Even as Chhattisgarh Chief Minister Ajit Jogi has been successful in battering the main opposition—the State unit of the Bharatiya Janata Party—by engineering defections twice and bringing disgruntled elements over to the Congress by offering them cabinet berths, he has miserably failed to get along well with a powerful section of his own party. The result is that in the run-up to the Vidhan Sabha elections which are just eight months away, the Congress in the State is riven with factionalism. In this scenario, the rebellion by the veteran Vidya Charan Shukla has got wide acceptability.

With Vidya Charan Shukla having announced that his outfit, the Chattisgarh Sangharsh Samiti, would fight the Assembly elections independently, it is now taken for granted that the Congress Party’s chances of returning to power are bleak. It cannot be denied that V. C. Shukla’s anti-Ajit Jogi campaign has made a tremendous impact on the people. He has succeeded in selling his argument that Jogi is an outsider, that he is a non-Chhattisgarhi and that Chhattisgarh’s future is not safe in his hands. Ajit Jogi is very worried over Shukla’s drive.

Vidya Charan Shukla, overwhelmed by the people’s response, shows confidence that he would be able to send Jogi into the wilderness. Although his elder brother, Shyama Charan Shukla, who is a Congress Member of Parliament, has also no sympathy with the bureaucrat-turned politician Ajit Jogi, he does not intend to align with his younger brother in his campaign against the Chief Minister as he does not want to fall out of favour with 10 Janpath in view of the general elections next year. He is watching the game from the fence. However, V. C. Shukla claims that he has the support of his brother.

Vidya Charan Shukla, who has declined to meet the Congress President Sonia Gandhi unless formally invited by 10 Janpath—actually he has not met the Congress President for the last two years—by his vitriolic criticism of the Jogi Government, has posed a serious threat to his return to power. In fact Jogi faces a greater threat from Shukla than from the BJP in the next elections. The PCC is divided over the action to be taken against Shukla, although it has officially passed a resolution demanding disciplinary action against him. The PCC executive committee, at its meeting on January 29, for the first time took cognisance of the anti-party activities of Shukla and formally asked the party High Command to take action against the party stalwart-turned rebel.

V. C. Shukla’s Chhattisgarh Sangharsh Samiti is being viewed as a precursor to the parallel political formation which Shukla intends to launch just before the Assembly election in November. The PCC resolution does not name Shukla or his organisation and only two executive members openly named his outfit. Ignoring the PCC resolution calling for action against him and as a riposte to it, V. C. Shukla, who was the Information and Broadcasting Minister in Mrs. Indira Gandhi’s government during the emergency, announced at Jagdalpur on January 2 that his outfit, the Chhattisgarh Sangharsh Parishad, would contest the Assembly elections. His announcement is being interpreted as his parting of ways with the Congress. What has boosted the morale of Shukla and his followers and encouraged him to break away from the Congress is the overwhelming response he has been getting all over Chhattisgarh. The announcement, coming close after the visit of AICC general secretary and Chhattisgarh in-charge Ambika Soni, during Utsav-2002 to mark the second anniversary of the State Vidhan Sabha on December 14, is an indication that Shukla’s movement against Jogi has come full circle and his disenchantment with the Congress is complete.

Obviously, V. C. Shukla has rocked the boat of Chief Minister Ajit Jogi. Shukla’s move will not only cut into the traditional Congress vote bank, it will ultimately benefit the BJP and help it ride to power. However, Shukla’s announcement to form a political party parallel to the Congress and claiming it to be the real Congress, has caused no surprise to political observers although it has caused an upheaval in the parent body. Pointers to such a move were already there on December 10 at Rajim, the pocket borough of his elder brother, Shyama Charan Shukla, where Vidya Charan Shukla gave a call to the people to overthrow the present regime in the State as it has failed to come up to their expectations. Their dream could not be realised even after Chhattisgarh attained statehood, as the reins of power were not in the hands of true "Chhattisgarhis". He had said without changing the government, conditions would not change. He said his Chhattisgarh Sangharsh Parishad would realise the people’s dream and make Chhattisgarh a model state. Vidya Charan Shukla got a rousing welcome at Rajim. What was worth noting was the strong presence of a large number of staunch loyalists of Shyama Charan Shukla and Rajim MLA Abhishek Shukla, the son of Shyama Charan.

The root cause of rebellion by V. C. Shukla is his marginalisation by 10 Janpath. He did not take kindly to the choice of Ajit Jogi as chief minister who is considered an outsider in Chhattisgarh politics. It is true that although Jogi was born in Chhattisgarh, his political activities were confined to Bhopal and Delhi ever since his initiation into politics by Arjun Singh He was also not involved in the movement for Chhattisgarh State. As such, the imposition of Jogi on the State was opposed by the Shukla brothers. The elder Shukla however, made a compromise with the situation but V. C. Shukla did not give in. Those who are close to Shukla say that he has moved too far away from the Congress and his return to the party at this stage is not possible. His formal break from the party is a matter of time. And that would be the most crucial phase of his political career. He may rise again or sink to new depths.

The Congress High Command is not oblivious to his moves. That is why, three months back, it had asked the AICC Treasurer and one of the most senior Congress leaders of Chhattisgarh, Motilal Vora, to hold talks with Shukla to probe his mind. But Vora who is himself a bitter critic of the Shukla brothers and a defender of Jogi, failed to do so. On the other hand, Vora has openly come to the defence of Jogi saying that there is no need to remove him. This means Jogi would lead the party in the Assembly elections.