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politics of economics is quite interesting. While economics should take
precedence over politics, look at what is happening in the case of urea
price hike. It is just the other way around. It is now the politics of
populism. The powerful farmer’s lobby combined with the fertiliser lobby
has won as usual.
Finance Minister Jaswant Singh has come to be known
as the "bail out" minister after he had come to the rescue of UTI and
IDBI by providing crores of rupees for their restructuring. Now Singh
has got the tag of "roll back minister" too. His predecessors, Yashwant
Sinha and Dr. Manmohan Singh, (both of whom attempted to cut back the
subsidy) must be laughing up their sleeves at what is happening to Singh
as they also shared a similar fate. What happened behind the scenes is
quite interesting. It is true that the Prime Minister, Atal Bihari
Vajpayee, not only knew about the hike proposal as the budget was read
out to him at least thrice but also in agreement with the measure. So
there is no doubt that the final nod for the roll back came from the
Prime Minister. Jaswant Singh gave enough hints about this fact when he
referred to the adverse comments about him. " So I went to the Prime
Minister and asked him if I was adamant. He said I should ask my
conscience. (Apna Brahma se poocho). So I asked my Brahma. Now if
all sections of the House do not want the fertiliser price to be hiked,
so be it. After all it is a matter of Rs. 700 crores subsidy." This is
how he made light of a hard decision.
Let us look at the facts. The urea price increase
this year was hardly 2.1 per cent as compared to the five per cent hike
last year. No one in the Finance Ministry had thought that there would
be so much protest when Yashwant Sinha got away with a much higher price
hike earlier. As Jaswant Singh had declared, it was a question of a mere
Rs. 700 crores.
Why do the political parties want the roll back?
Their case is that this is the year of unprecedented drought. One
wonders how many farmers are going to buy urea when their lands are
parched? Secondly, there is more awareness about balanced use of
fertilisers now. Even the BJP economists agree that fertiliser use
should be balanced as over-use has resulted in lesser yield. There are
more and more cases of rejection of export-oriented agricultural
produce. Fertiliser subsidy now stands at Rs. 12,000 crores and it is
alleged that a major part of the subsidy goes into the pocket of
fertiliser manufacturers. The dent in the budget would be a minor one.
However, the farmer’s lobby and the political parties which are looking
to the farmers as their vote banks got into the act immediately to put
pressure for a roll back. The stress was not on the amount but the very
idea of subsidy cut. Farmer’s issues have become highly emotional and
this is the price one pays for it.
Every year delegations from several industries and
consumer organisations queue up before the Finance Minister’s room
seeking redressal from various budget proposals. This year, not many
delegations marched to North Block to represent to the Finance Minister.
Perhaps it was because of the nature of the budget itself. The budget
was too soft and there were no major issues or hike in taxes. Industry
too was happy. Consumers were satisfied with the price reductions in the
auto sector and other sectors. The middle class was satisfied with no
additional tax burden.
However, finance ministers all over the world have an
unpleasant duty to perform. Jaswant Singh was no exception. Although he
is not an economist like Dr. Manmohan Singh, he had enough common sense
to see that the urea subsidy had to be cut and it was only good for the
farmers in the long run.
However, the politics of subsidy is something
different. No political party wants to annoy the farmers and this is
true of the BJP too. There is so much at stake when the BJP is going to
directly face the Congress in the four Assembly elections to Madhya
Pradesh, Rajasthan, Delhi and Chattisgarh in November. In fact, Singh
had taken trouble to visit the BJP office in Ashoka Road and sat with
the party president, M. Venkaiah Naidu, to hear the party’s view before
the budget.
The Rajnath Singh committee report on taxation was
studied. Kelkar’s recommendations were more or less dumped. So when
Singh announced the urea hike, Naidu was taken aback. He was the first
to rush to the Prime Minister immediately after the budget speech and
insisted on roll back. Andhra Pradesh Chief Minister N. Chandrababu
Naidu who took up the case with both the Prime Minister and the Finance
Minister soon followed. He not only deputed TDP leader Erran Naidu but
also personally called up both the PM and the FM to lodge his protest.
Then of course, others like INLD chief and Haryana Chief Minister
Chautala, Trinamool Congress chief Mamata Banerji and others. However,
it was Agriculture Minister Ajit Singh who put the maximum pressure on
the PM to withdraw the measure and he succeeded.
Once the pressure mounted, the Finance Ministry also
swung into action and basically looked at four options. One was to
provide direct subsidy to farmers. This was found to be unwieldy and
impractical on account of the amount of procedures involved. The second
was to import urea from abroad, which was available at much cheaper
rates to flood the market. This too was not found favourable, as not a
tonne of urea has been imported after the 1995 urea scam. No officer or
minister is willing to sign the file for import. The third option was to
make the fertiliser public sector undertakings bear the burden. The last
was to withdraw the subsidy cut which ultimately seemed to be the
sensible and easier option. So where does that leave the economy? A soft
budget will become softer. The roll back is only going to speed up the
fiscal anarchy. The opposition is already talking of roll back of diesel
cess. It is a question mark whether the government will not yield once
again. The subsidy issue will remain untouched next year, as it is
election year once again. The political parties have to make up their
mind about long term economic planning and short-term populist measures.
Only then will the economy go on the right track.