Even the newly-elected leader of the Hurriyat Conference, Maulana Ansari, played it cool when the Americans called on him in Kashmir.

The fall out of the struggle between the U. S.-led forces and Islamic fundamentalists in Iraq, Afghanistan and in other parts of the globe has started having its impact on Kashmiri militants. The result is further division and disillusionment in their ranks as far as the role of the Americans is concerned. Many in the country were surprised when Defence Minister George Fernandes played it cool over the role of Pakistan intelligence agencies in the recent attack on the Army camps near Akhnoor as well as on pilgrims going to the holy cave of Amarnath.

Not only did George play it cool, even the Opposition leader in Pakistan, Zafarullah Khan, who was on a visit to India not only criticised the killings of the innocents but went on to declare that these were attempts to derail the peace process between India and Pakistan. The views of the Maulana on the role of the Americans also left no doubt that he remains a supporter of the Taliban and is not prepared to welcome American intervention in the Kashmir dispute which he wants to be resolved between the two countries through bilateral talks as provided in the Shimla Agreement.

Even the newly-elected leader of the Hurriyat Conference, Maulana Ansari, played it cool when the Americans called on him in Kashmir. He wanted them only as friends and not as masters who could dictate terms. Yet another clue was provided about the changing scenario when the Pakistani media virtually ignored the statements of Sayeed Ali Shah Gillani who, after parting company from his colleagues, is trying to set up a separate outfit. The hard-liner who has been the favourite of the Pakistan Government and media so far was virtually ignored. Gillani, a known hard-liner, has been demanding action against the sons of A. G. Lone for having taken part in elections, a demand which has been rejected by the majority in the Hurriyat Conference.

The new moderate leadership of the Hurriyat Conference is likely to join the dialogue process with the Government of India if some face-saving formula is found. At present, the mood in Kashmir is positively for peace, the few incidents of violence notwithstanding. Surprisingly, the violence is more in evidence in the Jammu region and that too close to the border. It is true that the militants have been receiving support from Pakistan in the past with the help of free supply of weapons, safe haven for training and rest, but it would be a mistake if it was concluded that Pakistan has total control over the militants, though it wields considerable influence over them.

In the past, the Jammu and Kashmir Liberation Front which had a majority of locals in its ranks functioned almost independently, till it was eliminated because the hard-core militants stopped giving them support and Pakistan denied weapons and funds to them. Even in the recent past, the faction led by Mohammed Hassan Dar revolted against the leadership based in Pakistan and declared a unilateral cease-fire. Dar was subsequently assassinated by a militant faction. The death of Lone in a public rally by militants was another reminder of the fact that the ranks of the militants are badly divided. Even the father of the present Mirwaiz, Maulvi Farooq, was killed because of factional warfare in the ranks of the militants. The stories of such killings have been a part of militancy in Jammu and Kashmir from the very beginning and one should take care to make a distinction between different groups operating in the Valley. The induction of foreign militants was a result of realisation on the part of the Pakistani authorities that their control was slipping and that the local militants did not always carry out their commands.

In the new scenario in which the decision by Gen. Musharraf, like his policy of a complete turnaround on the issue of the Taliban, his support to the United States of America in the war against terrorism and his decision to send troops to Iraq will certainly have its impact on the Kashmir situation. One more myth that needs to be broken is that the people of Kashmir have always supported Pakistani rulers irrespective of their political leanings. For instance, it may be mentioned that in the Eighties the hanging of the former Pakistani Prime Minister Z. A. Bhutto had led to angry demonstrations all over the Valley which had continued for a long time. During this period, houses of Jamait Islami supporters were burnt down, many leaders attacked and some were even killed. This was done because people believed that the Jamait Islami had supported Gen. Zia and was responsible through association for the killing of Bhutto.

The study of the current situation clearly indicates that the hold or appeal of Pakistan in the Valley is on the decline as a result of recent developments. The change of government in the Valley, the association of Gen. Musharraf with the Americans and his opposition to the Taliban and move to send troops to Iraq are not liked at all. This conclusion is inevitable despite an increase in the number of attacks particularly on security forces. In the words of a seasoned observer, this may be the last flicker before the fire is put out. Irrespective of the assessment, one thing is certain that a window of opportunity has opened because of a division in the ranks of the militants in Jammu and Kashmir and reduced influence or hold of Pakistan on militant groups. Yet another contributing factor is international pressure on Pakistan, particularly from the Americans, which has made it difficult for them to encourage terrorism openly.