Afghan Presidential Election: Hope for Change

Quaisar Alam

Hectic campaigning is underway. And candidates are involved cutting across all political parties. Yes! This is being much debated and discussed internationally because of Afghan Presidential election, due on Aug20. And amidst all these, resurgent Taliban refuse to make a decent receding. So, they are hitting the headlines. They are spilling over to the adjacent area of Afghanistan’s Central Asian border. At least, the latest killing of the police chief of Dasht-e-Archi of the northern Kudzu province indicates so. Top US analysts believe sizable number of “foreign mercenaries” have taken shelter northward of Afghanistan border close to Uzbekistan’s Ferghana Valley.

In the present election, Taliban is making its present felt. The vertical split between the Tajiks, the Uzbekis, the alienation of the Pashtu in the north, and steadily disintegration of Rashid Dostum’s Jumbish are the compelling factors propping Taliban resurgence in Afghanistan. So, the new resurgence of Taliban adds new dimensions to the strategic geopolitics of the whole area.

Karzai may face election fiasco

Until sometimes ago, Afghan Presidential election seemed to be a cake walk for President Hamid Karzai. But the wind of change sounds to blow against the existing regime of the Karzai government. The same old patron of Washington seems to work for the cross purposes of the Afghan government of Karzai. Though the “great game of manipulation” is not directed on the face, yet the United States is waging a rearguard battle to ensure Kamid Karzai’s defeat. The clue of which is not too far to seek. Germany’s sensational report by Stern magazine says all. “British special forces seized “drugs of opium” from none other than the Karzai’s own half-brother compound. No doubt, much expected enraged voices followed. But the media’s purpose solved and damage done against the reputation of Hamid Karzai’s government.

Rightly said, if you want to hang the dog, first give a bad name. Probably, it holds good with Hamid Karzai. US diplomatic quest needs nothing but regime change in Kabul. Reason, Washington is running out of patience owing to Karzai’s uninspiring performance in the first round of the election. At the same time, malicious propaganda continues against the Afghan government. Elizabeth Rubin of the New York Times magazine a Western intelligence official as saying “The Karzai family has opium and blood on their hands --- when history analyses this period and looks at this family, it will uncover a litany of extensive corruption that was tolerable because the West tolerated this family.”

The main candidates in the fray

In the forthcoming election of Afghanistan Presidential election, two main opponents are in the fray. They are: former Finance Minister, Ashraf Ghani and former Foreign Minister Abdullah Abdullah. “I have no doubt that people want change,” Abdullah said in an interview in Herat recently. “Today they are hopeful that change can come.” Even pro-Taliban and pro-jihadi figure in the election. Woman candidates are also in the field to contest the election. However, Chief election commissioner,Azizollah Ludin has questioned the qualification of a large number of candidates. But 54 provincial and two presidential candidates are in the disqualifying list due to links with the anti social elements and divisive forces of Afghanistan.

Taliban’s Threat

Since the Taliban threat still looms large, a group of Taliban fighters made public announcement recently, which read: anyone caught voting in the Presidential election will have his finger --- the one inked for the ballot --- cut off. This mere announcement has sent shockwaves across the region of the Taliban dominated area. It is possible that the local people might stay home the rest of t he country goes to the Presidential polls on Aug20.

“We can’t vote. Everybody knows it,” said Hakmatullah, a villager like many ordinary farmers, who believes only in one thing. “We are farmers, and we cannot do a thing against the Taliban.” “We can’t vote. Everybody knows it,” said Hakmatullah, a farmer who, like many Afghans, has only one name. “We are farmers, and we cannot do a thing against the Taliban.”

US Great game

The Af-Pak policy is underway. So, Washington aspires pro-US regime in Kabul, to keep the war against terrorism on the track. And the American’s perception is that the new dispensation should be pro-American when the existing regime of Hamid Karzai is forced into a runoff. US have already lost faith in the Karzai government. It is not bizarre, majority of the Afghan population have expressed concern over the rampant corruption and inefficiency that has plagued the Hamid Karzai regime. On the other hand, the projected candidate of the West, Abdullah is quite hoping full majority.

“People-centric policy is essential. The lawlessness and insecurity that have plagued the country’s bigger part need to be reversed,” said Abdullah. He further added, “In fighting an insurgency, you lose the people and you lose the war.”

Abdullah firmly believes that he will bring the desired changes in the war-torn country, Afghanistan. His image is based on pro-democracy and against Taliban fight. Abdullah is running with the banner of change, progress and corruption free-society. He projects himself as the link between modernity and tradition. The Afghani people who are close to Abdullah, say diplomatic skills and leadership can work better over the candidates in Presidential election fray. If US calculation goes on the expected lines, Abdullah will have the last laugh, so will be American strategy in the region.

But the Afghan election has another twist too. The role of the Pakistani intelligence is shrouded with mystery. Amidst turmoil in the entire region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, the winning candidate for the Afghan Presidential election is very crucial. Reason is very clear. There is a great deal of connecting links on both sides of the Durand Line of Afghanistan and Pakistan. In the destabilizing state of affairs in Pakistan, Islamabad has a great stake involved in the Afghan election.

Conclusion

Under all these chaotic realities of the Afghan polity, the entire population is a divided house on the ethnic lines. The present election has clearly provoked the creeping polarization. And not surprisingly, every political issue converts it into ethnic overtones. Whatever the nature of the Presidential election, it becomes abundantly clear, the United States somehow or the other has fixed the outcome as per its challenges and priorities in the region. But the million dollar question is: Can Afghan staged election wipe out the tears of the millions of the decade-old-ravaged Afghanistan? How is that, the uni-polar power of the twenty-first century truly believes in the real democracy but aspires merely a “shadow democracy” for others? Analysts believe, it is the destiny of the vanquished, which has been since time immemorial.