Tough days ahead

As the countdown to the next Lok Sabha polls begins, the left parties are becoming more and more intransigent in their attitude to policies. Thus the possibility of the UPA government becoming a lame duck during its last year is real. This apart, the secular forces are being pushed on the back foot thereby giving a real chance to the BJP to come back to power. This would be ironical as BJP is supposedly their number one enemy.

by REPORTER@DAYAFTERINDIA.COM

With only one year left for country to hold fresh elections to decide who would rule center, the constituents of United Progressive Alliance are looking for alternatives as the front has failed on many fronts and there are serious differences between the allies who are part of UPA and those who are supporting it from outside.

The Left parties have made it clear that they will be working for bringing about a new alliance which will keep the two national parties that is BJP and Congress out. The leaders suggesting such a formation, however, do not explain how such a front will secure a majority in Lok Sabha to get a mandate to rule the country. This, however, does not bother the left leaders as they have made repeated calculations on the basis of ideological considerations without bothering about the real situation.

Not only it is impossible to get a majority without such a group being supported by one of the national parties who irrespective of the changes in political fortunes are expected to secure hundred plus seats leaving the rest to be divided between smaller players as well as regional parties. More so there are many regional players who would join a front only if their opponents are kept out.

For instance there is no way AIDMK or DMK can be part of the same group and will have no hesitation in changing sides if their opponents get an entry. Same logic will apply in case of Uttar Pradesh where two major players that is Samajwadi Party and Bahujan Samaj Party will be in different formations as their dislike for each other will overrule all other considerations.

Under the circumstances one cannot help but point out that the choice for Indian voters will remain limited to the groups in which two national parties will be the prominent players. As such it looks as if Left parties have lived mostly in ivory towers and have refused to see the ground reality. They also have illusions of being a national party even though they secure most of their seats from West Bengal and Kerala while Manipur may provide them token representation.

The problem with Left is that its illusions have no link with situation on the ground. Thanks to coalition politics they have acquired influence and power far in excess of their numbers that is five percent share in vote bank and about sixty members which can make a difference between majority and minority in the Government. But this will happen only if Left joins hands with Bhartiya Janata Party who in their own words is their major enemy. Inspite of that it is not preventing Left Parties from making threats and challenging the UPA to sign Indo-U.S treaty for use of nuclear energy for civilian purposes and face consequences.

With Left working on its own agenda that prevents UPA Government to carry forward its programme of economic reforms or to implement the treaty with U.S which it feels will end its isolation in the world and make nuclear technology, hardware and heavy water and uranium available to it to improve our energy security.

The Left while opposing the Indo-U.S deal has also made it impossible for the Government to make such deals with Russia, France and even China. The problem with Left is that they refuse to see the deal in larger context that is an arrangement between India and rest of the world instead of being U.S centric. In words of foreign Minister Pranab Mukherjee it is Indian’s passport to the world.

There is little doubt that Left can make the last year of UPA Government as functioning of a lame duck Government. Such functioning will make sure that the Government which has logical support will probably start falling at a faster rate. If the differences between those who are governing and those supporting it are unresolved it will only help NDA and its main constituent BJP who is considered as enemy number one by Left leaders.

The left by its action is making sure that secular forces are driven on the back foot and BJP which has been on rise again comes back to power. There is no denying the fact that the UPA has been losing ground, and it cannot remain ahead if the fight between the Left and UPA is not resolved soon. This difference will only help NDA in its revival process. As for the Congress the choice is difficult either it has to catch the bull by the horns and face the challenge posed to them by left or buy time and further loose their credibility. Either way it is heading for a disaster as living on borrowed time will not help the UPA or Left.

Besides political challenges, the country also faces serious economic challenge following recession in U.S.A, fall in Indian exports with rising value of rupee as compared to U.S dollar as well as slow down in economic growth. So the road ahead is a choppy one and unless the Government takes decisive action, there will a sharp fall in days to come. One can only say that the Government has been warned and it has a tough choice before them.