The Mini-Mahabharat Ahead

The continued inability of the Congress to redefine socialism and secularism has meant that it does not realize that the people no longer approve of either sops or appeasement to farm vote banks. As a result the BJP has already begun to occupy its political space. The coming Assembly polls are in this context crucial for the Congress. A slip is on the cards in the absence of second rung leaders and this threatens its existence. Unfortunately, like all decaying organizations the sycophants within are hurrying this process.

by HARBANS SINGH

In about a year’s time nine States will be going for the Assembly Polls. The stakes are not as high as the proverbial five villages that led to the great epic war between the Pandavas and the Kauravas but the truth is that they are not any less either. This is surprising as during the past sixty years India has got used to elections, the monopoly of the Congress has been broken, they are fought on different issues for power in the States and the Centre and people too have got used to discarding parties, rather unceremoniously, at regular intervals. The power of the people manifests itself to bring the politicians out of their comfort zones.

However, this time around the elections to the State Assemblies is not going to be a routine matter. Of the nine States that are going to the polls this year Delhi, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chattisgarh are going to make an impact not only on the government in the centre but also on the polity in general. Add to it the fact that next year Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka, Orissa and Sikkim too would be holding Assembly polls then we have a fair idea of the nature and consequences of the battle ahead. This is not to suggest that the elections to Tripura, Nagaland, Mizoram and Meghalaya, the other States that will go to the hustings are of any less consequence. On the contrary, in the emerging scenario it is just possible that the smaller States, like the smaller political parties might come to enjoy a greater say in the affairs of the national politics because of the need to build coalitions of various hues and sizes.

These polls are going to have a bearing on the fate of the two leading protagonists, the Congress and the BJP. After the Congress had staged a comeback of sorts in 2004, it has once again begun to slip and going by the successive debacles in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and Gujarat have taken away the sheen though one wonders why so much was made of limited success in Lok Sabha polls of 2004. The truth must be countenanced by that old party if it is to keep the BJP at bay and the bitter truth is that after having been seriously damaged during the era of Narsimha Rao, the ‘silent Buddha’ of the sycophants of the party and Sitaram Kesri, much was made of the little ground that had been recovered. The euphoria that followed, coupled with the fact that Atal Behari Vajpayee led BJP’s NDA government had to eat the humble pie was a symptom of the malaise that had struck the Congress. As the cacophony of the sycophants made the high command feel as big and important as the splendor of the last Mughals it lost sight of the bitter truth that its reach had been eroded and its vote bank appropriated by parties and leaders that were closer to it.

It was also forgotten that the exit of the BJP led NDA government had a great deal to do with the cavalier manner in which the poor and the common had been treated. Add to it the arrogance that some of the spokespersons of the BJP had come to display and we had a recipe for disaster for that party. The voters were only too gleeful to avail of the opportunity to vote it out and puncture the bloated egos. The lesson, however, was lost on the Congress. Its first mistake was that like the BJP it failed to remember that the economic policies have to be formulated by taking into consideration the need to reconcile the contradictions and in the final analysis even if they fail help a section of the society from making a transition from a battered car to a Mercedes they should be able take care of the basic needs of the poor and the destitute. The Congress alliance like that of the BJP’s has been so engrossed in making the image of India shining that the gulf between it and the voters has grown wider. When it has not done that then it has allowed things to drift, forgetting the dynamics of life when new voters are getting added to the electoral rolls and their needs are not being addressed by State leadership that is too old and tired to have new ideas. The losses in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand and Punjab should be attributed to this trait of decadence and insensitivity.

As result of this when the BJP went for polls in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh it had grown in confidence. It had sensed that the people were restless and that despite casting the charm of Rahul Gandhi on the voters of Uttar Pradesh, the Congress had failed to either build a dedicated force of workers or have the attraction for the charming Gandhis translated into votes. The BJP was in fact fairly certain of its victory in Himachal Pradesh because of the visible disenchantment of the voters and vicious internal strife that is the hallmark of the decaying establishments. The victory in Gujarat was in doubt for a number of reasons. One, the long tenure of Narendra Modi as Chief Minister had made everyone apprehensive of the mood of the voters; two, the so-called opinion makers had mistakenly come to believe that the booting out of the BJP from power in 2004 had a lot to do with the communal politics, especially the post Godhara riots, and the strident and menacing posturing of the Parivar organization; three, the dissidence within Gujarat BJP, a near revolt against Modi; and four, the apparent lack of confidence in his leadership by the saints of Parivar and the RSS itself.

The victory in Gujarat is therefore not only a remarkable achievement for the BJP but also an indicator of what might lie in the future. This victory has re-defined a number of parameters. Voters will come out in support of a leader if he is seen to be untouched by the all pervasive corruption but even more importantly if he has given an administration that is conducive for development. The personal integrity of Narendra Modi was impeccable and everyone agreed that he had led Gujarat to new highs. It must also be added that he was helped not a little by the repeated insinuation that Gujarat, because of the riots, was a rogue State. On the contrary such innuendos only forced the Gujaratis rally around the man in the centre of the storm.

This leads to the issue of communalism, secularism, nationalism and the course that the country is to take in the future. These issues, along with poverty, agriculture and economic priorities will determine if the voters will give their mandate to the Congress or will they decide to consign it to history. It must be understood by the party high command that a dynamic society demands that those who serve it learn their lessons and formulate their policies according to the changing needs. Unfortunately the party continues to cling to outdated clichés, slogans and philosophies. The Congress and a large section of the intellectuals are holding on to a philosophy that was the need of the hour immediately after partition and independence of the country. India had then taken a moral high ground that since it had not accepted the partition of the country on the basis of religion therefore it had demonstrate that Muslims choosing to remain in India had a safe place to live in. The secular principles had been forged out of the desire to make the religious minorities comfortable. Over a period of time this noble intent came to become a tool in the hands of Congress to win en bloc vote and the result today is that there is an equally potent force that decries pseudo-secularism and thereby reap a rich harvest of votes of a generation that resents reservation and appeasement.

The Congress, like the Bourbons of France, neither learns anything nor forgets. As a result when it saw how the Muslims vote, disenchanted by the aftermath of the politics of Mandir-Masjid confrontation, had deserted it, how did it seek to regain their confidence? By setting up Sachar Committee to find out data about the Muslims. And, what did it suggest. It recommended to the government that the Muslims needed reservation. This happened in times when the society was becoming increasingly fractious over the issue of reservation and when many on both the sides of the divide were prepared to wage a battle that would cause havoc.

There should be little doubt that the only party to make capital gain out of this situation is the BJP. The Congress has given an emotional agenda to its adversary at a time when even the Communist leaders are coming to question the relevance of socialism. They have come to realize that one cannot stick to philosophies without questioning their relevance to the current times. Secularism, like socialism is a tool to serve the society but once it becomes blunt or the society outgrows its utility then the tool has to be changed. The Congress did not take long to eject its socialist agenda but is adamant on thrusting its definition of secularism that took shape in a specific era down the collective throats of the people. The people have no patience for this kind of politics. They demand equal playfield after the completion of education. If the high command of the Congress continues to refuse to pay heed to their cry then the results can be disastrous.

The BJP has taken lead over the Congress in terms of leadership too. It has not only Narendra Modi in Gujarat but has P.K. Dhumal in Himachal Pradesh, Shivraj Singh Chauhan in Madhya Pradesh, Raman Singh in Chhatisgarh and a team of vocal and articulate leaders in the centre apart from the support of the saints of various denominations. Contrast this with the Congress and one is shocked at the poverty of leadership. There is Sonia Gandhi and to a lesser extent Rahul Gandhi and then there is a platoon of courtiers who are closer to the wheeler-dealers than the people. The question is that can Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi take on the forces of change on their own. The answer obviously is that it is a very tall order.

It is in this background that the Assembly polls have assumed greater importance. The polls are going to determine the fate of the Congress for all times to come. If it falters then the likelihood is that the fate of its many State units will be similar to that of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar.