Peace in the State continues to be shattered by incidents of violence engineered to deepen and widen the rift between the communities and to intimidate the minorities. Prime Minister Vajpayee stopped Modi from taking the wheel in July, but was subsequently persuaded by the hard-liners to keep his silence and mind his own business because the result of the election would have a far-reaching impact on the direction of politics at the national level also. Even though he occasionally criticises certain acts of the government run by the BJP or its NDA allies, he is not taken seriously either by Modi or Chautala or Mayawati, assuming that his observations are meant for foreign critics and record purposes.

As during the recent Jammu and Kashmir Assembly elections, the Chief Election Commissioner appears determined to ensure peace during the Gujarat poll with the help of Central forces, if made available in adequate strength, and if the State Government co-operates in deploying the same in sensitive areas. Lyngdoh has warned the communal rabble-rousers in Gujarat to strictly obey the code of conduct and not make communally inflammatory speeches to rouse religious passions and intimidate the minorities. He has promised the non-BJP parties that the Commission will closely monitor the speeches of the BJP-RSS-VHP campaigners to find out if these are on communal lines and call for action. The Election Commission has wide powers in this regard and can force the contestants and their campaigners to observe the law or face action, including cancellation of poll in affected areas. The Commission has done commendable work in revising the electoral rolls and including several lakh persons living in camps and displaced from their normal places of residence during the riots. It must ensure that these voters are not prevented from voting by criminal elements and, even if not living in their houses. The same applies to dalits and backward classes, who have not fallen prey to the communal propaganda and still retain their sense of balance to decide what is in their best interests and which politicians to vote for. Modi has been universally criticised for attempting to polarise the electorate along communal lines, while neglecting the task of relief and rehabilitation and de-ideologising a section of the pro Hindutva police, despite the brief interlude of K. P. S. Gill.

All development activity has been put on hold. Vote is sought not on the basis of actual performance of the Modi Government, but its success in polarising the voters on communal lines and to turn the highly surcharged atmosphere in his party’s favour. Apart from deciding the fate of Modi, the election verdict will certainly have a direct impact on the future of the BJP at the national level. It will establish whether the hard-liners will have complete control of the party apparatus and its decision making and whether Prime Minister Vajpayee’s position will be further weakened, Modi’s victory will strengthen the hard-liners and the Hindutva forces and it will be difficult to remove him, unless members loyal to his rival, Keshubhai Patel, get elected in sufficient numbers and force the Central leadership to ease him out in the interest of party unity. Modi will try his utmost to prevent Patel from acquiring sufficient clout among the elected MLAs to neutralise any threat to him.

Modi’s provocation as regards "assertion of Gujarati self respect and the glory of Gujarat" may have fallen on receptive Sangh Parivar ears during the height of the communal carnage, but the people have now begun to analyse the situation, faced as they are with hard economic realities and deprivation and destruction all round, first caused by the disastrous earthquake and then by the communal riots. A highly industrialised State and contributing a substantial share of India’s exports, is languishing in the aftermath of the riots. Industrial production has fallen, so has employment and income generation as a whole. Many factories owned by Hindus have had to close down for want of ancillaries produced by small workshops run by Muslims, which were either burnt down or closed by their frightened owners. The business organisations such as FICCI and CII have highlighted the plight of the industrialists whose establishments are closed with loss of industrial production and exports.

Thousands of workers have been rendered jobless. The State is still reeling under the impact of its industrial slowdown and consequent economic damage as a result of the government’s failure to rehabilitate the destroyed establishments and their owners. To divert the people’s attention from the economic slowdown distress and unemployment, they are being administered liberal doses of religious propaganda and sectarian hatred. For the religious bigotry and communal frenzy of the extremist fringe which wants to perpetuate the existing order, the whole of Gujarat is being made to suffer economically and in terms of peace and social order.

There is little doubt that the Congress will cash in on the discontent and communal polarisation, but to what extent, will depend on the electoral strategy, mobilisation of forces and the strength of its campaign. The Congress ought to first assess as to what extent it can improve upon its performance of 38 per cent vote (against the BJP’s 48 per cent) in the last Assembly election, even after getting the erstwhile Rashtriya Janata Party vote transferred in its favour. Narendra Modi is trying to divert the people’s attention from his government’s failures and anti incumbency factor by playing the religious card exclusively and appealing to baser instincts in order to work up a pre-election frenzy in the BJP’s favour. The best hope for the Congress lies in consolidating the anti-BJP and uncommitted vote in its favour and enlarging its support base among the dalits, backward classes and minorities, for whose attention there are many claimants, including those in partnership with the NDA at the Centre. Even though the Samata Party and the Bahujan Samaj Party are fielding their own candidates for the purpose of dividing the anti BJP vote, they are doing so by arrangement in order to improve the chances of the BJP candidates. It goes without saying that whatever seats they win, will be at the disposal of the BJP, with which they are aligned at the Centre, to help it in government formation if it emerges as the single largest party.

Lok Janashakti leader Ram Vilas Paswan, who resigned from the Vajpayee government in the wake of the Gujarat communal riots, does not see anything wrong in joining hands with the Congress. He is competing essentially with the BJP for the dalit vote.