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Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee appears to be a closet economist.
Through out his tenure he has, off and on, made statements on the
importance of securing and developing the Indian economy.
Post-Gujarat, his middle path, moderate brand of politics is losing
out to hard-core politics and this has obviously pained the Prime
Minister as is evident from his ‘Musings’ and the confusion created
by statements which appear to slam the VHP, Bajrang Dal and other
parties one day, give grudging support to them the next and,
finally, support them all out. Thus, immediately post-Godhra,
Vajpayee condemned the killings, later equated Hindutva with
Bharatiyata and, in between, accused the minority community of not
coming out against the violence at Godhra.
As an offshoot, he appears to be more inclined,
now, towards the economy than national politics. Thus, all through
the upheavals on the political front, and more so now, he kept the
economy in focus. This is certainly a good development because, as a
leader revered by the public, what he says always has tremendous
impact. However, not being as expert in economics as he is in
politics, he has voluntarily restricted himself to the broader
aspects of the Indian economy.
Thus, in calling for increased market awareness
and urging higher public investment in the capital market he is on
target since India is pretty much at the bottom when it comes to per
capita investment. For the last three years or so, investment has
stagnated. Foreign investors are also not too keen today on India
mostly because of non-economic hassles. It definitely must have
struck them that the general Indian public appears to have
reservations about the safety of their investment in the capital
market which makes them shy to put their own money into it, at least
on any significant scale. The discussions and comments made by
‘Pravasi Bharatis’ at the recent conclave has made this abundantly
clear.
And it is not at all surprising that the Indian
investor looks at the capital market as the last haven to park his
savings. Even now, when bank interest rates are still taking a
nosedive, gold is going beyond his reach and real estate and
property is not as attractive as it once used to be, the small
investor is still reluctant to enter the secondary capital market.
During the heyday of the markets when Harshad Mehta was merrily
ramping up his shares and every IPO was a sell-out, thousands of
companies entered the market and packed their suitcases as investors
literally fell over each other to give them their money, and
vanished. Vajpayee has expressed his concern at the frequent scams
in the stock market. He should attempt to find out why not a single
defaulting company has been brought to book till now.
Take the UTI scam. Officials of the Trust
favoured selected corporates to the hilt, irrespective of the worth
of their shares and when the bubble burst, as it was bound to when
the UTI was left without funds to pay assured returns to investors,
it was the public which had to bear the brunt of the loss through
lower returns and even then it cost the exchequer nearly Rs. 14,500
crore. Many UTI officials have been rather softly indicted by the
Joint Parliamentary Committee which inquired into the UTI scam. Will
the Prime Minister care to find out why not a single one of them has
been proceeded against?
And talking of JPCs and scams, why was it that
the Committee set up to go into the Ketan Mehta scam was unable to
come up with anything specific against any person or company,
staying within the safety of vague generalities? The JPC has, more
or less, sent a signal that the Government is not very keen on
bringing out skeletons in this closet. It is not surprising,
therefore, that the Securities and Exchange Board of India has
exonerated all companies alleged to have been involved in the scam
because it failed to find a connection linking them to the share
manipulations that took place to the advantage of Ketan Mehta.
And what about the L&T/Reliance imbroglio.
Briefly, Reliance, which held around six per cent of L&T, brought
down its holdings to four per cent and, when the price of L&T shares
fell because of this offering, bought back into L&T to the extent of
10 per cent. And that’s not all, Reliance then sold this holding to
Grasim at a premium of 45 per cent. And Grasim, which bought the
shares for the unrealistic price of Rs. 306, then attempted to take
over L&T by cornering retail shares at just Rs. 190 per share. What
was SEBI doing when all this happened? This is not an exercise that
took place overnight—it took weeks, may be even months, to set up.
There were whispers and rumours of what was happening even before
the Reliance/Grasim deal became public. Why then did SEBI not go
into its watchdog mode when the market was fully aware that Reliance
was selling L&T shares?
Yes, the Prime Minister is right that the capital
market is the right place for savings as it not only creates income
for the investor, it also boosts the country’s industrial base with
the cheapest money available in the financial markets. It creates a
healthy trading environment which draws in more investors, both
Indian and foreign and the snowball effect gains tremendous
momentum. But—a big but—all this can only happen when there is
absolute transparency in the capital market, the powerful
bank-corporate-broker nexus is broken up and the regulatory
authority is allowed to regulate without interference from the
Ministry of Finance or any other Ministry or Government body,
including the PMO. There was a very good opportunity for creating
such a break when the then Finance Minister, Yashwant Sinha,
plaintively cried, "but nobody told me" when the UTI scam broke.
But, of course, every knew he was just posturing for public
consumption.
In the first place, it is unbelievable that he
had not even a hint of what was going on and, secondly, if it,
indeed, was true that he was ignorant, that, in itself, should be
the subject of an inquiry.
The public’s hard earned money has been looted in
the many capital market scams and unless it is assured of
transparency and reasonable safety of its funds, it will remain wary
of investing. Covering up and not punishing the guilty of scams that
have become public is certainly not the way to attract the investor.
So, please, Mr. Prime Minister, you are on the
right track but could you pause and reflect a bit on causes while
pushing the need to reverse the trend of dwindling investment?