It was also the deciding vote of Pawar which helped his installation as Maharashtra Chief Minister despite strong opposition from the strong Maratha lobby. In this rise, Pawar again played an important role. The outcome in Maharashtra will have an impact on the fortunes of the Congress, but its impact on Pawar’s fortunes will be even more as he has very little to fall back upon outside Maharashtra. If anyone is aware of the problems faced by the Maharashtra coalition, it is Pawar, so his worry on this account cannot be dismissed lightly. Being an organisation man with his ear close to the ground, he is well aware of the challenge posed by the Shiv Sena-BJP combine; besides there is the incumbency factor. His hope is that the vote arithmetic will work in his favour with Shinde proving to be the decisive factor in securing the support of the Dalits.

It is for this reason that Pawar decided to shed his opposition to Sonia Gandhi, which at one stage had led to the break up of the party. His statement that the Congress and NCP will have to either swim or drown together in the coming elections gave a clear hint about the direction in which he is moving. People like the North East leader, P. A. Sangma may still have doubts about the leadership of Sonia Gandhi, but as far as Sharad Pawar is concerned, the issue has become a closed chapter. For him, there is no choice but to align with Sonia Gandhi as the BJP, with its Hindutva agenda, is poised to undermine his position in Maharashtra. With his personal fortune at stake, Pawar has acted positively and decisively.

The time has gone when the Congress and NCP were keen to nibble at each other with a view to strengthen their own positions; now it is a question of working together to survive. The question, however, is will it work, as the lacklustre rule of Vilasrao Deshmukh for the last four years has considerably weakened the two partners. The opposition challenge posed by the Shiv Sena and the BJP is considerably strong, but fortunately for the ruling coalition it is still divided. This Maharashtra experiment will be the first attempt by the Congress, after the Gujarat debacle, in which it will be picking up allies and working in coalition to avoid division of votes among the secular parties. As such, the poll outcome in Maharashtra will have a large impact not only in Maharashtra but for the entire Indian politics.

It will show if the parties in opposition are prepared to overlook their reservations on the issue of Sonia Gandhi’s leadership and work with the Congress to defeat the BJP and avoid a division of votes among the secular parties. There is realisation in the Congress camp that division of the secular vote made a lot of difference in at least 40 seats in the Gujarat State Assembly which were lost by very narrow margins. If the party had realised this reality before the poll, it could have avoided a complete rout in Gujarat. The State may have gone into the BJP camp because of the Hindutva appeal, but the margin of defeat would have been very narrow for the Congress. If the pattern of Maharashtra is followed by the Congress in other States, one can forecast the formation of a secular front to come into existence before the Lok Sabha poll is held. While the BJP is trying for alliances after the polls, the Congress would like to reach some understanding with parties before the polls so that they avoid a division of the secular vote. The BJP feels that a division of vote among smaller parties helps them as their support from the majority community is almost fixed. Given this scenario, the combinations and alliances that may emerge in the next few months will have an important bearing on the outcome of polls for the Lok Sabha.

For instance, at present, the BJP is enjoying the support of AIDMK and DMK in Tamil Nadu, but one of them will have to walk out very soon. Indications are that, as of the present, the local unit of the BJP is keen on joining the bandwagon of Jayalalithaa and dumping M. Karunakaran at the first possible opportunity. Such poll alignments are not in the pipeline for the Southern states, but they could work in the North as the Congress has very limited support in important States like Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. Any consolidation of secular votes in these States could change the electoral map of the country.

As such, the experiment of consolidating the secular vote will be the major poll plank for the Congress in the months to come while the BJP would like to retain the NDA in its present form and, if possible, expand the same. The coming elections to the State Assemblies will thus act as an experimental station for different political systems and both sides are keen to float new balloons in order to study the public mood. As of now, the mood of the common man has become very unpredictable and no single issue can guarantee a turnabout. But both sides are convinced about the unpredictability of the public mood and will be watching the results with keen interest.