CONSIDERING the ease with which the Congress Party was routed in the Assembly elections in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee should not be in a tearing hurry to capitalise on the pro-BJP sentiment and go in for early Lok Sabha elections. Even though Venkaiah Naidu and Finance Minister Jaswant Singh have categorically asserted that the elections will take place as scheduled in October 2004 and a regular Budget will be presented in February, one is inclined to disbelieve politicians, who keep their electoral strategy under wraps to take advantage of the surprise factor. But in the current situation in which the BJP’s opponents are feeling low and are unlikely to regain much strength in a year’s time, there are no compelling reasons for dissolving the Lok Sabha before its full term.

To argue that the anti-incumbency factor was the main reason for the Congress’ defeat is a poor alibi for lack of organisational skills and effective electoral strategy. From day one, the defeated chief ministers allowed themselves to be fed with forecasts about their invincibility, resulting in over-confidence and a lack-lustre electoral campaign, which was no match to the massive assault mounted by the BJP.

Sonia Gandhi, surrounded as she is by a bagful of advisors lacking grassroots support and merely surviving at her largesse, is late in discovering that her chief ministers had not performed. But she offers no explanation for not making the discovery earlier and asking them to pull up their socks in time. While their defeat is a big blow to the Congress, the magnitude of the BJP’s victory makes it all the more alarming and humiliating for it.

The less said about the former chief ministers the better – Digvijay Singh and Ashok Gehlot—as both failed to mobilise the party for a big fight, draft national leaders in the campaign as the BJP did and read the warning on the wall, even though it was clearly and legibly written. They failed to gauge the scale of the resentment among sections of the population against their rule over non-fulfilment of promises and also the complicated caste equations.

They exuded both over-confidence and complacency after being given a free hand in the selection of candidates and campaigning during the elections. They failed to take remedial action, particularly in Madhya Pradesh, in improving roads and the power situation. In Rajasthan, the Congress failed to tackle corruption at the administrative level and deliver relief to the people when most needed. Gehlot failed to redress the grievances of the government servants, who became BJP’s unpaid campaigners, or to win over the Jats, who voted en masse for the BJP on a fatwa issued by the Jat Mahasangh.

Additionally, the Congress "crab culture" was in full play and there were more Central Congress leaders and their state satraps interested in pulling down the chief ministers than in seeing them triumph. The chief ministers were left to their devices, without wholehearted organisational support and Sonia Gandhi failed to gauge. Her rootless advisors, who have been defeated at the polls and made it to Parliament via Rajya Sabha, are as removed from the current trends in politics as one can imagine.

By backing Ajit Jogi, who showed clear criminal tendencies much before the election and after and allowing V.C. Shukla to split the party and form his NCP, Sonia exhibited lack of leadership qualities needed to run such a large organisation as the Congress, which is now fast shrinking in its sweep.

Other factors also responsible for the defeat are caste mobilisation and intensive campaigning in tribal areas, where the BJP has made inroads for the first time. While Jogi seemed initially to have the caste arithmetic and social equations working in his favour, the people were tired of his manipulative ways and the Judeo episode made life still more difficult for him. He demonstrated that he is unused to straight methods even after his defeat, for which the Congress High Command has now suspended him from the party.

As L.K. Advani has rightly put it, not only good governance but also prudent politics were essential for victory. The defeated chief ministers may have delivered good governance but they failed to be politically prudent and alienated sections of the population which were awaiting the opportunity to take their revenge.

Thanks to the go-it-alone attitude of the chief ministers, the BSP, SP and others managed to cut into the pro-Congress vote, though both parties performed badly. Yet, Sonia Gandhi, who herself shows preference for coalition politics, did not have her way and come to some adjustment with these parties to save her governments and convince the defeated chief ministers to take her advice. The party has repeated the mistake too often and refuses to learn its lesson that it has little chance of returning to power at the Centre alone.

Apart from the psychological advantage against the Congress, the win in the states has also boosted the BJP’s image and increased its clout with the coalition partners at the Centre. The election results have given a push to the party’s hopes that it will be able to outshine its 1999 performance in the Lok Sabha next year. But the process is time-consuming and requires political and organisational management of a high order. Venkaiah Naidu argues that the BJP needs time to strengthen the NDA and to prevent the emergence of an alternative front in which the Congress will be the dominant partner. The BJP ultimately wants to isolate the Congress to force it fight alone and get defeated once again.

George Fernandes is already working on the idea. He has united the Samata Party factions under his leadership, has established a rapport with Mulayam Singh Yadav to strengthen his anti-Congress stance and will work his way to end Mayawati’s estrangement. The NCP is ever willing to join any anti-Sonia Gandhi move and could easily become part of such a front. Since all these parties have leaders with prime ministerial ambitions, the effort is on to distance them from the Congress, which will not settle for anything less than Sonia Gandhi when it comes to leadership.

The Jats voted for the BJP in Rajasthan and the NCP supporters did not vote for Congress candidates where the party had not put up any candidates. The myth of their anti-BJP has thus been blasted. With the backing of the industrialists, who also support the BJP, Mulayam Singh Yadav has been parked firmly on Vajpayee’s side. The Congress did the right thing in not joining his ministry in UP.