IF the fundamentalists surge in Iran is any indication, the US invasion of Iraq has dealt a blow to the reformist President Mohammed Khatami’s efforts to liberalise the regime and open up to the West. The Guardians Council had barred 2,300 reformist candidates from contesting the parliamentary elections and a majority of the people ignored the reformists’ boycott call just to demonstrate their solidarity with the prevailing anti-American sentiment in the whole region. No doubt, of the 46 million eligible voters only 50 per cent turned up at the polling stations, compared to 67 pet cent who voted in the 2,000 election, yet the fundamentalists put up an impressive show.

In the assessment of impartial observers, by not strengthening Khatami’s hands, Washington had indirectly helped the fundamentalist forces to tighten their grip over the country and sniff out all resistance to their rule. The beleaguered President, who found himself powerless before the conservatives, had nothing to show by way of any gains of his policy of warming up to the United States and opening a comprehensive dialogue. On the contrary, he has been forced to abandon Iran’s covert nuclear weapons programme (with Pakistan’s active cooperation in exchange for money) and throw open its nuclear installations to inspection by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Thus, Iran’s dream of becoming a nuclear power in order to intimidate the Arab world and Israel has been shattered.

The fear of US intervention in the wake of Iraq war without a credible excuse, the hot pursuit of Taliban and al Qaeda activists inside Afghanistan and Pakistan, the pressure brought to bear on Syria and frustrating the hopes of the Palestinians of recovering territories occupied by Israel, have given a boost to anti-US feelings among the radicals in the entire region, which swept away the reformists as well. Even though Khatami had opened the door to a wide ranging dialogue with the US, the conservatives led by Ayatollah Khameni saw to it that Iran stayed on course as far as the Islamic revolution goes and western-style liberalism was not introduced in the country.

In the prevailing atmosphere of fear and mistrust, a conservative victory in the Majlis was inevitable, as the reformists were labelled agents and collaborators of the US. Those close to the President and wearing reformist badges were found in close company with western NGOs. While some of them were demanding political reforms, other advocated close cooperation of the Armed Forces and security agencies with those of western countries. Even an open invitation was extended to Israel to normalise ties, so much so that the Israeli Defence Minister issued a statement reassuring Tehran that it need to fear raids on its nuclear installations. From this the Guardian’s Council, with its strong commitment to safeguarding the revolution which brought them into power, concluded that Iran’s enemies were trying to secure a firm foothold in the country in the garb of NGOs and rights activists and must be booted out and their "collaborators" prevented from controlling Parliament. Accordingly, the head of the Council Ayatollah Ahmad Janati felt elated by the respectable voters’ turnout and remarked that each ballot cast was akin to "firing a bullet into the heart of President Bush".

Similar feelings prevail across West Asia where both pro and anti-US regimes are apprehensive of external interference in their internal affairs on any pretext. If Iran is apprehensive on account of its nuclear weapons programme, whose cover was blown by Pakistani scientists, Syria too is under pressure for disclosing its WMD programme and many US-friendly Arab regimes are unable to get a clean chit from the US about their non-involvement in the Taliban and Al Qaeda activities and covert sympathies for the ideology they preach. The US insistence on pushing political reforms in the region that would destabilise the entrenched authoritarian regimes would also upset both friends and foes.

The conservatives’ victory also heralds the end of the second term of President Khatami though technically he remains in position for another two years. His critics argue that he failed to pull his weight and persuade the conservatives controlling the levers of power to introduce much needed political reforms. He is charged with not showing enough courage in removing the hurdles put in his way by the fundamentalists.

At the same time, it must be admitted that the US action has neutralised the twin threats Iran had faced – from Saddam Hussein, who had waged a seven-year war against it, and from the Wahhabi Taliban, who swore enmity towards the Shiites who dominated Iran. These developments could well pave the way for establishing Shia majority rule in Iraq if and when elections take place. But current indications rule out such a possibility, considering long-term US interests as a Shiite Iraq could team up with Shiite and conservative Iran and create problems for the US. The fear of US intervention forced even countries like Saudi Arabia to bridge differences with Iran within the OIC to help it come out of isolation. The result was that the European allies of the US, including Britain, France and Germany, went ahead with their lucrative contracts in Iran in defiance of sanctions. Even energy guzzler Japan signed a $2 billion energy contract with the Iranian regime to safeguard its oil and gas supplies. In its quest for peace with the western world and to avoid any confrontation in future, Iran has agreed to outside monitoring and inspection of its nuclear facilities, while not giving up development and research related to peaceful uses of atomic energy, which it is entitled to as a signatory to the NTP.

However, western observers do not rule out gradual changes in the policies of the Iranian regime which, regardless of its religious colour, is interested in the country’s economic development to fight poverty and social disabilities. Within the conservative camp changes are now visible as a new breed of politicians that can neither be bracketed with extreme hardliners, nor with reformists, is taking root. The emerging trends are likely to mark the rise of what are called "conservative technocrats" – people who subscribe to orthodox ideology, but who demonstrate a great deal of economic pragmatism.

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