With
a briefcase in the right hand, Congress president Sonia Gandhi briskly
walked into the All India Congress Committee (AICC) headquarters. Behind
her trooped in other members of the working committee and other special
invitees for the meeting that was to evolve the strategy for the Lok
Sabha elections that were sure to come in April-end this year.
No doubt is left for the early elections. After all
the Vajpayee Government had not sought to prorogue the Lok Sabha even
though the winter session had ended on December 22, 2003. It was a sure
sign of a sudden session of parliament for a Vote on Account for the
Centre and also for Andhra Pradesh.
The working committee deliberations obviously
concentrated on evolving the strategy for the future. As one member put
it, there was no debate over apportioning the blame for the past
performance. There was no profit in it. Hence we talked of the future
only. But it would appear that the party had concentrated only on
devising the strategy to prevent the splitting on the anti-establishment
votes by knocking on every door that did not belong to the Bharatiya
Janata Party (BJP) or its known allies in the National Democratic
Alliance (NDA). But there was no deliberation on what the Indian
National Congress headed by Sonia Gandhi would like to offer to the
younger generation by way of a dream. Kamal Nath did bring up the issue
of addressing the younger generation to attract them to the Congress and
win their votes.
After all the electoral politics is nothing more than
the business of selling dreams to the electorate. Instead of devising
the dream, the AICC has decided to adopt the desperate method of
aligning itself with smaller parties as allies in different states where
it thought to be on a weaker wicket. But it seems to be not only
desperate but also a difficult process.
The Congress had decided not to participate in the
Mulayam Singh Government in Uttar Pradesh because of its association
with the Rashtriya Kranti Party of the former Chief Minister Kalyan
Singh because the Congress had blamed him of his role in demolition of
the Babri Masjid in December, 1992. But Subodh Kant Sahay, who is in
charge of the party affairs in Uttar Pradesh, was rushed to the
residence of Kalyan Singh in Lucknow with a floral bouquet to greet him
on his birthday. What other gesture could have displayed the desperation
of the Congress president?
Senior leader Man Mohan Singh has already met with
the DMK chief Karunanidhi and discussed the party issues. As soon as
Karunanidhi announced his separation from the NDA, Sonia Gandhi was
conversing with him over the phone. Did anyone point out to her that
this would give a grand opportunity to the Sangh Parivar to question her
credentials of the Indian culture? The Sangh Parivar is a past master in
the whisper campaigns. It opens up the opportunity to point out that the
widow who had only five years earlier accused the DMK as a part of
conspiracy to assassinate her husband was today standing by the
shoulders of the same persons. Can this be called a sign of Indian
culture? It might not matter much in Tamil Nadu but what would be the
impact of such a whisper campaign in other parts of the country? Did any
one point this out to her?
The Congress also seems eager to work out the seat
adjustments with Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) of Mayawati. But it does not
know how to reconcile with Mulayam Singh of Samajwadi Party who has
clearly declared that he would not be a part of any combination that
would accommodate Mayawati for she had thrice become the Chief Minister
of Uttar Pradesh with the support of BJP. And without support of Mulayam
Singh in Uttar Pradesh, the Congress cannot hope to perform better than
it did in the assembly elections.
Unless the Congress is able to perform better in the
Hindi belt – 10 states with 225 seats in the Lok Sabha — the Congress
hopes of returning to power with a majority on its own or even with the
support of small parties would remain only a dream. Of 10 states in
Hindi belt, the Congress is pitted against the BJP in six states. In
other three states, there is a strong presence of the regional parties
that could spoil the gameplans of both the national parties. Three
states have 134 seats in the Lok Sabha.
For the BJP also the big question mark is performance
in Uttar Pradesh. Unless it was able to win more than 35 seats in Uttar
Pradesh, its tally would not reach the same mark as it holds now in the
Lok Sabha. The last assembly performance did not show better prospects
for the BJP because it was pushed to a third position by two parties
that have openly taken an adverse attitude to construction of the Ram
temple on the disputed territory in Ayodhya.
But then the BJP has changed the ground rules for the
election campaign and virtually jettisoned the Ram temple controversy
from its baggage during the election campaign in the four Hindi belt
states where the assembly elections were held in last December. Instead
it talked on modern issues of governance and performance. The BJP chief
Venkaiah Naidu has given an indication that it would stick to the same.
He said that the party would stick to the issues of performance and
governance. Deputy Prime Minister L K Advani was more elaborate when he
said that the party would go to the people with its record of
achievements in five years of its governance and also with what it would
achieve in the next five years.
The BJP can add to its campaign material the
breakthrough that the Prime Minister Vajpayee has achieved in Islamabad
during the SAARC meeting when he made the Pakistan President Musharraf
to agree to a dialogue without any pre-conditions. It was no mean
achievement. It has won a loud applause from countries across the world.
It may not win many votes from the Muslim community but it would
certainly further consolidate the traditional vote banks. The Vajpayee
Government has shown that it has now realised that no government could
profit from keeping the society in a constant state of civil war by
dividing it on the basis of religion or castes. It’s desire for the
peace and normal relations with the neighbours was also displayed in the
Free Trade Agreement that was signed in Islamabad at the SAARC meeting.
The BJP would put all emphasis only on the
achievements of the past five years as evident even from advertisements
that have been appearing in the media across the country from various
ministries. The BJP chief also had his high command meeting when he
invited the Cabinet ministers to the party headquarters to discuss the
strategy for the elections to the Lok Sabha. They have been assigned the
task of filling in the details in the dream that the party intends to
sell to the electorate in the next elections. The Cabinet has also been
at work for it and approved a new social security scheme for workers in
the unorganised sectors of the country. It was hurried to adopt the
measure before it dissolved the Lok Sabha before the month-end and set
the time-table for the elections and also for the code of conduct comes
in effective operations. It has also announced tax sops for the middle
class and cut in customs duties to attract the vote bank.
The political parties are now fully in the election
mode. The BJP appears to be confident. The Congress is full of hopes and
other parties are unsure though desperate. But the observers point out
the possibilities that number of small parties would be much larger in
the Lok Sabha after the next elections. Some predict that their numbers
might reach the mark of 300 seats leaving only 250 seats for the two
national parties —the BJP and the Congress. They fear that the regional
parties from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Uttar Pradesh
would have a large say in the next Lok Sabha and the government that
would emerge. They differ in opinions and estimates but they all agree
that there were no possibilities of a single party reaching the majority
on its own in near future, definitely not after the next elections.