The decision by the Congress Party to try and form a broad front with the help of like-minded parties including all those who are opposed to communal forces in the country has not set the Yamuna on fire. The simple reason being that the of-fer comes with a rider that Sonia Gandhi will remain as the leader of the Congress Party and any group or party joining the coalition will have to accept her leadership. This makes it difficult for many parties who feel uncomfortable with her foreign origin and suspect that in any contest between her and Vajpayee, the leader of the NDA and the Prime Minister at present, she will come out poorly. They were hoping that while seeking allies, the Congress Party will either leave the issue of leadership open or agree to abide by the choice of elected members of the Lok Sabha.

This, however, is not the case and any alliance in future as such will have to be on terms decided by the Congress Party at its Shimla conclave. This has certainly provided some help to BJP managers who have suddenly picked up the issue of her foreign origin, which could be exploited fully in the coming elections. The Congress Party is aware of the impact of its decision at Shimla, but probably had no option because to keep the Congress Party intact, Sonia Gandhi’s leadership is necessary. Without her what will be left of the Congress will only be a collection of rudderless leaders with no base or following. It is a tragedy that the Congress Party which led the freedom struggle and ruled the country for over half-a-century has no second or third line of leadership. Even though it is the ruling party in 14 States in the country, it has no material for national leadership. Even the Chief Ministers ruling the States depend on the Centre or on Sonia Gandhi to provide them support and help instead of being her pillars of strength. In such a situation, the Congress Party sees no future for itself without Sonia, unless her daughter, Priyanka Vadra, is prepared to fill the void. Leaders like Rajesh Pilot and Madhav Rao Scindia were among the few who had found a place for themselves on the all-India map, but with their sad demise, no leaders of national importance have emerged on the scene. Leaders like Arjun Singh, Moti Lal Vohra, Pranab Mukerjee, etc. are too old and tired while others like R. K. Dhawan or Ambika Soni shine only in reflected glory being close to the power centre, and have no qualities of their own.

In such a situation what the Congress has done was an act of desperation; it had no choice or alternative. The only thing running in its favour is that the National Democratic Alliance is in no better shape. In Tamilnadu, it has virtually thrown out the DMK and leaders like Vaiko so that it could tie the knot with Jayalalithaa.

The allies and partners of the NDA are feeling the discomfort of having worked in coalition for so long. The National Conference of Farooq Abdullah has parted company to seek its fortune separately while the Samata Party, thanks to in-fighting and its inability to make any inroads in Bihar, has become a liability instead of an asset. The situation is no better in Orissa where Navin Patnaik has been working hard to erode the goodwill and credit earned by his father. The most stable ally for the BJP in the South is Chandrababu Naidu, but he has always demanded a very high price. So far the Centre has obliged him, but any deviation from the NDA agenda under pressure of the Sangh Parivar on the Ayodhya issue will leave Naidu with no choice but to walk out of the NDA.

Under the circumstances, despite talk of pre-poll alliances, the coming elections will be basically a fight between two majors and their allies in the field fighting for space in their respective regions. The alliances, if any, will emerge after the poll depending on the strength of the respective parties. In this race, either of the two, that is the BJP and the Congress, can take the lead if it crosses the 200 mark.

As far as the Congress is concerned much will depend on its performance in the south that is Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh and Kerala. As far as the north is concerned, it should be happy if it retains its present strength. Any gains will be more than neutralised by losses in States like Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. As far as the BJP is concerned, it has to deliver in U. P. if it has to retain its present strength. There, it has two options; it can win in alliance with Mayawati, a sure success formula or by reviving the temple issue. Both the scenarios carry risk.