Welcome summer, with deepening water crisis

How good are grandpas?

IT may be too early to say so, but thanks to the robust growth in agriculture, the end of the fourth quarters on March 31, 2004 is most likely to witness another 0.50 to 1.00 per cent growth over and above the 8.1 per cent growth projected by the Central Statistical Organisation (CSO).

We have only the end of the second quarter (up to September 30) figures with us and the CSO itself has said in a press release that the third quarter (Q3) figures till December 31 would be available only by March 31. This means that the Q3 figures would take into account the kharif harvest only. Paddy, which is the main kharif crop, is harvested in most of the country except Punjab and maybe Haryana, between October 1 and December 1, and in some states even later. Along with paddy, jute, sugarcane, a host of kharif pulses, including arhar and mung, are harvested in the kharif season. So are groundnut and some other oilseeds.

However, the value of these harvests were not taken into account, obviously, while formulating the Q-2 estimates. The Q-3 figures will include the value of these farm produce. Even then, the estimates will not include the value of the rabi harvests in their totality. While mustard and gram, the main non-wheat rabi crops, are harvested by March 31 almost everywhere in India, wheat harvesting takes place mainly in April and May. The value to the wheat harvests will, therefore go to constitute the estimates for Q-1 of 2004-05.

On that, one may add here that the area under wheat this year (rabi 2003-04) has gone up from a low of 24.40 million hectares to as much as 27.10 million hectares, higher even than the normal area of 26.6 million tonnes. Even with a comparative low average of three tonnes per hectare, the production will be around 80 million tonnes, the highest ever so far.

If the average price at which wheat is likely to be sold is taken at Rs 640 per quintal or Rs 6400 per tonnes, the value of wheat harvest alone will be Rs 512 billion (Rs 51200 crore).

In the year 1988-89, the GDP growth had registered a 10.1 per cent growth. The reason for this was obviously the bountiful rains during the 1988 monsoon------the highest during the 20th century following the 1987 drought, the worst drought of the last century. The juxtaposition of these two natural events gave the unprecedented boost to the GDP figures on 1988-89.

In fact, a similar situation would have arised in 2003-2004 too, following the year of the disastrous drought of 2002-03. Unfortunately, the south-west monsoon of 2003 was not as bountiful as the one of 1988, when almost no region of the country was untouched by the blessings of the rain god. This year, according to the Meteorological Department, as many as 62 of the nearly 500 districts of the country had received deficient rainfall for the second year in succession during monsoon 2003. This drought has resulted in widespread loss of crops both during the kharif and rabi seasons. Among those districts are four in Maharashtra, 16 in Karnataka, nine in Tamil Nadu and five in Kerala.