayam Singh and others in that State. Sonia Gandhi has more ambitious targets in mind than power at the Centre, which is not likely to fructify unless the Congress is able to pick up strong allies en-route.

The problem for national parties like the Congress or the BJP is that they may make tall claims but are in fact not in a position to get anything more than 200 seats in a Lok Sabha poll which is short of absolute majority by a long margin. For instance, the Congress Party has no strength or following in the twin States of U. P. and Bihar which sends nearly one third of the total strength of the Lok Sabha. Without making any fresh gains in these crucial States, there is no chance for the Congress Party to emerge as a major contender for power at the Centre. In the absence of its own strength, it has no option but to fall back on the Yadavs like Mulayam Singh and Laloo Prasad to come back in the reckoning. Sonia Gandhi had made her peace with Laloo Prasad Yadav long ago, but Mulayam Singh Yadav had been trying to act difficult till Mayawati aimed some heavy blows at his base which left him dazed. On coming back, he saw the reality on the wall that he needs some outside support if he is to survive the onslaught by Mayawati.

In such a realistic mood, it is no surprise that the two sides have decided to bury the past and make a fresh bid for power in U. P. The task is not going to be easy as Mayawati has created a vested interest in the dalit community to keep herself in power. Under the circumstances, one can predict that in the coming days, politics will sink to a new low while the two sides battle for supremacy in U. P. Irrespective of the outcome, which will be a close finish, one thing is certain that the State of U. P. will sink further with no hope of getting out of the current mess in which it is placed.

As for the national political scene, the contest for power in States like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Chattisgarh, Uttaranchal and Delhi is drawing near. The politics of caste, including reservations and Hindutva, is being played to the hilt. There are no clear winners or losers as fortunes are changing everyday. Rajasthan which looked ripe for falling into the lap of the BJP at one stage has noticed a kind of turnaround. The clever card of seeking reservations for upper castes played by Ashok Gehlot, Rajasthan Chief Minister, has caught the BJP on the wrong foot. If it supports the move, the credit will go to Gehlot and in case they oppose it they stand to lose their major vote bank.

In Madhya Pradesh, Digvijay Singh, State Chief Minister, is proving to be a very clever opponent for the BJP nominee.

Given this scenario, both the Congress and the BJP will have to woo their State allies in a big way.