DANFES

IT is being described as one more kind of arms race (nuclear weapons to acquisition of latest fighter aero planes already exist) to hit the sub-continent. It follows the bid by India to acquire the Patriot missile defense system from the US, capable of fending off nuclear attacks. It was late last month that the Indian defense ministry had confirmed to news reporters that a four-member team, led by Edward Ross of the Defense Security Cooperation Agency (DSCA), was in New Delhi from February 20 to 24 to discuss the missile defense system.

Reports had followed that Pakistan was not at all happy with the latest developments as it is believed that the Patriots can decisively tilt the balance of power towards India. In the first indication that the top Pakistani establishment is miffed with the developments Pakistan President Pervez Musharraf, who is likely to visit India in the near future to witness an India-Pakistan cricket match, said this weekend that it will not neutralize his country’s military capability. "No, I don’t think Patriots can nullify Pakistan’s missile systems as it is very difficult to have an anti-weapon arrangement, which is so protective that can protect everything. It is not even possible for superpowers. So yes by trying to purchase initially some weapon systems does not mean that our entire capability is compromised,’’ Musharraf said in an interview.

He said Pakistan was against the acquisition of anti-missile systems by India as it is going to put it into another kind of arms race with New  Delhi. "We are against that, but

otherwise as far as defense cooperation by India with any one is concerned, we are taking our own counter measures and by the grace of Allah we are capable of taking counter measures, we have resources available and also we have capability within ourselves to take counter measures,’’ Musharraf said.

It may be recalled that the news about Patriots comes in the wake of India sounding up the US that it is interested in purchasing advanced F- 16 fighter jets for its air force. The fighter jets and the Patriot which can act as a nuclear deterrent will comfortably tilt the military balance towards India. A few months back, the DSCA, which handles all government-to-government military sales, informed the US Congress of a $1.2 billion military package Pakistan that includes eight P-3C Orion reconnaissance aircraft in order track down al-Qaeda terrorists holed up in north western Pakistan and Afghanistan. Observers in Pakistan believe the country is being shortchanged as what Pakistan does need is the strike capability of F-16s (that the US is not willing to sell to

Pakistan) or equivalent aircraft and the nuclear deterrence of the Patriot system to match India.

Reports from Pakistan indicate that the Army top brass is in a state of shock that Musharraf’s closest ally and friend in the "war against terror,’’ US President George W. Bush, could be doing such an about turn on Pakistan. "If India gets the Patriot anti-missile defense system, where do we go, because it would be almost impossible to penetrate with the indigenous Ghauris and Hataf missiles that we have,’’ one analyst has been quoted.

The increased military cooperation between India and the US comes as a follow up of Next Step in Strategic Partnership (NSSP)  agreement signed between India and the US in 2003 year that seeks to enhance ties between the two countries in every sphere including military exchange. The US offer includes the much-touted Patriot antimissile

defense system that tackles aircraft and also tactical and Cruise missiles, C-130 stretched medium lift transport aircraft, P-3C Orion maritime surveillance planes and F- 16 fighters. The US has also offered Perry class frigates and Sea Hawk helicopters, while special operations forces will be looking at chemical and biological protection equipment.

The Patriot is a long-range, all altitude and all weather air defense system to counter tactical ballistic missiles, cruise missiles and advanced aircraft. The range of the missile is 70 km and it can climb to an altitude greater than 24 km. The minimum flight time which is the time needed to arm a missile is less than three seconds and peak flight time is just three-and-half minutes. Patriots were first deployed by the Israelis in the first Gulf War when Iraqi missiles aimed at Israel were intercepted during flight and destroyed. Since then, further advanced versions have been developed. Till date, Washington has transferred this system to key allies Israel, Japan, Germany, Saudi Arabia and Taiwan. The Patriots were used in Operation Iraqi Freedom and have a kill rate of more than 95%.

Both China and Pakistan do not possess this type of anti-ballistic missile capability and the geostrategic location of Pakistani missiles makes the Patriots more effective for India as any Pakistani missile can be stopped in flight within Pakistani air space or much before causing damage in any major Indian city.

The US offer to sell military hardware, including Patriots, to India comes with a much deeper strategic message, apart from the business of arms sales. In the recent past, India’s has had a constant gripe against the US arming of Pakistan with the ostensible reason to take on al-Qaeda terrorists and patrolling the Afghan border. India fears that a militarily strong Pakistan in the wake of US sanctions against supply of similar weapons to India is a threat to its own security. However, it seems that factors such as nuclear peddling by Pakistan to nations inimical to US interests as well as a vociferous lobby in the US detailing Pakistan’s dubious record in controlling terror seems to have indeed resulted in some kind of a re-think. It is also clear that US

considers Pakistan to be a much closer militarily with China, which is never a comforting thought. The momentum to enhancemilitary relations with India follows reports of North Korean missiles that have been deployed by Pakistan reportedly in exchange of nuclear secrets.

In what is being seen as a definite if not decisive shift in strategy it is increasingly apparent that the US is not at all comfortable in engaging Pakistan in the business of sales of arms that are critical for deterrence and dangerous for peace in the region. It is also clear that this circle of suspicion includes China (which is reported to have helped out with Pakistan’s missile program) with the  US unwilling to hear any talk of arms supply to the Asian giant by the European Union (EU).

President Bush on a recent trip to Europe has expressed "deep concern’’ that the European Union is planning to lift its arms embargo against China, suggesting that Beijing might use new weaponry against Taiwan, a move that could pose a threat to US forces and other countries in the region."There is deep concern in our country that  a transfer of weapons would be a transfer of technology to China, which would change the balance of relations between  China and Taiwan, and that’s of concern,’’ Mr. Bush said in a joint press conference in Brussels with NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer.