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BY VIJAY SANGHVI

Unless the Congress is able to perform better in the Hindi belt – 10 states with 225 seats in the Lok Sabha — the Congress hopes of returning to power with a majority on its own or even with the support of small parties would remain only a dream.

The BJP Government has also announced tax sops for the middle class and cut in customs duties to attract the vote bank.
 

With a briefcase in the right hand, Congress president Sonia Gandhi briskly walked into the All India Congress Committee (AICC) headquarters. Behind her trooped in other members of the working committee and other special invitees for the meeting that was to evolve the strategy for the Lok Sabha elections that were sure to come in April-end this year.

No doubt is left for the early elections. After all the Vajpayee Government had not sought to prorogue the Lok Sabha even though the winter session had ended on December 22, 2003. It was a sure sign of a sudden session of parliament for a Vote on Account for the Centre and also for Andhra Pradesh.

The working committee deliberations obviously concentrated on evolving the strategy for the future. As one member put it, there was no debate over apportioning the blame for the past performance. There was no profit in it. Hence we talked of the future only. But it would appear that the party had concentrated only on devising the strategy to prevent the splitting on the anti-establishment votes by knocking on every door that did not belong to the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) or its known allies in the National Democratic Alliance (NDA). But there was no deliberation on what the Indian National Congress headed by Sonia Gandhi would like to offer to the younger generation by way of a dream. Kamal Nath did bring up the issue of addressing the younger generation to attract them to the Congress and win their votes.

After all the electoral politics is nothing more than the business of selling dreams to the electorate. Instead of devising the dream, the AICC has decided to adopt the desperate method of aligning itself with smaller parties as allies in different states where it thought to be on a weaker wicket. But it seems to be not only desperate but also a difficult process.

The Congress had decided not to participate in the Mulayam Singh Government in Uttar Pradesh because of its association with the Rashtriya Kranti Party of the former Chief Minister Kalyan Singh because the Congress had blamed him of his role in demolition of the Babri Masjid in December, 1992. But Subodh Kant Sahay, who is in charge of the party affairs in Uttar Pradesh, was rushed to the residence of Kalyan Singh in Lucknow with a floral bouquet to greet him on his birthday. What other gesture could have displayed the desperation of the Congress president?

Senior leader Man Mohan Singh has already met with the DMK chief Karunanidhi and discussed the party issues. As soon as Karunanidhi announced his separation from the NDA, Sonia Gandhi was conversing with him over the phone. Did anyone point out to her that this would give a grand opportunity to the Sangh Parivar to question her credentials of the Indian culture? The Sangh Parivar is a past master in the whisper campaigns. It opens up the opportunity to point out that the widow who had only five years earlier accused the DMK as a part of conspiracy to assassinate her husband was today standing by the shoulders of the same persons. Can this be called a sign of Indian culture? It might not matter much in Tamil Nadu but what would be the impact of such a whisper campaign in other parts of the country? Did any one point this out to her?

The Congress also seems eager to work out the seat adjustments with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati. But it does not know how to reconcile with Mulayam Singh of Samajwadi Party who has clearly declared that he would not be a part of any combination that would accommodate Mayawati for she had thrice become the Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh with the support of BJP. And without support of Mulayam Singh in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress cannot hope to perform better than it did in the assembly elections.

Unless the Congress is able to perform better in the Hindi belt – 10 states with 225 seats in the Lok Sabha — the Congress hopes of returning to power with a majority on its own or even with the support of small parties would remain only a dream. Of 10 states in Hindi belt, the Congress is pitted against the BJP in six states. In other three states, there is a strong presence of the regional parties that could spoil the gameplans of both the national parties. Three states have 134 seats in the Lok Sabha.

For the BJP also the big question mark is performance in Uttar Pradesh. Unless it was able to win more than 35 seats in Uttar Pradesh, its tally would not reach the same mark as it holds now in the Lok Sabha. The last assembly performance did not show better prospects for the BJP because it was pushed to a third position by two parties that have openly taken an adverse attitude to construction of the Ram temple on the disputed territory in Ayodhya.

But then the BJP has changed the ground rules for the election campaign and virtually jettisoned the Ram temple controversy from its baggage during the election campaign in the four Hindi belt states where the assembly elections were held in last December. Instead it talked on modern issues of governance and performance. The BJP chief Venkaiah Naidu has given an indication that it would stick to the same. He said that the party would stick to the issues of performance and governance. Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani was more elaborate when he said that the party would go to the people with its record of achievements in five years of its governance and also with what it would achieve in the next five years.

The BJP can add to its campaign material the breakthrough that the Prime Minister Vajpayee has achieved in Islamabad during the SAARC meeting when he made the Pakistan President Musharraf to agree to a dialogue without any pre-conditions. It was no mean achievement. It has won a loud applause from countries across the world. It may not win many votes from the Muslim community but it would certainly further consolidate the traditional vote banks. The Vajpayee Government has shown that it has now realised that no government could profit from keeping the society in a constant state of civil war by dividing it on the basis of religion or castes. It’s desire for the peace and normal relations with the neighbours was also displayed in the Free Trade Agreement that was signed in Islamabad at the SAARC meeting.

The BJP would put all emphasis only on the achievements of the past five years as evident even from advertisements that have been appearing in the media across the country from various ministries. The BJP chief also had his high command meeting when he invited the Cabinet ministers to the party headquarters to discuss the strategy for the elections to the Lok Sabha. They have been assigned the task of filling in the details in the dream that the party intends to sell to the electorate in the next elections. The Cabinet has also been at work for it and approved a new social security scheme for workers in the unorganised sectors of the country. It was hurried to adopt the measure before it dissolved the Lok Sabha before the month-end and set the time-table for the elections and also for the code of conduct comes in effective operations. It has also announced tax sops for the middle class and cut in customs duties to attract the vote bank.

The political parties are now fully in the election mode. The BJP appears to be confident. The Congress is full of hopes and other parties are unsure though desperate. But the observers point out the possibilities that number of small parties would be much larger in the Lok Sabha after the next elections. Some predict that their numbers might reach the mark of 300 seats leaving only 250 seats for the two national parties —the BJP and the Congress. They fear that the regional parties from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh would have a large say in the next Lok Sabha and the government that would emerge. They differ in opinions and estimates but they all agree that there were no possibilities of a single party reaching the majority on its own in near future, definitely not after the next elections.

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