The SAARC summit has brought to focus aspects of Indo-Pak relations that could propel the two countries towards lasting peace. There is an increasing realisation that the dynamics of mutual benefit could be such that both the nations could stand to benefit immensely. And more importantly, there are indications now that a crucial apparatus within Pakistan comprising the Army, the ISI and Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, has begun to realise, whether under duress or otherwise, that waging a proxy war with India on Kashmir, is not the best course of action. Indeed, there is an unsaid belief about Indo-Pak relations here ----- if Pakistan wants ties with India to improve, they will ----- as India will be more than welcome to change matters for the better.

From the Indian point of view, the reasoning is quite simple and uncomplicated. Though good neighbourly relations with Pakistan is important, it is not the defining aspect of every day living amongst the majority of Indians as well as various political outfits. Indians are now people on the move who have tasted the first fruits of an increasingly liberalised and globalised economy. Whether in the form of doctors, engineers, back office agents of multinationals, nurses, teachers, entrepreneurs, they want to compete with the rest of the world, specially China, as the benefits can be enormous and are trickling in. Thus the consensus among political parties here is increasingly revolving around good governance, an agenda to deliver on infrastructure (electricity, roads, water, IT and communication) that can facilitate good living and handsome returns.

Most Indians prefer to ignore the day-to-day goings on in the Indo-Pak diplomatic quagmire and want to carry on with their business, unaffected, unless there is a India-Pakistan cricket contest being played or a terrorist attack in Kashmir or elsewhere, that too of a magnitude to attract attention. Even a high profile summit like SAARC has found less precedence in most national newspapers than a double century by Indian cricket icon Sachin Tendulkar at the Test series in Australia.

Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee knows that good relations with Pakistan will elevate his status as a statesman even further, but in the ultimate analysis during the elections that are due next year, he will be judged on the basis of his government’s ability to deliver on a host of other factors. Foreign relations will be just one of them. If Vajpayee is re-elected next year it will be on the basis of the good performance of the Indian economy. Good relations with Pakistan will be a bonus.

However, it is not the case with Pakistan where governments have been removed and dictators have taken over, solely on the basis of their handling of Indo-Pak relations. There has always been a feeling that if matters between India and Pakistan are to be sorted out, it will have to be more at the initiative of Pakistan than India. And, by all indications, Pakistan seems to be increasingly realising that good neighbourly relations with India is the one sure way towards its own prosperity.

The calls for a ceasefire along the Line of Control as well as doing away with implementing UN resolutions in Kashmir have come unilaterally from Pakistan. At the SAARC summit there has been no overt mention of the K-word from Pakistan, no reiteration of cross-border terrorism by India, which has perhaps never happened in recent history in a forum under such high media glare. This is as good as it can get as far as rhetoric is concerned, though there is still a lot of ground yet to cover. At the SAARC summit, there have been significant breakthroughs on the economic front. Away from the media focus on the one-to-one meetings between Vajpayee-Musharraf-Jamali, the real progress has been in the framework agreement on South Asian Free Trade Area (Safta). This will over the next decade boost economic cooperation between countries of the region, primarily, India and Pakistan. India already has free trade agreements with Nepal and Sri Lanka and is negotiating one with Bangladesh. Pakistan had blocked Safta for as long as it could, but the economic situation has now compelled it to change the attitude. This in turn will lead to closer people-to-people ties and create a network of friendly relationships through which issues such as Kashmir and cross-border terrorism can be meaningfully addressed. There is no other option as India will simply not discuss the Kashmir issue in a substantive manner unless the terror strikes diminish.

Pakistan’s change of heart, of course, has been helped in no small measure by the turn of events in the rest of the world. Post 9/11 America has played a pro-active role in the region. Leaders in Pakistan are forced to accept that after 9/11 ISI's so far highly successful policy of indirect war in Kashmir and bleeding India cannot continue. Moreover, the Americans have tightened the screws on Pakistan for grooming jehadis against India. The impact of Musharraf agreeing to America's innumerable dictates is overwhelming. That the jihadis are feeling the heat is borne by the fact that Musharraf escaped two recent assassination attempts, with evidence pointing towards Jaish elements in the Pakistan Occupied Kashmir (POK.) It is becoming difficult for Pakistani diplomats to counter the image of a 'terrorist state' in the diplomatic world.

There have also been reports emanating from Islamabad that battle fatigue is setting in the Pakistan army. The middle and lower cadre of the Pakistan Army is realising the futility of an indirect war with India. Opening of the Afghanistan front is also adding to their workload.

But, the most important change is the aspiration among Pakistanis to be economically developed. The images of India and other non-Islamic world telecast by private television channels and films have made an impact on the masses. Not just the industry leaders of Karachi and Lahore, but people in Federally Administrated Tribal areas and North West Frontier Province are also asking for their dues. Pakistan situation is unenviable. Despite a massive emotional and financial investment in militancy in Kashmir, it is no nearer to seeing India off from the state than it was in 1989. But in the period since then, the Indian economy has grown at a handsome pace and it has a GDP of $2.7 trillion (Purchasing power parity) as compared to Pakistan's $295 billion (PPP) or just 11 per cent of India's.

Pakistan's economy is growing at a sluggish 4 per cent while India's growth rate is double the figure. Poverty is declining in India with currently 25 per cent people are considered below the poverty line, but Pakistan which had one of the strongest economies in SAARC is now witnessing a growth of poverty, which currently accounts for 35 per cent of its population. Pakistan's dream of maintaining parity with India is now confined to the nuclear and military fields.