The friendly dragon!

It appears that finally relations with China are going to take a genuinely friendly turn. Apart from pressures of various developments, the recent visit of UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi helped in breaking the ice. The new leadership in China is also inclined to offload the unwanted baggage of history and make a new beginning. It is to be hoped that in the near future infrastructure on the Indian side of the border would improve and trade there, which is minimal now, increase manifold.

by M. K. DHAR

If current thinking among the Chinese leadership in taking the strategic and cooperative relations with India to a higher level is any

indications, Prime Minister Dr. Manmohan Singh’s Beijing visit from Jan 12 may well mark another milestone in bilateral relations between the two Asian giants. Even on the complicated boundary issue, which has defied settlement for over half-a-century, some new suggestions and moves might be on the table to help the established mechanism of special representatives and working groups to break the deadlock in the negotiations.

This is the impression one gathers after a recent China visit after interacting with a cross-section of the policy-making and intellectual elite in the country, seriously desirous of improving relations with India despite occasional misgivings. These arise mainly from foreign-inspired reports and past utterances of some ministers in Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s NDA Government about India becoming a partner in the Bush Administration’s China “containment” policy. Beijing tried not a hide its concern and annoyance when recently it sent an official demarche to the governments of the so-called “Quad”-India, Japan, Australia and US-seeking to know what the proposed military engagement among them in the Indian ocean, which led to massive naval exercises were meant to be and against whom?

China is now more inclined to take relaxed view of the security scenario in Asia and the role of the United States. With its growing economic and military strength, China feels confident of defending itself and its economic and strategic interests. The imagined threat from the “Quad” also seems to have vanished with Bush –friendly governments in Japan and Australia having been thrown out and the Communists and the rightist BJP joining hands in India to oppose moves to form a strategic relations with the US, with the Indo-US nuclear deal becoming an unfortunate casualty.

However, suspicions about US policies in Asia and its strategic objectives still runs deep. The air has been partly cleared by the UPA Chairperson Sonia Gandhi during her meetings with the Chinese leaders on her recent China visit and Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s interaction with Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in Singapore. External Affairs Minister Pranab Mukherjee had highly successful interaction with his counter part Yang Jiechi and Premier Wen of he intention was to unfreeze the boundary talks and to debunk foreign-inspired reports about India “ganging up” with the US against China.

Another reason is that President Hu Jintao and his team have got another five-year term from the Party and feel much more confident about initiating new policies without opposition from the old guard hardliners. The faces of the new leaders, who will succeed them after five years and be in command for ten years thereafter, have also been revealed. The Chinese government has now emerged more cohesive, united and committed to implementing the new economic and other goals set by the 17th National Congress of the CPC. The leadership is now more equipped to take policy decisions on its own and initiate now moves to improve relations with India without fear of annoying the hardliners. This opens up opportunities for India to revive the many accords signed and set about implementing them in cooperation with China which too has to keep to its commitment.

The Dalai Lama issue also is an irritant and the Chinese argue that, having given him asylum, New Delhi should have ensured that he did not travel abroad and indulge in anti-Chinese activities and return to and live in India. Even though the Dalai Lama has substantially modified his stand and given up the demand for secession, the Chinese insists that the spiritual leader of the Tibetan Buddhists is engaged in activities aimed at “splitting” the Motherland and sabotaging national unity. No amount of explaining of India’s stand about Tibet being an autonomous province of China, satisfies the Chinese, who perceive a hidden US hand behind his anti-China activities. Interestingly, even though President Bush personally escorted the Dalai Lama to the joint session of the US Congress, which conferred its highest honour on the spiritual leader, the very next week he sent his Defence Secretary Robert Gates to Beijing to discuss defence co-operation between China and the US. The visit yielded an agreement on enhancing military ties between the two countries.

The Chinese leaders will accord a red carpet welcome to Dr. Singh, whose visit is regarded as a highly important event. Three agreements of more or less routine nature are to be signed, but what is more important will be the understanding reached between Dr Singh and President Hu Jintao on steps towards normalization of the situation, including along the unsettled Himalayan border. Since the Line of Actual Control is not demarcated on maps and neither the Indian nor Chinese forces have a precise idea of where it runs along the ground, incidents of aggressive patrolling, sometime called intrusions, are bound to happen. Some Indian experts argue that China wants to drive a hard bargain and keep India guessing on the agenda during the border talks, when resumed. Beijing wants to reassert its claim on the boundary and put psychological pressure to extract concessions. Disagreement over the perception of the LOAC had led to suspension of the talks about delineating it in the Western and Eastern sectors.

Another joint working groups has been set up to assist the special representatives to prepare the guidelines for a settlement. Some progress has been made, during these discussions and points of convergence have emerged. The 11th meeting of the SRs and first meeting of the expert mechanism on India- China river issues took place recently in Beijing. The political guiding principles agreed to by the Special Representatives and about which the former Chinese Foreign Minister had raised some doubts, will be put back in place. Beijing will intensify joint efforts under guiding political principles, hoping that the two sides understand each other, make mutual adjustments and concessions so as to arrive at an early agreement on a framework which would be “fair, rational and acceptable to both sides” on resolving the boundary issue.

The Chinese side argues that the two countries need to deepen mutual understanding and cooperation and develop closer ties in all fields so as to create an atmosphere conducive for a settlement of the boundary question, which will entail taking hard decisions on give and take. China would like to develop transport, trade, tourism and cultural links across the eastern border (Arunachal Pradesh) to encourage freer movement of traders, businessmen, scholars and visitors. Issue of Chinese visas to residents of Arunachal Pradesh may no longer pose any problem. That would, indeed, be a significant step and may eventually lead to Chinese recognition of the State as part of India, as was done in the case of Sikkim, when the Nathu La trade route was thrown open after over four decades. Development of cross-border trade and cultural linkages would help remove mutual lack of trust and promote genuine and a long-term understanding.

China considers the trade through Nathu La as “uninspiring” the volume last year reached only 200,000 US dollars. The real issues inhibiting trade are upgrading of the trade infrastructure on the Indian side and negotiating a new protocol with China which will increase cross-border trade. The total trade between India and China this year will be over $ 30 billion and there is great scope for developing cross-border trade which will be quicker and cheaper to transport. It is only 1,200 km from Kolkata and Lhasa, but 4,400 km by see to Tianjin, the nearest port to Beijing. Opening of trade routes through Arunachal Pradesh would facilitate cross-border trade and reduce the price of merchandise to be traded by both sides for the consumer. But, for this the Indian side has to develop the border infrastructure, about which Defence Minister A.K. Anthony has also complained. This is essential for defence, as well as, economic and other reasons.

The Chinese side will be open to suggestions and proposals to improve relations in all spheres - political, strategic, economic and cultural - and it is for New Delhi to take the initiative, Beijing would also like the two countries to take joint initiatives in world forums to protect mutual interests it is satisfied with the joint action taken by them at the Bali meeting on climate change. It also desires greater Indian involvement in the trilateral - Russia, India, China – to resist outside pressures, build up political trust and strengthening cooperation in combating terrorism, drug trafficking, energy security and resisting pressures on developing countries.

Mutual defence ties also need to be upgraded, with greater interaction among the armed forces and frequent exercises between the armies navies and air forces of the two countries to enhance mutual security and build up trust. Therefore, to give bilateral relations a major trust, both countries need to make forward movements, built up understanding and trust and remove suspicions which have impeded genuine friendship.