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DID JIABAO PROMISE THE
UN TO INDIA?
Siddharth Srivastava
D id
he or did he not? Opinions are firmly divided over China’s
support to India’s claim to a permanent seat in the UN
Security Council (UNSC), consequent to the visit of
Chinese premiere Wen Jiabao to India. One shade of opinion
is that the joint statement issued after the meeting of
Jiabao with Manmohan and the categorical re-iteration
during Jiabao’s press conference Tuesday makes it apparent
that China is very serious about extending its support to
India.

The other opinion is that both the statements are very
similar (thus making it obvious that the words are
measured) and very general, without clarifying the
specifics of how China is going to go about supporting
India. Jiabao said: "China reiterates that we attach great
importance to the important role of India in international
affairs. We fully understand and support the Indian
aspirations to play an even bigger role in international
affairs including the UN."
Jiabao’s support to India on UNSC is in a language which
is very similar to the one made by Chinese state counselor
Tang Jiaxuan when he visited India in October 2004. There
has been no clarity on the key issue of veto power or the
process of expansion of the UN, in either. Just recently,
China’s ambassador, Wang Guangya, told the general
assembly that while China shared UN secretary general Kofi
Annan’s
concern that the current situation needed an overhaul, it
could not endorse the formula for change (as suggested by
Annan to be decided by September this year), and would
resist any quick action.
"China is not in favor of setting an artificial time limit
for Council reform and less of forcing through any
immature proposals lacking consensus in the form of a
vote. If consensus is not immediately reachable, they
should continue. The temptation to force a decision at the
summit must be resisted." Wang’s insistence on consensus
is the same argument put forward by USA (which is also
opposing reform to the UN) and a direct affront to Annan,
who has said that while consensus among the 191 UN member
states was ``very preferable, failure to obtain it must
not become the excuse for postponing action.
" As things stand Washington and Beijing have for now
blocked any attempt by India (and three other major
aspirants, Germany, Japan and Br azil
making the group of four) to secure an entry into the UNSC.
A "consensus" in the world body is considered nearly
impossible in the 191-member general assembly and a
virtual turn towards endless rounds of discussions with no
definitive conclusion. India, Germany and other countries
want a time-bound vote in the general assembly on the
issue that has been debated for over 10 years.
Indian foreign ministry officials, however, say that they
have reason to believe that China will in the near future
back its pledge to India by concrete action in the high
forum of the UN. India’s foreign secretary Shyam Saran
said that there was a definite "forward movement" China’s
position and New Delhi, "had every reason to be satisfied"
with China’s assertion that it would be "happy’’ to see
India at the UNSC.
However, commentators such as Manoj Joshi of the Hindustan
Times have argued otherwise. China has said that it
supports India’s bid to the UN, but when it has come to
the specifics, both China and US have been at the
forefront against reforms. Thus, strictly going by what
exists on paper it is the adding billions of the
Sino-Indian trade figures. In the interest of business,
military skirmishes, of course, remain a strict no-no.
This is in keeping with the tenor of way China wants its
relationship with India to develop, some observers have
said. While it is true that India and China have come a
long way since the war in 1962 followed by frigid
relations in the 70s and 80s, the happy interludes in such
vexed issues as re-drawing the borders between the two
countries, have endured because of the eagerness to
capitalize on each others economic strength —
manufacturing, hardware, software and services.
The status quo of the 1993 agreement has been retained
over the border question post the Manmohan- Jiabao
meeting. For the first time China has acknowledged Sikkim
to be a part of India but large regions in the western and
north eastern India remain in the realm of disagreement,
with China refusing to provide maps of the line of actual
control along the western sector. Some Indian officials
maintain that the Chinese approach is to keep border n e g
o t i a t i o n s deliberately defocused with no immediate
resolution in the near future.
While both the countries have been following pragmatic
diplomacy, it is in the face of the humongous rise
in business relations between the two countries. This is
due to the internal dynamism in India and China consequent
to the change in economic structures with both the nations
embracing capitalism with jest. However, it is to the
credit of the Indian and Chinese dispensation that
diplomatic relations have not been
allowed to impinge on economic matters, unlike India and
Pakistan wherein the border and terror kerfuffles have not
allowed the two economies to flourish in tandem.
Indeed, the Sino-Indian relations have followed a path of
high rhetoric including such formulations as Hindi-Chini
bhai bhai (Indians and Chinese are brothers, though India
and China went to war subsequently in 1962), Panchseel
(five principles of peaceful co-existence); Jiabao’s
assertion that the world will look when he and Manmohan
shake hands is in the same spirit of grand statements in
the past — Hu Jintao telling Atal Behari Vajpayee in 2003
that Sino-Indian cooperation could turn the 21st century
into an "Asian century" and harking back even further the
mid-80s when Deng Xiaoping told Rajiv Gandhi that the 21st
century would become an Asian era only if China and India
cooperate.
However, India is always wary of China’s military
ambitions including in the Indian Ocean region as well as
the strong military relations with Pakistan that dates
over five decades. India’s foreign secretary, Shyam Saran,
did clarify post the Tuesday Jiabao-Manmohan meeting that
the India-China "strategic and cooperative partnership"
was not a military alliance and not directed at any third
country. Prior to his India visit, Jiabao was in Pakistan
when the joint production of the JF-17 fighter aircraft, a
project that was initiated because of the hitherto ban on
F-16 fighters by the US, commenced. Wen also spoke of
joint nuclear energy production, making it apparent that
China’s security concerns for the region still veer
against India and towards a militarily strong Pakistan.
As far as UN reforms are concerned, the negotiations will
be protracted. Ramesh Thakur, senior vice rector at the UN
university in Tokyo who has researched extensively on UN
reforms, has written that opposition to UNSC reform comes
from three groups: those with a vested interest in the
status quo, especially the permanent
members; the regional rivals of each of the leading
candidate countries (Pakistan against India, China against
Japan, Italy against Germany, Argentina against Brazil);
and a large group who would see their status diminished
still further with the growth of permanent members, from
the present five to 11. All three groups, he says, have
found it expedient to adopt the tactic of divide-and-rule,
convincing the leading contenders to compete with one
another. Only very recently, he said, have Brazil,
Germany, India and Japan woken up to the realization that
either they will all become permanent members in one major
round of reforms, or none of them will. |