Prime Minister Vajpayee’s reaction to the Congress decision to enter into "appropriate electoral coalition arrangements" with secular parties in the next General election betrays a sense of nervousness at the prospect of a serious challenge to the NDA developing in the near future. To further consolidate on the growth of the Hindu Right in recent years, the BJP reiterated at Raipur its commitment to build a Ram temple at Ayodhya, as a major plank of its electoral strategy. To ensure continued support of the fighting arms, the RSS, VHP and Bajrang Dal, it has promised to explore the legislative option to acquire the undisputed piece of land for the purpose.

As expected, the Congress Party’s new line has evoked positive reactions from its potential allies, who seek a quick end to the BJP’s rule at the Centre. But, many hurdles remain to be crossed before a coalition of secular forces takes final shape, because most of the potential allies had at one time or another taken strong anti-Congress positions and fought against it in the Assembly and Lok Sabha elections, thus conferring a direct electoral advantage on the BJP. What the Congress needs to do is to change its overbearing and patronising attitude towards potential allies and others willing to support it to prevent the NDA’s return to power next year.

Ground realities have brought about a sea change in the attitude of some of the parties who now see the Congress as an ally because it is still weak in States where they wield considerable influence. An electoral pact will actually improve their tally and also help the Congress to put up a better show than it did in 1999, when its Lok Sabha score came down to an all-time low. Though a couple of these parties had made Sonia Gandhi’s foreign origin an election issue, they now seem willing to reconsider their respective stands. The Nationalist Congress Party of Sharad Pawar has given a clear indication to this effect, even as its leader has taken a non-committal position on the plea that a final decision is in his party’s domain. The NCP, however, realises that P. A. Sangma’s one-point programme will not take the party far and its obstructionist attitude has not brought it any advantage. Should the Congress manage to secure the largest chunk of seats in the next Lok Sabha, one does not expect the NCP hawks to oppose Sonia Gandhi as the Prime Ministerial candidate. Much wind has been taken out of Sangma’s sails by the debacle his party suffered in the recent Meghalaya Assembly election, which confirmed his own narrow base and rejection by the people of his one-point agenda.

The Congress cannot be expected to repeat a situation when it would have to give outside support to a "third front" merely to keep the BJP out, as it had done in 1996. Such governments are not meant to last, as the brief tenures of V. P. Singh, Deve Gowda and I. K. Gujral prove, and those who still talk of reviving a third front betray a sense of political bankruptcy. They will only help the BJP combine to stay in power, even though they have been voicing their opposition to it on countless grounds. These so-called leaders were catapulted to high positions by strong political forces that sought to dislodge the party in power through a circuitous route. After enjoying temporary spells in office, they passed into history due to their rootlessness and no amount of manipulation can now revive their fortunes. Only those parties which have a strong presence nationally or in the States matter in the final count and the principle of mutual benefit will guide their stand on floating a grand anti-BJP coalition.

The process of dilution of the Congress Party’s former "go-it-alone" started some time ago. The Kerala coalition model was replicated in Maharashtra, where it is in coalition with the NCP; in Jammu and Kashmir with the People’s Democratic Party of Mufti Sayeed and in Bihar with the Rashtriya Janata Dal, although the party unit in Patna is disenchanted with the performance of the Rabri Devi government and fears that its popular base may shrink further. The possibility of the Congress having to play a junior role in more States also should not be ruled out before it can succeed in building a strong and effective national-level alliance to capture power. The BJP, which heads a 22-party coalition at the Centre, will feel its position threatened in the event of the Congress succeeding in enticing regional and other smaller parties into a broad secular alliance. The attitude of these parties, some of whom are prone to allurements by the NDA, will be determined by the pre-election scenario and if they feel that the wind is blowing in Congress favour.

It is recognised that the Congress, with the strongest grass-roots base of any political party in the country, is alone capable of offering a challenge to the BJP-led alliance, which mostly includes parties that regard the Congress as their main rival and a threat to them in States such as Andhra Pradesh and Orissa.