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The Sri Lankan Constitution empowers the President to dismiss an elected government by dissolving Parliament one year after its formation.

The crucial month of December is getting closer and closer. And it is feared  that the United National Front Government in Sri Lanka, which does not enjoy too comfortable a rapport with President Chandrika Kumaratunga,may be shown the door in that month. The Sri Lankan Constitution empowers the President to dismiss an elected government by dissolving Parliament one year after its formation. As the Ranil Wickremesinghe-led government completes one year in office in December, there is a possibility that the President may use this constitutional provision against it. Consequently, the political space in the island has begun to fill with suspense and consternation.

However, Prime Minister Wickremesinghe, fully aware of this fact, is making all efforts to checkmate Kumaratunga before she can make any threatening move on the political chessboard of the island. In the purchase of a fleet of vehicles for the President’s security, the Prime Minister and his team may have found an opportunity to rein in Kumaratunga. The UNF government has alleged that irregularities have been made in the purchase of 48 vehicles for the President’s security. To look into the matter in detail, a Cabinet sub-committee has been formed, which will submit its report soon.

It is pointed out that if the report confirms the allegation of irregularities, an impeachment motion could be introduced against Kumaratunga. But then, any move to impeach the President will require the support of two-thirds of the members in the 225-member Parliament. As such, the UNF Government, having just over 120 members in Parliament, may not dare to plunge headlong into a situation which will, except for embarrassment, offer nothing. "The most that can be done is to put a motion on the Order Paper later this year, keep the issue alive and prevent her from dissolving Parliament," a Sri Lankan parliamentarian was quoted as saying by a newspaper. In the battle of nerves, however, the President and her followers do not want to appear weak. Kumaratunga’s spokesperson has already denied the allegations of irregularities in the purchase of vehicles. Now her followers say details of the vehicles cannot be released as they are custom-built for security purposes and making public any information about them will enable the Tigers to get the specifications.

Nonetheless, the fast-changing developments in the corridors of power in the island have betrayed the common people’s expectations of their leaders. However, with the political clock ticking towards the December deadline, a complete return to the bitter bipartisan politics that the Island has seen over the past five decades cannot be ruled out. On the other hand, the peace process is also not moving with the speed it should have been. The LTTE leadership’s resistance to give a firm date for talks in Thailand has stonewalled the solution to the ethnic conflict in the country. Though the Government on its part is trying to make the Tigers aware of the importance of peace negotiations, the outfit insists that unless all truce agreements are fulfilled it cannot hold talks.

Much of the credit for the continuance of the current ceasefire goes to Prime Minister Wickremesinghe who, despite the President’s unhappiness over the modalities of the truce agreements, has been more than generous in accepting the Tigers’ demands. But then, he is well aware of the resentment of the people over their treatment by the LTTE in the east and north of Sri Lanka. Even peace monitors, who usually ignored abuse of the ceasefire agreements by the Tigers earlier, have now recorded complaints of truce violations against the group. According to the Sri Lanka Monitoring Mission, comprising 45 persons from the Nordic countries, the LTTE has so far committed 56 violations. And the three eastern districts—Batticaloa, Trincomalee and Amparai—have recorded the highest number of complaints of truce violations. More than half the number of abductions and harassment has been reported from the eastern districts. Of the 21 abductions by the Tigers, 10 have been reported from Batticaloa, five from Amparai and the rest from Trincomalee.

But complaints of violations by Government forces have also been reported. In this area, 12 of the 23 charges have been from the east. In the northern districts fewer complaints of truce violations have been reported. Vavuniya, Mannar and Jaffna which were strongholds of the LTTE in the mid-1990s, come under the northern districts. "The northern region is dominated by Tamils, that is the reason why fewer complaints have been registered," a Sri Lankan parliamentarian said.

Unlike the northern districts, the island’s eastern part is multi-ethnic. Last month, a clash between Tamils and Muslims took place in Batticaloa which many think was the result of simmering tension between the two communities. The Sri Lanka Muslim Congress, which is a key ally of the ruling UNP, has attributed the reason for the clash in this eastern part of the island to the ceasefire pact.

Several media reports have said that the Tigers have increased money extortion and abduction activities after signing of the truce agreements. Not only that, conscription of children below the age of 17 for their armed wings has also become a prominent activity of the Tigers after the truce pact. Just a few days ago, six teenaged girls recruited by the Tigers fled their training camps and surrendered to the Sri Lankan police in Mahaoya, 346 km east of Colombo. According to officials, the girls, all aged 13 or 14, were among 80 children being trained at LTTE-run military camps in the Sittandy area of Batticaloa district.

But the negative activities of the Tigers have not dented the mental coolness of the Prime Minister although even the President raised a volley of questions on the credibility of the truce pact.