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| Madhya Pradesh | |
| Congress Hat-Trick Likely | |
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The Congress
has been in a dominating position in the last two elections. In
1993, it had captured 37 of the region’s 57 seats while in 1998 it
had won 35. Digvijay Singh has already completed eight-and-a-half years in the saddle. If he wins for the third time, it would be a record. | |
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Digvijay Singh has already completed eight-and-a-half years in the saddle. If he wins for the third time, it would be a record for the Congress as well as for Digvijay Singh. The 2003 Vidhan Sabha elections will be the first after the formation of Chhattisgarh State. The political scenario has changed a lot since then. Chhattisgarh was a Congress stronghold and it used to get a majority in the Vidhan Sabha by winning the largest number of seats from that region. The Malwa region has traditionally been the BJP’s stronghold. However, in the last elections, the Congress had increased its tally from the Malwa region too. On the other hand, its tally from Chhattisgarh had decreased. It was because of its Malwa showing that the Congress could form the government. The Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) had also helped the Congress win the elections as both had a strategic tie-up. Later, Digvijay Singh, with a view to increase the Congress Legislature Party’s strength in the Vidhan Sabha, lured away five BSP legislators. This led to the break-up of the BSP in Madhya Pradesh. This time round, Digvijay Singh may be in trouble as a tie-up is likely between the BJP and the BSP on the pattern of Uttar Pradesh. This would certainly have a damaging effect on Congress prospects and even prevent it from coming back to power. The Samajwadi Party of Mulayam Singh Yadav, which has four legislators in the Vidhan Sabha, is also trying to enlarge its base. Leaving aside a few fringe parties, politics in the integrated Madhya Pradesh were largely polarised between the Congress and the BJP. This polarisation continues even after the formation of Chhattisgarh. It would be interesting to know how Chhattisgarh played its role in bringing victory to the Congress during the last few years. Because of the anti-Congress wave in 1977 the party could win only 84 seats and Chattisgarh’s contribution was 35 seats, more than the Congress got in other regions. In 1990, when there was the Ayodhya wave and the BJP rode to power, the Congress Party’s popular base shrank and it registered victories only in 56 seats. Out of this, the party won 22 seats in the Chhattisgarh region. In the Malwa region, which comprises Bhopal, Ujjain and Indore divisions, the BJP continued to bag the majority of seats till 1993. In 1980, when the Jana Sangh broke away from the Janata Party and re-incarnated itself as the BJP, the party won 37 of the 87 seats in the Malwa region. In 1990, the BJP tally from the region went up to 72. At the same time, its tally in Chhattisgarh had also gone up, which could help it form the Government in the State this time. In Chhattisgarh region that year the BJP had captured 51 of the 90 seats. In 1993, when the Congress returned to power after a stint of President’s Rule following communal riots, the party won 54 of the region’s 90 seats from Chhattisgarh. At the same time, it made inroads into the BJP’s stronghold, Malwa, and won 36 seats in the region. In the truncated Madhya Pradesh Assembly, there are 230 seats (earlier there were 320). Of this, the Congress has 123 and the BJP 83. The remaining seats are divided among the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samaj Party, the Republican Party, the Janata Party and independents. The Congress success in the Malwa region, the traditional stronghold of the BJP, in 1998 is significant. This is a pointer towards the BJP’s decline on its home turf. In this region, the Congress has 58 seats in its bag while the BJP has only 26. However, in the Vindhya and Chambal regions where there are 86 seats, the Congress and the BJP have 30 and 40 seats, respectively. In the Chambal and Vindhya regions, the BSP and the Samajwadi parties have been holding sway since a decade. During the last five years, these parties have further expanded their bases in these regions. During the last elections the Congress was reduced to the third position in more than a dozen seats. Against this background, the Congress will have to struggle hard in these regions. As such, the party would have to repeat its 1998 performance in the Malwa region which has become very crucial for it to retain power in Madhya Pradesh. The BJP also needs extra effort in this region to retain its earlier position if it wants to return to power in the State. In the Mahakoshal region, the Congress has been in a dominating position in the last two elections. In 1993, it had captured 37 of the region’s 57 seats while in 1998 it won 35. Although it lost two seats, its performance was far better than the BJP which could win only 16 and 17 seats, respectively, in these two elections. After 1993, the BSP and the Samajwadi Party have been making strenuous efforts to expand their areas of operation. With the background of their fabulous victories in Uttar Pradesh, these parties hope to increase their tally in north Madhya Pradesh (Vindhya and Chambal regions). Even if they fail, at least they would be successful in keeping their present strength intact. | |
With
only 18 months left for the Vidhan Sabha elections in Madhya
Pradesh, the Congress and the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), the
main contenders for power, have started their preparations. But the
Congress Party, under the leadership of Chief Minister Digvijay
Singh, is far ahead. Having full control over the Pradesh Congress
Committee (PCC) and the Government, Digvijay Singh is aiming at a
hat trick in the elections. PCC president Radhakishan Malviya is a
follower of Digvijay Singh. Moreover, the late Madhavrao Scindia’s
group, led by his son Jyotiraditya Scindia, has completely aligned
itself with Digvijay Singh. As such, Digvijay Singh’s opinion would
prevail in drawing up strategy and in selection of candidates.
